Monday, January 27, 2014

2014 SUPERBOWL

Those of you who follow this blog religiously (i.e., nobody) will have noticed that I began picking NFL playoff games in the 2010-2011 season, which means I have picked three Superbowls prior to this one. In 2011, I took the Steelers over Green Bay. Then in 2012, I chose the Patriots over the NY Giants. Last year, I took the 49ers minus the points and then watched the Ravens (almost) romp. I'm 0 for 3. Then there was the 2012 presidential election. I liked Romney in that one. How did he do?

This year, I'm taking Denver minus the 2 ½ points. A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of my little mind, and since I still believe an ability to throw the ball down the field is a prerequisite for success in the NFL playoffs, I have to pin my hopes on Peyton Manning. Denver's adjusted yards/pass number is 7.3, best in the league. Seattle's is 6.6.

Defensively, Seattle gives up an amazing (adjusted) 2.6 yards/pass, while Denver's number is a merely decent 5.2 yards/pass. Seattle led the league in interceptions with 28. Seattle gave up a league-best 231 points (only Carolina and San Fran joined them in the under-300 category). They truly have the best defense in the league.

On the other hand, Denver's accomplishments on offense were even more astonishing. Denver scored 606 points, which no team had ever done, and the second-highest number in scoring offense was Chicago's, with 445. Put another way, the Broncos scored 37.9 pts/gm, while the second-best offense in the league scored 27.5/gm.

This game, unlike many Superbowls, may very well be decided by the officials. Seattle's pass defense is not especially subtle or nuanced. It is simply brutal. Receivers coming off the Denver line will be pushed, grabbed, and knocked down. That's how the Seattle defense plays and it's how they have been allowed to play. It is not much of an exaggeration to observe that a flag might be thrown on the Seattle defense on every Denver pass play. Just ask Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco what he thinks of the way the officials have treated the Seattle pass defenders.

The referees will set the tone for this game in the first quarter. Certainly, they won't flag everything the Seahawks do; at this point in the season, after the Seahawks have been allowed to cheat all season, it would unfair to take their “game” away from them completely. On the other hand, what Denver has accomplished on offense this year deserves a certain amount of respect as well, and I would hope the zebras will not allow the secondary simply to flatten Denver receivers every time Peyton steps back to pass.

Copyright2014MichaelKubacki


Sunday, January 26, 2014

THE LAND OF THE SETTING SUN

In a recent article, Mark Steyn describes contemporary Japan as a sort-of dystopian theme park characterized by an “earnest childlike wackiness, all karaoke machines and manga cartoons and nuttily sadistic game shows.” The demographic meltdown in Japan has spawned a number of recent articles, all attempting, more-or-less unsuccessfully, to explain what has happened, why Japanese culture is dying, and what the island will look like in 2040, 2060 or 2100. I guess this is one more of those articles.

The arithmetic is inexorable. The fertility rate currently stands at about 1.39 babies per woman, a level from which no society has ever managed to recover. Since 2006, there have been more deaths than births in Japan. In 2012 there were 212,000 fewer people than there were at the end of 2011. It may be hard to see in the cities, but rural areas are depopulating rapidly. Small towns are empty, farmhouses are abandoned, and wildlife has taken over areas that once were developed.

Plummeting birthrates have also created a “gray” society, where there are more adult diapers sold than baby diapers. By 2040, the median age throughout the country will be 55 years. (The median age in the retirement community of Palm Springs, California is 52.) The collapse of Japanese society will likely occur long before that, however. Any young person capable of leaving Japan will do so rather than wait around for the nation to become a nursing home.

Europe does not face the same spectre of depopulation that Japan does, of course, because there are people in France and Belgium and Sweden and Italy who still have babies. They are the religious ones. They are the Muslims. Sweden in forty years will still have people in it, they just won't be blond and Lutheran; they will have dark hair and they will worship in mosques. The difference is immigration. Japan has none to speak of, so it is slowly emptying. The cities remain full (and the subways), and the rents are high. But the countryside is gradually returning to nature. Where once there were farms, now there are forests, and brush, and bears.

Japan is different in other ways as well. Italians are not reproducing either, but in Italy there is no sekkusa shinai shokogun, or “celibacy syndrome.” Italians (and Swedes and Spaniards and Greeks) still want to have sex. Young Japanese, however, do not. No, really. They're mostly uninterested in sex, dating, relationships, and everything connected with them. Really.

In Japan, of those under thirty years old, 30% have never dated. And of those unmarried people in the 18 – 34 demographic, 61% of men and 49% of women are not currently in any sort of romantic relationship. Even among couples of child-bearing age, 40% of marriages are categorized as “sexless” by the Japan Family Planning Association, meaning that such couples “rarely or never” have sex.

Why is this happening? Well, while Japan is racing toward extinction, French and Italians and Norwegians also are in a death spiral from lower-than-replacement-level fertility, and they will get there quick enough. (Trivia question: What is the most popular name for a boy baby in Belgium? Answer: Muhammad.) And the reason, wherever this is happening, appears to be the same. The churches are empty. Atheists do not reproduce much. And who can blame them? Without a transcendent meaning to life, what's the point?

When pollsters ask the Japanese about God, 70 – 80% of them say they do not believe in God or any religion. This is an extraordinary number, among the highest in the world, and it probably explains why the Japanese face the worst, and most rapid, demographic meltdown. There remains a tradition of Shinto and Buddhist ritual observance for funerals and weddings and the honoring of ancestors, but these are no longer religious practices, and God is not involved.

Here's a theory on the death of Japan: it's our fault.

Until, and during, World War II, the religion of almost everyone in Japan was something we now call State Shinto, under which the Emperor was a divine figure. Following the allied victory, emperor-worship was abolished. It became a crime. Religious observance in Japan declined rapidly, and apart from a very small number of Jews and Christians and Hindus, belief in the divine largely disappeared. And when the divine disappears, babies eventually stop getting born.

(The foregoing is an absurdly oversimplified description of Shinto and the kami, or “divine,” status of the Emperor, of course, but the history is true.)

There is no surer way to destroy a people than to destroy their belief in God, and that is what the U.S. and Douglas MacArthur did to the Japanese. The militaristic character of Japanese culture and religion certainly had a lot to do with starting the war in the Pacific, and we cannot blame MacArthur for crushing the institutional worship of the Emperor after that horrible, bloody conflict, but a more enlightened conqueror might have seen the wisdom in mobilizing a post-war army of Christian missionaries to replace the beliefs that were being banned. If Japanese people were Christians today, they would be in churches, they would be having babies, and they would still be here fifty years from now.

Copyright2014MichaelKubacki


Thursday, January 23, 2014

SOJOURNERS

In all the political talk about immigration and what is to be done with the 12 million or 15 million or 25 million illegals, it is assumed by both sides in the debate that the vast majority are caught in some twilight zone and yearn for a “path to citizenship,” or some legal way “out of the shadows.”

Undoubtedly there are such people, but I suspect that category of immigrant is much smaller than we are led to believe. I don't personally know any immigrants like that, but I do know some members of a group that is almost never discussed---the sojourners. These are Mexicans who work here, send money back to wives and mothers and other family, and have no intention or desire to become Americans. Because the border is so difficult and dangerous to cross, they remain here, working for years or decades, but they fully intend to go home someday to the family they have supported and the houses their money has built. The ones I know carry photographs of their families and of their homes. And some of these homes can only be described as mansions. “A hundred dollars here,” one of them said, “is a thousand there.”

The lucky ones work entirely for cash, but many are forced to use a fake social security number so that at least some of their earnings get taxed. It's the cost of doing business.

Much of the immigration debate is fueled by political forces that do not necessarily wish to address the reality of the situation. The reality includes a lot of sojourners, but their existence doesn't fit anyone's vision or anyone's political agenda, so they are never discussed.

Copyright2014MichaelKubacki


Monday, January 20, 2014

WEED GOES LEGIT

The legalization of marijuana in Colorado and (soon) in Washington state, represents a tipping point. Like gay marriage, legal weed is now inevitable. Maybe we will have dope states and non-dope states for some years to come, but the culture has changed. This political battle is over.

What is interesting about this, politically, is who won. It is the first major Libertarian victory in American history. Most of the electoral juice came from the Left, of course, but the legalization could not have occurred without the Libertarians and the Libertarian wing of the Republican party.

The Left would never have done this alone. They have historically been behind the most draconian drug laws in America because, first of all, the War on Drugs was just the sort of big government program leftists love, and had the added benefit of allowing Democrats to appear tough on crime. The largest beneficiaries politically and financially have always been blue state Democrats like Rep. Charlie Rangel of New York City because the Drug War was a steady source of federal money. All the big Democratic cities with major drug problems lined up at the trough as well.

One ironic aspect of legalization is that it appears to be, at least in part, a reaction against the nanny state. Those of us who have grown weary of the constant drumbeat against potato chips and second-hand smoke and trans fats and sweet drinks and wheat and beef welcome this kind of rearguard action as a blow for freedom, regardless of our fondness or lack thereof for weed itself. And it's a major blow. All the other mini-fascist incursions of the punitive Left will now be much more difficult to justify. If I can legally smoke a joint in the park, what self-respecting policeman is going to write me up for sucking down a 2-liter Pepsi?

Do not be surprised if the next states to legalize dope are those with traditions of fierce independence and a distrust of government. These will be mostly western and southern states, rather than states dominated politically by leftist elites in big Democratic cities. Utah will legalize weed long before Illinois does. Texans will toke up before Massachusetts.

Copyright2014MichaelKubacki


Friday, January 17, 2014

2014 NFL PLAYOFFS---Conference Championships

New England @ Denver (-5 ½)

The Patriots-Broncos tilt on November 24 was one of the more entertaining games of the year. Denver went up 17 – 0 in the first quarter, which featured a 60-yard fumble return, and entered the second half ahead 24 – 0. That's right. The Broncos were winning that game 24 – 0 before they lost in OT, 34 – 31.

As I mentioned last week, teams that can throw the ball down the field present a problem for Denver, and one thing you have to give the Patriots credit for is that they are a team (with or without gangster-killers), who can throw the ball down the field. Denver's loss of cornerback Chris Harris to a knee injury does not help the Bronco pass defense, which is not much better than mud and sticks and twigs to begin with. Even Gisele Bundchen understands the significance of Harris' departure.

The Broncos win the yards/pass contest against the Broncos by a 7.3 to 5.6 score. They (slightly) lose the defensive yards/pass battle by 5.3 to 5.1. They have been a much better team over the course of the season, they still are, and they probably squeak by in Denver. Considering Harris, however, and considering the history of the Brady – Manning wars, you CANNOT take Denver and lay these points.

If nothing else impresses you, consider this. Brady is 18 - 7 in playoff games. Peyton is 10 – 11.

Take the points. I still make Peyton a very slight favorite to win the game, but a Patriot victory would not be a surprise.

San Francisco @ Seattle (-3 ½)

These two met twice in 2013, with the Seahawks crushing the 49ers 29 – 3 on September 15 and San Fran winning 19 – 17 on December 8 on a field goal with 0:26 on the clock. Seattle wins the yard/pass battle 6.6 to 6.2 as well as the defensive yards/pass contest 3.9 to 4.5.

In other news, Seattle has given up fewer points this year than any other team. Also, before I looked at the numbers, I assumed San Fran had had a better second half of the season than Seattle. In fact, both teams went 6 – 2 over the last eight. Seattle outscored their opponents by 106 points over that stretch, while the 49ers outscored theirs by 61. And did I mention that the Seahawks have the best pass defense in the league?

It's not that San Fran is weak or has a lot of warts and nicks and cuts. San Francisco belongs here, in the Conference Championship. But Seattle is superior on both sides of the ball, especially in Seattle. I'm betting the Seahawks, minus the points.

A Note on the Games So Far

It is natural in the playoffs for players to get excited, to feel the pressure, to dread getting beaten, and that usually means there will be a bit more holding on the line of scrimmage. In addition, as receivers invade the defensive secondary, there may be more frequent collisions, and some hard feelings may result.

It is the job of the officials to maintain order in the game, and if that means throwing a few flags in the first quarter in order to set the proper tone, so be it. I'm disappointed because the refs have not done so. As they say in the broadcast booth, “The refs are letting them play today!”

In fact, the refs are not letting them play, they are letting them cheat. The game is less fun to watch when every receiver gets his jersey grabbed by a defensive player, defensive linemen routinely get tackled on their way to the QB, and nothing is called. (Or the occasional penalty flag is thrown, seemingly at random.) These are intentional violations of the rules. They are not accidental penalties, like jumping offside or colliding with a receiver when a pass is in the air. Holding a wide receiver's arm is always volitional. It's cheating, everyone knows it's cheating, and the only hope of the player who does it is that he will get away with it because the refs do not notice, or allow it to happen.

Cheating should not be allowed. There are just so many reasons to banish it. First, it rewards less-skilled players whose primary ability is their knowledge of how to cheat without being detected---this effectively punishes the best athletes by narrowing the gap between true superstars and those who are merely adequate. It also cheats the fans, like me, who just want to see the best athletes doing amazing athletic things. That's a big reason I watch football, and if the speed, and the moves, and the smarts of a great receiver can be thwarted by a defensive player who doesn't have the ability to cover him but is allowed to cheat---well, all football fans are losers. And finally, of course (you knew this was coming), there's the kids. Professional sports are supposed to be a meritocracy, and that's basically the lesson we want children to take from it: be the best, work hard, and you will succeed. The NFL is now presenting kids with an alternative path to success: figure out how to cheat and not get caught. We all know this alternate path is there, and it always has been, but the difference is that cheating is being legitimized. If that's how you need to win, well, just win, baby You can still be a hero, even if you cheat. Kids get cynical soon enough. We don't need to be teaching them there is no intrinsic value in honesty and sportsmanship.

All of which brings me to the San Francisco @ Carolina game and the embarrassing spectacle of wide receiver Anquan Boldin (SF) and safety Mike Mitchell (Caro), trying to figure out their respective gender identities on national TV in front of 30 million fans.

The entire first half of the game (and parts of the second) was dominated by these two jabbering at each other, bumping helmets, and delaying the game with a “qui-es-muy-macho” narcissistic psycho-drama that had nothing to do with the football game and everything to do with their own insecurities. Their behavior should not be confused with that of traditional, aggressive male athletes. Reggie White would get in your face if you tried to back him down, as would Lawrence Taylor, Brian Urlacher, Troy Polamalu, and thousands of others. Football is a violent sport and tough guys play it. The prancing, drag-queenish quality of Mitchell's and Boldin's pas-de-deux, however, was something else entirely.

It was embarrassing to watch. I am aware that Boldin and Mitchell are both young men and that young men are not always certain who they are and whether their primary sexual attraction is to boys or girls, BUT I DON'T CARE. I just wanted to watch a football game.

And again, the refs did nothing about it. Yes, there were a few flags thrown, at random moments, but that sort of intermittent reinforcement actually encourages players to cheat, act out their fantasies, and otherwise ruin the game. Both Mitchell and Boldin needed to be ejected from the game. Harsh justice, certainly, but that which gets tolerated (and rewarded) gets repeated, and the Mitchell/Boldin show should never be repeated.

BONUS---Scoring and Not Scoring

Over the last thirty years, the top scoring offense has made it to the Superbowl fifteen times. (That's almost half the time.) The best scoring defense has made it ten times. (You do the math.)

This year, Denver's top scoring offense (606 points) might wing up playing Seattle's league-leading defense (231 points allowed) in the Superbowl. The last time that happened was the 1990-1 season when the New York Giants (best D) beat the Buffalo Bills (best O) in the game that established Bill Parcells as a certified genius and Scott “Wide Right” Norwood as Buffalo's answer to Bill Buckner.

As luck would have it, this odd duck, statistically speaking, turned up the previous season when the 49ers (top-scoring) won the Superbowl against the Denver Broncos (stingiest defense).

The one other time this happened in the past thirty was in the 1984-5 season when the high-scoring Miami Dolphins fell to the league-best scoring defense of San Francisco.

You may be wondering whether any team has had both the highest-scoring offense and the stingiest defense, and in the past thirty years, there have been two teams to achieve this: the 1996-7 Green Bay Packers and the 1985-6 Chicago Bears. Both won the Superbowl in blowouts. The New England Patriots were, in each case, the victims.

Copyright2014MichaelKubacki


Friday, January 10, 2014

2014 NFL PLAYOFFS---Round 2

New Orleans @ Seattle (-8)

Of course, it's hard to picture a Saints victory here. How would it happen? Does the entire Seattle starting secondary run into each other during warm-ups and suffer concussions before the game even starts? There is not much difference in the quality of these two offenses, but the Seahawks' defense gave up 14.5 points per game, lowest in the league. The Saints' defense was very good as well, but of the four NFC teams left, well, they're fourth.

This is the end for New Orleans. Their victory in Philly (by a hair) exposed some Eagle weaknesses but did not really make the case that the Saints are capable of going on the road and beating a genuine Superbowl contender like the Seahawks.

The Saints' worst loss of the year, 34 – 7, came in Seattle on December 2, and I don't think much has changed in either team since then. Drew Brees remains a superstar and he will score more than 7 points, but he won't score enough to win.

You have to like Seattle here, but do they cover? I offer no opinion.

San Francisco (-1) @ Carolina

This is the easiest pick of the week. Carolina's adjusted yards/pass is a full yard higher than San Fran's (7.2 vs. 6.2), and the Panther defense is also stronger. Carolina should be favored by a touchdown. Carolina should be favored even if the game were in San Francisco. Carolina beat San Francisco in San Francisco in Week 10, and though the final was 10 – 9, the Panthers dominated the game. Carolina has another advantage as well---they are not coached by Jim “I'm the dopey” Harbaugh, the guy who is largely responsible for San Francisco's loss in last year's Superbowl.

There are two reasons San Fran is favored.

The first is that Carolina has not been nearly as dominant in the second half of the season as they were in the first half. Though they went 7 – 1, and beat San Francisco, New England and New Orleans, most of the scores were close. They only outscored their opponents by 27 points in the last eight games, so that makes them suspect.

The second reason is that San Francisco has cable cars and sushi and Allen Ginsberg and Lawrence Ferlinghetti and a quarterback with tattoos all over him. They're cool and they have lots of gay friends and multiple piercings. Carolina, on the other hand, well, where is it anyway? Is Carolina a city or is it one or those generalized geographical NFL team areas like “New England” or “Arizona” or “The Middle East”? And if this so-called “Carolina” is not actually a city, what city do they play in, exactly? Memphis? Tuscaloosa? Hong Kong?

Cam Newton is now a real quarterback. Carolina wins outright.

Indianapolis @ New England (-7)

Is a retractable roof a dome? Is Indy a “dome team?” I ask because I was wondering about the last time a dome team came to New England in December or January and beat the Patriots. I'm still wondering. I looked back through the year 2000 and I couldn't find a loss like that. Maybe it never happened. Maybe it happened in 1987. In any event, I'm predicting it won't happen this year either.

New England's 12 – 4 record this year may represent one of the best coaching jobs Belichick has ever done. At times, it seemed that all his receivers were in prison or in the hospital or catching passes thrown by Peyton Manning, and yet he somehow managed to find guys Brady could throw the ball to. Even with a great record and a first-round bye in the playoffs, you would still have to describe this as a rough year for the Patriots.

But they're better than Indianapolis and Brady is better than Luck, especially in New England. The yds/pass numbers are about the same, New England's defense is a bit better, and then there's the home field. This doesn't look like a championship season for the Patriots but they will beat the Colts.

As for laying 7 points, I decline. The line is about right.

San Diego @ Denver (-9)

Denver is the best team in the tournament by far, but this is a tough match-up for them. Though the Broncos have ten blow-out wins (by 10 or more points) this season, they have appeared mortal against teams with star quarterbacks and good passing attacks. Brady beat them in New England, Andrew Luck beat them in Indiana, and Romo put up 48 against them (though Dallas lost). San Diego, with Phillip Rivers, beat them as well. In Week 15, the Chargers went to Denver and handed them their only home loss of the year by a score of 27 – 20. (Earlier, in Week 10, the Broncos had beaten the Chargers 28 – 20.) In terms of passing yards given up, Denver has the 29th best pass defense in the league. It is their one area of vulnerability.

The line here is nine points, the biggest spread of the weekend, and it should be. Denver leads SD in yds/pass by 7.3 to 6.9; the Broncos lead in defensive yds/pass as well (5.3 to 6.6). These represent the largest spread in any of the games this weekend. Manning can outscore anyone, and he will outscore Rivers. Denver remains the favorite to win the Superbowl.

But Rivers will score. The Chargers seem to get more dangerous each week, and their somewhat supernatural win over Cincinnati last Sunday must give one pause.

I'm taking these points.

BONUS---Blowout Wins

In any sport, a team's record in blowout victories is a good indicator of just who is good and who is not. While sports commentators seem obsessed with one-run baseball games or buzzer-beaters in basketball, these records have very little predictive value. Winning a baseball game by one run probably means you were lucky that day. A 12-3 victory, on the other hand (or lots of them), probably means you are better.

I refer to blowout wins a couple of times above, and I used a definition of 10 or more points. In the following table, I use 8 or more points simply because it yields more results.

2013 Regular Season Record in Blowout Wins (8 or more points)

Denver 11 – 0
New England 5 – 0
San Diego 5 – 2
Indianapolis 6 – 4

Seattle 8 – 0
San Francisco 9 – 2
Carolina 7 – 2
New Orleans 7 – 2

Copyright2014MichaelKubacki



Tuesday, December 31, 2013

2014 NFL PLAYOFFS

There are times when the raw numbers of a team's season do not tell us how good they are. This year, after losing to the NY Giants in Week 8, the Eagles were 3–5, and looked like they were on their way to 3–13. Then Nick Foles figured something out, and the Birds won 7 of their next 8.

Then there's Green Bay, with its lackluster 8–7-1 record. Stuck in the middle of their season, however, is a 2-5-1 mini-season when they were quarterbacked by guys not named Rodgers. In the other games, Rodgers was 6-2. And now, for the playoffs, he's back.

These are well known stories this year, as is the perennial tale of New Orleans, the “home” team. As usual, the Saints are 8-0 in Louisiana and 3-5 elsewhere. What you may not have noticed is that Cincinnati has the same home/away split.

Other teams have started strong and faded. There's KC, of course, but there's also Carolina, whose blow-out wins all came in the first half of the season. The most surprising fall-off was probably Indianapolis, which was outscored by its opponents over the last half of the season.

There's a lot of this stuff to keep in mind, even though I will be relying heavily, as always, on yards/pass adjusted for interceptions. This single statistic remains the only reliable measure of success in the playoffs and the Superbowl. Rushing yards, turnover ratios, sacks, FG%---all these things have their place, and each can be used to describe some aspect of football reality in a season or a particular game. What they cannot do is predict a winner. Adjusted yards/pass, however, though it has little descriptive value, acts like a chemical reagent to reveal something that would otherwise remain hidden---who is likely to win. In the morass of men and motivation and data and hope and history and expectation that is a yet-to-be-played game, there is a team destined to prevail, though its identity is obscured. Adjusted yards/pass dissolves that morass, lays bare the football truth and shows us that identity. It burns away the silt and clay and shows us the gold. Adjusted yards/pass itself has little to do with the football we see. Its meaning resides within the game rather than upon its surface. Adjusted yards/pass is the vehicle of the game's consciousness.

In the NFC, the six seeds are as follows:

1. Seattle
2. Carolina
3. Philadelphia
4. Green Bay
5. San Fran
6.New Orleans

My rankings are (with adjusted yards/pass in parentheses), are:

1. Carolina (7.2)
2. Seattle (6.6)
3. Philadelphia (7.2)
4. San Fran (6.2)
5. New Orleans (6.6)
6. Green Bay (6.1)


I also look at defensive yards/pass, which is not as important as offensive yards/pass, but it is the best measure of pass defense available. Here, since Seattle has the best pass defense and Philly one of the worst, it makes sense to flip them in the rankings.

For the AFC, here are the seeds:

1. Denver
2. New England
3. Cincinnati
4. Indianapolis
5. KC
6. San Diego
My rankings:

1. Denver (7.3)
2. Cincinnati (5.4)
3. New England (5.6)
4. KC (5.4)
5. San Diego (6.9)
6. Indianapolis (5.5)
The abberation is San Diego, with the worst pass defense in the tournament, though Rivers remains one of the league's elite quarterbacks (and he had a great year to boot). There are reasons they are 9-7 and needed miracles to make the playoffs.

The longterm prediction in the AFC is easy. No one is close to Denver. They will play in the Superbowl. It's hard to throw New England out of the mix, so I suppose I'll grant them a puncher's chance, but the other four have no shot in Colorado, even if they get there.

The NFC is much tougher. Carolina, Seattle, Philly and San Fran all have some realistic hope of playing for the ring. On the strength of Drew Brees, I would even give New Orleans a chance were it not for the fact they have played their last home game this year.

N.O. @ Philly (-2 ½)

It would be easy to take Philly here, and I do think Philly wins the game, but as a betting proposition it scares me. It is true that New Orleans lost five games on the road this year, but they lost mostly to good teams. The worst was St. Louis (at 7-9). The other thing that concerns me is that Drew Brees is always capable of lighting up a bad pass defense (e.g., 49-17 over Dallas in Week 10), and Philadelphia's is not good. The Eagle secondary appears competent, but pressuring a QB is not Philly's strong suit.

I can imagine Drew Brees putting up 42 points and winning this game. I can also see da Iggles posting 49 and beating him, but I ain't betting on it.

K.C. @ Indy (-2 ½)

Andrew Luck is a good quarterback and he is probably good enough to win a Superbowl for a good team someday, but I am tired of hearing him annointed as the next Brady, the next Manning, the next Brees, etc. He's not there yet and he may never be. Cam Newton had a better year than Andrew Luck. Philip Rivers had a much better year. And Alex Smith had at least as good a year.

Indianapolis was 11-5, which consisted of going 6-0 against the weak Tennessee, the wretched Jacksonville and the dreadful Houston, and then a mere 5-5 against the decent teams in the league. They were outscored by 4 points over the last eight games of the season. In addition, the Colts were BLOWN OUT (ten or more points) four times this season. Teams that challenge for the Superbowl almost never lose games like that. Denver didn't this year. Seattle didn't. New England didn't.

And yet...

Indianapolis is a puzzle. All my numbers tell me KC wins this game outright, so I'm taking a live dog here. However, even though I have grown to hate the hype about Andrew Luck (I don't even like his name!), the Colts, in the space of a month, beat San Francisco, Seattle and Denver. They also beat KC two weeks ago, though at that point most of the KC starters were homeless guys Andy Reid had picked up next to the dumpster behind Arthur Bryant's. The game was meaningless.

The heck with it. KC's offense is better, their defense is better, and Andy Reid has been resting his guys for most of December. KC wins.

S.D. @ Cincinnati (-7)

Cincinnati crushes teams at home. They have the best pass defense in the tournament. In the AFC, they have scored the third-most points and given up the least. San Diego, on the other hand, while it does feature the wonderful and charming (and fertile) Philip Rivers, has the very worst pass defense in the playoffs. They really shouldn't even BE in the playoffs because all they had to beat in their final game was more of Andy Reid's homeless guys.

I'm laying these points. You can never be entirely comfortable with a big line like this in the playoffs, but the Bengals are significantly better than San Diego, especially in Cincinnati. I view this as a mismatch.

San Francisco (-2 1/2) @ Green Bay

Looking at the Packers over the course of the season, one cannot like the Packers here. But then there is Aaron Rodgers, in Green Bay, in the playoffs, in January. Is he all better? Is he a bit rusty from his injury layoff? Are there things he can't do? I don't know the answers to these questions. I don't know if Mrs. Rodgers knows the answers to these questions. I don't even know if there is a Mrs. Rodgers. Maybe he's gay, like all the other NFL quarterbacks nowadays.

San Francisco is an excellent road team (6-2, +10.5 points/game). Though they had some hiccups early in the season, they have won six in a row and appear to have all their parts in working order. They are, as far as I can tell, better than Green Bay (and in a much tougher division). I have to pick San Fran to win this game. I won't bet on it.

Copyright2013MichaelKubacki




Friday, December 27, 2013

THIS & THAT VI

A young lady I know teaches Spanish in a charter school in Philadelphia, and many of her students are Puerto Ricans. She mentioned the other day that she knows two pairs of twins with exactly the same names. In other words, there are twins in one of her classes who are both named Juan Carlos Menendez. In another class, there are twins who are both named Louisa Lopez. (I'm making up the names, but you get the idea.) She hypothesizes that this twin-naming practice is a (goofy) Puerto Rican custom.

I asked my co-worker Benny (my main source for all things Puerto Rican) about this, and he immediately started chuckling. “Yeah, it's true,” he said. “I have twin cousins and they're named Nina and Lena. I never saw twins with the exact same name like your friend did, but Hispanics love their little jokes when they name kids. My mother is a twin and her name is Carmen Maria. Her sister is named Maria Carmen. I never thought it was a Puerto Rican thing, though. Mexicans do the same thing.”

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There is one day each year when virtually all Chinese restaurants in America are closed---Thanksgiving. If you and your fiance work in Chinese restaurants (and most of your friends do, too), it might well be the day you pick for your wedding.

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One of the more arcane legal doctrines thrust upon first year law students is the Rule Against Perpetuities, which arose in the Duke of Norfolk's Case in 1682. The Rule is often stated as follows: “No interest is good unless it must vest, if at all, within 21 years after the death of a life in being at the creation of the interest.” The gist of it is that there is a limit on the length of time a man may exert control over his property through his Will or trust instruments. A dead man cannot tie up title to land or other property forever.

As part of the Common Law we inherited from England, the Rule Against Perpetuities became part of the law in every state until twenty or thirty years ago when several states repealed it by statute. In one of these states, South Dakota, bankers quickly realized the potential of attracting enormous fortunes into the state by creating trusts that were practically eternal.

To simplify (actually, to oversimplify), what happens, a Very Rich Guy pours his assets into a trust and names his heirs (children, grandchildren, etc.), beneficiaries thereof. At that moment, the VRG doesn't own the assets anymore, so they do not pass through his estate (and probate) when he dies. Over the years, earnings from the trust will be paid to the heirs, and those sums will become subject to personal income tax, but the trust assets themselves never come under the Federal Estate Tax.

Avoidance of the feds is the purpose of the Dynasty Trust, as these things are called. If the heirs actually came into possession of the VRG's assets under a standard Will, the Federal Estate Tax would snag about 40% of it. And that process would be repeated for each succeeding generation. Instead, the repeal of the Rule Against Perpetuities in South Dakota means that the descendants of VRGs will be able to live off the trust assets for hundreds of years.

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cybernation, n., (cyber + hibernation), the avoidance of harsh wintry weather by remaining indoors to shop, play games or view entertainment on line.

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There was another school shooting in Colorado a few weeks ago, which means there are new demands for “gun control.” There are many ways in which schools might be secured, of course, but the Left doesn't seem to have any interest in doing that. Instead, they prefer to use these public shooting events as yet more fuel for their continuing campaign to disarm the innocent.

I have written before about “gun-free zones,” but there are actually two types of them.

The first type (let's call it Type-A), typically includes schools, many other public buildings, malls, and restaurants. Virginia Tech was this sort of “gun-free zone.” These are the most dangerous places in America, and they are where virtually all mass shootings occur because the only people who take guns into Type-A gun-free zones are killers and psychopaths. Decent, law-abiding types like me would never do so. It's against the law. The result is that when a lunatic decides to take down a dozen of his fellow humans in a festival of blood, he does it in a Type-A gun-free zone because he knows it will be a long time before anybody there stops him.

There is another kind, however. Type-B gun-free zones are places where serious efforts are made to keep guns out. Type-B zones exist, and they don't have any guns in them.

Federal courtrooms are Type-B gun-free zones, for example. You can't get into one without going through metal detectors that are manned by armed guards. Airplanes are also Type-B zones. We are often annoyed by the process of checking everyone and feeling up your nine-year-old daughter and searching in grandma's Depends, but passengers on planes don't have guns anymore, whether they are nuns or consigliores for the Gambino family or 20-year-old jihadists. Once you get to your seat on an airplane, you can be reasonably assured the guy sitting next to you will not shoot you..

The same process could be put in place in schools. It wouldn't be cheap, and it would take a long time to get every child in America through a metal detector every day, and with 100,000 schools in America, there would be weak spots and guards who become complacent, and the people who run many of our schools are often hopelessly incompetent so it would still be possible for a determined and clever madman to fight or trick his way into a building full of helpless children and kill a pile of them. But it would be a lot more difficult.

I'm not exactly recommending this, you understand. It's not a very good solution to the problem because of the trouble and cost and the very real danger that the system could be breached and that if it were breached, the body-count in a particular incident could be much higher. A much safer alternative would be to have lots of guns in schools, like they do in Israel. There is no such thing as a gun-free school in Israel. Some schools have armed guards, some have armed teachers or administrators, but all of them have guns in the house. It's a different situation, to be sure---they are worried about terrorists rather than loonies---but the goal is the same. Protect the kids. And Israel does a much better job of it.

But here in the USA, where the Left will not allow teachers or guards or anyone to fight back against people who want to kill children, maybe the Type-B gun-free zone is the best we can hope for. It seems a shame we have to tolerate these attacks, which average about one per month, just to provide the Left with ammo for their political arguments, but this situation has been in stasis for some years now. Considering the political impasse, metal detectors and TSA-like bureaucracy may be the only way America can address the problem.

Copyright2013MichaelKubacki



Saturday, December 21, 2013

UTAH---WHERE ANYTHING GOES


A number of commentators have predicted that once gay marriage becomes widespread, the legalization of polygamy is inevitable. There would be no logical argument against it. Marriage traditionally has been recognized and supported by civilizations as a means of protecting women, socializing men and nurturing children. But if it becomes accepted (as it obviously is) that the primary purpose of the institution is not to support families but rather to celebrate love and to sanctify loving relationships, everything changes. If it's only about love, well, why shouldn't gay people be allowed to marry each other? Love is love, and gender has nothing to do with it.

But of course, if gender has nothing to do with the reasons we officially dignify marriages, why should number? If society believes that the recognition of loving relationships is the purpose of marriage, why shouldn't three people marry each other, or ten? Polygamists are certainly as capable of love as are gay partners, so once gay marriage is accepted, there is no logical basis for drawing a line around “the couple.” Two is OK but three is wrong? Why?

But while the acceptance of gay marriage will lead inevitably to legal polygamy, “inevitably” seems to be happening a little quicker than anyone thought it would.

In Utah, with its history of LDS polygamy in the 19th Century, the ban on polygamy resides in an anti-cohabitation statute. A man who lives in the same house with several unrelated women violates that law because they are presumed to be (and almost certainly are), in a polygamous marriage. I don't know of other states that have laws like this, but then, there are no other states with Utah's history. The first anti-cohabitation statute was actually imposed upon the Utah Territory by the federal government in 1882. The suppression of polygamy was a condition of Utah being admitted as the 45th state in 1896.

Last week in Salt Lake City, in a lawsuit brought by the family in TLC's reality show “Sister Wives,” a Federal District Judge declared Utah's anti-cohabitation statute in violation of the First and Fourteenth Amendments to the US Constitution. The effect is to decriminalize polygamy in Utah.

Utah, like every other state, still has a bigamy statute, which provides that a person may have only one “official” spouse at a time, but this is of no significance to anyone. Polygamy was always a religious practice and an unofficial arrangement rather than something you registered down at the courthouse. The end of the anti-cohabitation statute means that polygamy is now legal in Utah.

In an ironic coda to the decriminalization of polygamy, a different Federal District Judge in Salt Lake yesterday ruled that Utah's law prohibiting same-sex marriages violates the US Constitution. Gay marriages are now being performed in the Beehive State.

Copyright2013MichaelKubacki



Sunday, November 17, 2013

THE SAME OLD SONG

Hillary Clinton's book “It Takes A Village” is, conceptually, quite simple. It consists entirely of a list of America's problems along with the solution for each. There are a lot of problems. In fact, it is surprising how many problems there are, but Hillary somehow comes up with a solution for each one. And the truly stunning aspect of “Village” is that each solution to each problem requires the federal government to get bigger in some way---for new rules to be written, or new taxes to be levied, or new government functionaries to be empowered. P.J. O'Rourke's famous two-sentence book review neatly captured the Hillary philosophy of governance: “Washington is the village. You are the child.”

As far as the Left is concerned, there is always a big-government solution. There is always a new bureaucracy to be built, or a wealth redistribution program to be expanded, or a new tax regimen to be imposed, or a freedom to be curtailed, or a world-government institution to be constructed. And after witnessing this process for several decades, those of us who do not share the statist utopian vision come to realize that the cart is actually pulling the horse. The “solutions” do not arise in response to the “problems.” Rather, the solutions are the entire point of the exercise. The goal is redistribution of wealth, or confiscation of property, or elimination of an inalienable right. The “problem” is identified only to justify the “solution.”

Otherwise, why would the “solutions” always be the same? If the global climate is getting warmer, why is the only “solution” to create international governing bodies with plenary powers and transfer vast amounts of wealth from rich nations to poor ones? If some people say things that offend other people, why is the only “solution” to use the coercive power of the government to silence the speakers? If there are a small number of Americans who find it difficult to secure medical care, why do all of us have to buy insurance products we don't want, pay for other people's abortions and buy Larry King his Viagra?

The list is endless. For public schools, the only “solution” the Left ever proposes is more taxes and more spending, no matter how much money has been wasted and no matter how many decades the schools have been failing to educate children. For the EPA, there is never a “solution” that does not limit a landowner's use of his property, that does not reduce its value, that does not impose the sort of centralized mandates that characterized the Soviet Union's environmental oversight at the Chernobyl nuclear plant. And if a lunatic shoots a dozen people for no apparent reason, why is the “solution” always to make it more difficult for me to defend myself against the next lunatic who comes along?

Never does the “solution” involve empowering individuals to make their own decisions and live their own lives. Instead, there are only new rules and new taxes, new licenses and permits, and the relentless attack on traditional freedoms.

When the Left agenda never changes, it is easy for us conservatives to see what's coming, and also to see that the Obamas and Bidens and Kerrys and Pelosis and Clintons who propose all these “solutions” don't care about me or my freedom or my republic, and have no real interest in the problems they claim to be so very concerned about. The “problems” are merely part of a necessary rhetorical exercise in the continuing process of gathering power into the state. Identifying a “problem” is simply a predicate to the exercise of a bit more coercion on the rest of us.“Power is not a means; it is an end,” wrote George Orwell. “The object of power is power.”

Copyright2013MichaelKubacki







Tuesday, November 5, 2013

THIS & THAT V

In a Rex Stout mystery from the 1930's, I recently stumbled across a discussion of ortho-cousins and cross-cousins, terms with which I was unfamiliar. Ortho-cousins are your first cousins from your parent's same-sex sibling. Cross cousins are your first cousins from your parent's opposite-sex sibling. Your father's brother's child is your ortho-cousin, as is your mother's sister's child. The child of your father's sister is your cross cousin, and so is the child of your mother's brother.

This distinction used to matter in a lot of places and it still matters in some. It is most significant with respect to incest laws and taboos. Though most of the world outside the US permits marriage between first cousins, there have always been places where ortho-cousin marriage was, and is, considered incestuous but cross-cousin marriage was permitted.

There are also places where ortho-cousin marriage is preferred. In England several hundred years ago, for example, property (especially land) passed exclusively to male descendants, and a marriage of a man to his father's brother's daughter would have the effect of keeping the family's wealth intact. This principle remains important across the Islamic world, where cousin marriage is very common. In much of the Middle East, marriage to a father's brother's daughter (“FBD”) is considered a man's legal right, and the FBD may not marry another unless the man consents to waive his rights.

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On Saturday, October 12, the SNAP (food stamp) program in Louisiana experienced a series of service interruptions involving the Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) system. When a SNAP recipient takes food items to a cashier and presents a SNAP card, the EBT system compares the amount of the purchases with the amount of food stamp money the bearer has available in their account. There's a limit each month, in other words. On October 12, however, when SNAP cards were presented to cashiers at a Wal-Mart in Springhill, Louisiana, the limits did not appear on the cashier's screen.

This presented the management at Springhill Wal-Mart with a choice. They could shut down SNAP sales completely until the problem was fixed, they could apply a per-customer limit to SNAP sales ($30, let's say), or they could simply allow any and all SNAP sales to proceed regardless of the quantity.

For whatever reason, they chose the last of these alternatives. And all hell broke loose. Not only did SNAP customers race through the aisles filling up multiple carts of food but they called their friends and alerted them to the bonanza in progress. Within minutes, the store was packed with “customers” frantically filling carts with whatever food products they could stuff into their shopping carts, getting the food through the check lanes and into their cars, and then returning to the store to fill up more carts. All of it was a race to get as much food out of the Wal-Mart before the EBT system got repaired. When SNAP limits finally did begin to show up on cash registers, people simply abandoned their full carts and walked out.

This was not, let us remember, one or two or five or ten dishonest people. This was a frenzy of thievery that subsided only when the computer got fixed. Aisle after aisle and shelf after shelf of canned goods, dairy, meats and frozen foods were emptied. At the end, the only food left in the store was what had been abandoned in shopping carts when the EBT system recovered.

The news reports were bland, of course. It was an odd story from a Wal-Mart, and Wal-Mart is basically the lowest common denominator of nationwide retail so it produces its share of odd stories, but there was no hint of what this event said about the people involved or the human condition or the human spirit. Even to raise such an issue, or suggest that what people did was morally suspect, would be wrong or judgmental or even (OMG!) racist, I guess.

And I thought, “Wow. Am I really that out of it? Am I truly that old? Am I the only person left in America who remembers when poor people had dignity?” Because I do remember it. I remember it quite clearly. When I was young, in the 1950's, there were a lot more poor people around, both black and white, and they had a lot less than poor people do today, but the sort of instinctive stealing that occurred in Louisiana would never have happened back then. People may have been poor but they worked for what they had and they respected themselves. They got dressed up on Sunday, and they dressed their kids as well, and they all went to church together. There are still such people around, of course. The “working poor” are still among us; in fact, I work with some of them. But there are not nearly as many as there used to be, and there are a lot more of the debased welfare-dependent shoppers in Springhill than there ever were before.

Contrary to left-wing ideology, crime and poverty do not correlate very well with each other. The Great Depression, for example, was a time of very low crime rates across the US. The kind of thing that happened in the Springhill Wal-Mart has very little to do with poverty and a great deal to do with the loss of self-respect that accompanies dependency on welfare benefits. What happened at Springhill is what regularly happens now that socialist values have become embedded in the permanent underclass that was created by LBJ's Great Society and nurtured by the American left for the past fifty years.

A couple days ago, the Senate Budget Committee reported that over the past five years, the US government had distributed $3.7 trillion in means-tested welfare benefits. This does not include purely state welfare benefit payments and it does not include benefits that are not means-tested, like Social Security. The $3.7 trillion is about five times the amount spent by the federal government over the same period on education and transportation.

Margaret Thatcher spent her eleven years as Prime Minister re-privatizing industries that British socialists had nationalized in post-war Britain. In her speeches, she often emphasized that the problem with socialism, in Europe and the UK, was not merely that it was an ineffective economic system, but that it destroyed human beings:

“Socialism turned good citizens into bad ones; it turned strong nations into weak ones; it promoted vice and discouraged virtue . . . it transformed formerly hard working and self- reliant men and women into whining, weak and flabby loafers. Socialism was not a fine idea that had been misapplied, it was an inherently wicked idea.”

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In the ancient art of falconry, there are two methods of hunting ducks.

In the first, the falconer takes his raptor to a pond and, if he is lucky, finds some ducks. After tossing a stone into the water so the birds take flight, he then releases his falcon. Soaring and swooping at up to 80mph, the falcon hits a duck in midair, kills it and brings it back to earth. The falconer races to the spot where the falcon is now feeding on the duck and steals the catch, giving the falcon a bit of meat for his trouble. That is how it is still done today.

The second method is no longer considered sporting, but it required great skill and provided a hefty reward when it succeeded. The hunter would seek a brace of ducks sitting on shallow water and, when he found them, would silently unhood his falcon and release it into the air. With the falcon circling above the pond, the ducks were now trapped. They would never take flight with a bird of prey in the air above them, so the hunter would wade into the water, wring their necks one by one and put them in a sack. All except one, of course. He would throw the last duck into the sky as a reward for his hunting partner.

The relationship between man and falcon is the fascinating aspect of falconry. It's a business arrangement, pure and simple. The bird is sheltered, fed and cared for. In return, he provides assistance to the man when they hunt. But the birds are not “domesticated.” A man and his falcon never become friends and the falcon remains a wild animal throughout the relationship, which may last years or may end whenever the falcon decides to fly away and not return. And they sometimes do.

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On Monday,October 21, a 12-year-old boy in a Sparks, Nevada school fatally shot a teacher and wounded two other students before killing himself. Two days later, the papers reported:

As they try to understand what prompted a 12-year-old boy to open fire at his school, district officials were examining an anti-bullying video that includes a dramatization of a child taking a gun on a school bus to scare aggressors.”

The video was shown to the shooter and his fellow students as part of National Bullying Prevention Month. The behavior depicted in the film was apparently presented as a “bad example.” This disturbed 12-year-old, however, may have had a different interpretation.

This dreadful tale follows on the heels of a report in the Journal of Criminology. Seokjin Jeong, an assistant professor of criminology and criminal justice at UT-Arlington, reported that their study of anti-bullying programs in all fifty states revealed that students exposed to these programs were actually more likely to become victims of bullying after exposure to a program. He theorized that anti-bullying programs teach potential bullies new bullying techniques. They also may illustrate ways to escape responsibility by using the “right language” when confronted by teachers or social workers.

The term “unintended consequences” is insufficient here. We need a different term to describe training programs for schools that actually make an undesirable activity more likely to occur. “Paradoxical consequences”? “Indoctrination boomerang”?

D.A.R.E. (Drug Abuse Resistance Education) is the most famous of these feel-good time-wasters. It has now been around for thirty years and has been dumped into the heads of tens of millions of American schoolchildren. Yet there have now been a dozen studies concluding, as did the National Institute of Justice in 1998, that children subjected to the D.A.R.E. curriculum are more likely to drink alcohol, smoke cigarettes and use drugs than kids who somehow manage to avoid it.

There are many reasons for this phenomenon. One is the use of role-playing games where children may act out scenes of bullying (or purchasing drugs) in order to learn how NOT to do those things. In fact, role-playing can actually provide practice in activities that children might otherwise be too frightened to engage in.

The other reason often cited for indoctrination boomerang is that the programs tend to “glamorize” the behavior they seek to eradicate. There is some truth in this, I suppose, in the sense that spending millions of bucks on drug education or anti-bullying programs (instead of teaching math, for example), delivers a message that these topics are way more important than they actually are.

A bigger problem, however, is that children are lied to by the adults who design these things, the kids resent it, and they retaliate by ignoring the advice. Kids hate being lied to, they often know when it is happening, and the natural childish reaction is defiance. D.A.R.E. never tells kids that drugs are fun, or cool, or can get you laid, for example. And anti-bullying programs never teach kids that the most effective way to stop a bully is to pop him in the beezer. Never.

The lefties who create these things get millions in tax dollars in order to usurp the role in moral education that families have always provided. They know better than the rest of us poor slobs, you see, what our children should be taught about right and wrong, bad habits, what it means to be a good person, and so on. In order to advance what Thomas Sowell calls “the vision of the anointed,” they take money out of our own pockets and use it to inculcate our children with their superior values.

It's wonderful that many kids are not fooled. The phenomenon of indoctrination boomerang is something I celebrate. My son, for example, might not be the libertarian free-market conservative he is if he had not attended Masterman High School in Philadelphia and had not been force-fed the silliest imaginable left-wing drivel every day. He and others like him give me hope. They react to the lies and the intrusion into conscience in admirable ways.

If these indoctrination programs were 100% effective, I guess none of our kids would be bullies and none of our kids would ever fire up a doobie, and no guy would ever pat a girl's bottom in the hallway in high school, and nobody would ever eat a potato chip or buy a 32-ounce Coke. Some of those things might be good in some sense, but there's a price to pay for letting the anointed tell everyone what to think and how to behave, and the price is that we all wind up living in a place very much like East Germany.

Copyright2013MichaelKubacki


Sunday, October 20, 2013

THE 2013 WORLD SERIES

The Boston Red Sox are approximate 13-10 favorites to beat the Cardinals and win the Series. The line is not far off.

Both Boston and St. Louis won 97 games during the regular season. Each led their respective leagues in runs/game. Both led their leagues in batting average with Boston hitting .277 and St. Louis hitting .269. (The AL team is always higher because of the DH, and usually much higher. The Cardinals' .269 is actually “higher” than the Sox's .277, but not significantly so.)

The Boston ERA of 3.79 was 6th in the AL and the Cardinal's ERA of 3.43 was 5th in the NL, so there's not much to choose from in that department. (AL ERA's are always higher than those in the NL, also because of the designated hitter.)

Boston is clearly the best team in the American League and St. Louis is easily the best in the National League. The one big difference between them is home runs. Boston hit 178 of them, 5th in the AL. St. Louis hit only 125, 14th in the NL. This is a large gap, and it will decide the Series.

High batting averages are impressive in the regular season, but they don't matter much in the playoffs. In the regular season, they are accumulated primarily against the 4th and 5th starters and the pitchers at the end of the bullpen. Hitters never see these pitchers in the playoffs, so the big innings that result from four or five or six hits rarely happen. Any pitcher who gives up even two hits in a row is likely to get yanked immediately in favor of the kid with a 97mph heater, and that's the end of the “rally.” Station-to-station hitting is not what wins a World Series. Neither are stolen bases. But homers matter.

A rational man probably does not nibble at the 13-10 line here. I think the Sox are a wee bit better than that, however, so if you are forced by your temperament or by federal regulations to bet on the Series, lay the odds.


Copyright2013MichaelKubacki 

Monday, September 30, 2013

THIS & THAT IV

In my travels through Target and elsewhere, I often see “service animals” that are not assisting blind people. There are more and more of these doggies wearing their distinctive orange banners. Sometimes they are so small they are carried around in shopping bags or ride in shopping carts and are indistinguishable (aside from the banner) from pets. There are organizations that will train dogs for various purposes and certify them, but there is apparently no standardized or required process. In other words, you can just buy a service dog banner, wrap it around Fido, and take him anywhere. And that's what people do. Many of them accompany their owners for unspecified psychological reasons.

Under the Americans With Disabilities Act, service animals cannot be denied admittance to areas of public accommodation, including airplanes, hotels and restaurants. A landlord may not refuse to rent to a person with a service animal even if the housing complex completely bans animals. Also, it is a violation of the Act to demand any sort of proof that the animal has been certified or trained.

I've never seen a man with one of these animals.

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We have now learned that Aaron Alexis, the madman who killed twelve people at the Washington Navy Yard, was being treated by the VA for PTSD, which almost certainly means he was taking an SSRI (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor) drug. This SSRI group of pharmaceuticals is now the most-common form of antidepressant drug prescribed.

James Holmes, the shooter in Aurora, Colorado, was on sertraline, a generic version of Zoloft. Eric Harris (Columbine) was taking Luvox. (Medical records for Dylan Klebold remain sealed.) Seung Hui Cho, the Virginia Tech murderer, was also taking prescription medicines for psychological problems, though the name of the drug has never been released.

In fact, over the last twenty years, there have been dozens of cases involving crazed, motiveless homicide in which the killer was taking, or had just stopped taking, antidepressants. See:


This link between murder and antidepressants has gotten little publicity, for a number of reasons. First, the information may be released weeks or months after the killings, or may not be released at all. We still do not know whether Adam Lanza was on any medication when he murdered twenty-six at Sandy Hook Elementary. Second, lunatic shootings always raise new cries for gun control measures, and this dominates political discussion and leftist media coverage in the immediate aftermath, leaving little room for other issues to break through the din.

About fifteen years ago, my doctor put me on the antidepressant Wellbutrin because it is reputed to reduce nicotine craving in those who are trying to stop smoking. It didn't seem to work that way for me, but I took it for a couple of months while I was trying to quit.

At the time, I lived in South Philly and I spoke to my sister on the phone almost every day, often about our parents and other family matters. I should mention that my relations with my sister have always been good. There may have been the odd brother-sister disagreement once or twice, but never any major fights or feuds. We like each other.

After six weeks of Wellbutrin, however, I began to detect a sinister turn in her. It was never anything I could put my finger on, but after our conversations, there was always something that stuck in my head. What did she mean by that remark, I wondered. I would brood about these calls for hours, and sometimes burst into tears. I became convinced she hated me and was mocking me. But why? Why did she hate me so? What had I done to deserve this?

Then one night, my wife found me crying and demanded to know what was wrong. Blubbering, I tried to explain how my sister had turned against me, though I was aware even as I was telling the story how ridiculous it must have sounded. She cut me off.

It's that drug,” she said. “Stop taking it---now.” Two days later, my brain was working normally again. And I had learned something about psychotropic drugs.

If you start taking a new drug and it has some physical side-effect like insomnia or constipation or an upset stomach, you know it. It's obvious what is happening to you and you either learn to live with the side-effect or you stop taking the drug. Antidepressants may take a month or more to kick in, however, and when they do, the effects (good or bad) are all in your head, in your private thought processes. Most people have no way of examining, in some objective way, what is happening in their minds. I certainly didn't. There was no mechanism by which I could analyze my thinking and conclude: “Hey, Mike---you're insane.” Yet I was.

I was lucky. I had Sandy to tell me I was out of my mind. But many people do not. They live alone, or they isolate themselves and their thoughts from the scrutiny of friends and family members around them. With millions now taking antidepressant drugs, there will be people who suffer hideous mental side effects that no one notices. Until it is too late.

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My buddy works at Neiman-Marcus in Las Vegas, in the cosmetics department, where there are forty or fifty young ladies and gay guys, and him, all selling high-end lotions and make-up and creams to filthy-rich wives of filthy-rich gamblers. Recently, his mother died and he took a few days off.

When he returned, various of his co-workers came to him and pressed sympathy cards upon him, five or six in all, each signed by six or eight or ten people. With each card came cash. The total was about $400. He called me about it. He was puzzled. He had never run into this before.

They're giving me money because my mother died?” he said to me. “I don't get it. It even pissed me off at first. Then I talked to my manager and she chilled me out, but I still don't quite get it.”

I have never run into this practice either, but since he told me about it, I have asked around. “Black people in West Philly do this,” I was told. “Italian families in the old neighborhood did the same thing,” someone else said.

Well, OK. There's a poverty angle that makes sense. It takes money to bury someone and throw a wake and miss some work, and if you're poor, it's nice that your friends and neighbors kick in a few bucks to help you out, and if you know everybody in the neighborhood you appreciate it and you do the same thing for them when the time comes.

But that's not the story in the Vegas Neiman-Marcus cosmetics department, is it? I'm not saying this group of retail salespeople is rich, but they have cars and they have apartments and they have nice phones and they hit the Vegas club scene once in a while. The sympathy cards with money in them is not about poverty. It's not like giving Luigi and Maria a few bucks in the “old neighborhood” when grampa Vincenzo dies.

It's not about poverty. It's about Vegas. Money is the language of Vegas, it's the lingua franca, it's the emotional currency. In a place where there is no “neighborhood,” where most people are driftwood, money and favors and tipping are how you communicate your bona fides, your status as a decent human being. Somebody gives you a lead on a job, well, you're going to take care of that guy. Or if somebody gets you and your girlfriend a comped meal at a fancy restaurant, a simple “thank you” isn't good enough. You arrange to get him a round of golf or a LeBron jersey, or something. It's how things are done. And if you don't do it, you're basically a jerk. In another place, you might say a novena for somebody or bring them a tray of macaroni and cheese. In Vegas, you tip the guy, one way or another. In Vegas, money is often not about money; money is also an instantly-understood and inoffensive way of expressing your emotions.

Friendships exist is Vegas as they do everywhere else. I'm not suggesting everyone is a stranger. But it's unlikely your best friend is somebody you went to elementary school with. It's unlikely you know his aunts and uncles, or the name of his first wife or whether he went to church as a kid, and if so, what church it was. This means that if your friend is experiencing one of those universal human events like a death in the family, and you want to make a gesture that says, “Hey, I'm human too and I care about you and I'm sorry about what happened,” your options are extremely limited. Some gesture from your traditions might be misunderstood. It might even offend. So you make a gesture that is pure Vegas.

You tip the guy.

Copyright2013MichaelKubacki