REMEMBER THE FLU?

 

          The CDC tracks a variety of diseases from sources around the country and reports the numbers periodically.  Flu cases, based on clinical results from both private labs and public health facilities, are reported on the Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report, which is found online at https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

 

          These are the numbers of verified flu cases in the U.S. in the first weeks of 2020 and 2021:

 

          Week 1, 2020:  12,400 cases

          Week 1, 2021:  107 cases

 

          Week 2, 2020:  10,425 cases

          Week 2, 2021:  26 cases

 

          Week 3, 2020:  12,646 cases

          Week 3, 2021:  68 cases

 

          Another item the CDC reports at the site is “Influenza-Associated Pediatric Deaths.”  Here are the numbers for the last three flu seasons as well as the current one:

 

          2017-18 flu season:   188

          2018-19 flu season:   144

          2019-20 flu season:   195

          2020-21 flu season:       1

 

          The coronavirus has apparently killed off the seasonal flu.

           Let’s party.

 

Copyright2021MichaelKubacki

NFL PLAYOFFS 2021---CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

 

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay (-3.5)

 

          I have a theory about this game.

 

          In the Tampa Bay---New Orleans game, the Saints looked like the better team for the entire first half.  Then the second half happened, and what had looked like a football contest turned into a mugging.

 

          So here’s my theory---it was Tom Brady, who has a lot of rings but always seems to want another one.  He persuaded his teammates that he can get them a ring too, and all they have to do is give him everything they have, mentally, spiritually, and violently for the next three weeks.  They know it is unlikely they will have another year with Tom Brady, and they know many of them will never have another shot at a ring.  And they are professional football players, so they really really really want a Superbowl ring.

 

          That’s what happened to the New Orleans Saints in the second half, and that may well be what will happen to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.  On October 18, the Packers went to Tampa Bay and were crushed 38-10, their only defeat of the season by ten or more points.  The Bucs remember that game, so they know it is possible to pummel the Packers.

 

          Green Bay’s AYP of 7.7 is the highest in the tournament and is a full yard better than Tampa’s, though the Bucs appear to have a slightly better defense.  Each outscored their opponents by almost 9 ppg, and had strong records in games decided by ten or more points.  They are both good teams, with good numbers, and if this game were simply a matter of AYP, I would have to take the Packers to cover the spread.

 

          But I have to pass.

 

Buffalo at K.C. (-3.5)

 

          The problem with having to go through the concussion protocol this week is that the first thing they ask you is, “Who is the Vice President?”  And it’s not a very easy question at the moment.  When Mahomes got clocked in the second half on Sunday, the VP was Mike Pence, so that would have been a good answer.  But now it’s Kamala Harris, right?  And she’s completely different.  She’s a chick, for one thing.  And she’s “Asian,” I guess, because they keep saying she’s Asian even though you would never mistake her for Bruce Lee.  But that’s identity politics.  Identity politics is hard for any of us, so imagine what it’s like for football players.

 

          And don’t forget Joe Biden.  I mean, he was the Vice President for a long time, so if you ask somebody coming out of a stupor who the VP is, well, “Joe Biden” is not the exactly CORRECT answer, but it’s not a terrible answer, especially if you are a football player and they don’t really expect you to know this stuff, and they normally don’t care if you do UNTIL YOU GET A CONCUSSION AND THEY WANT YOU TO PLAY IN THE AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME.

 

          Take Buffalo here, and not just because Mahomes is still in concussion limbo and may not play.  He probably will play.  In fact, we will all be amazed if he doesn’t play.  Buffalo, coming into this game, is better.

 

          Kansas City does have the highest AYP in the AFC, at 7.4, but Buffalo is only a couple ticks behind.  Buffalo also has a superior pass defense and a better point differential over its regular-season opponents.  Buffalo also won eight games that were decided by ten or more points and lost only one of them.

 

          The Chiefs and Bills met on October 19 and the Chiefs won that encounter 26-17, in a game where K.C. actually had more rushing yards than passing yards (extremely unusual for any NFL team, and especially for one coached by Andy Reid).  Impressive, but not nearly as impressive as the crunch the Bills laid on their final six regular season opponents, winning by an average of 20 ppg.

 

          While arguments can be made for the Chiefs, the important numbers are very close between these two, and the Bills seem to be on the rise while the Chiefs are treading water.  And then there are the questions about Mahomes’ condition.

 

          I’m taking the Bills and the points.

 

Copyright2021MichaelKubacki

INAUGURATION BOGEYMEN

 

          The Biden Inauguration is in three days.  Are we really supposed to believe we need miles of barricades and razor wire, and six thousand National Guard troops, to protect federal buildings in D.C.?  Do we really need to shut down dozens of state capitols and surround them with troops?  Are you sure there are vast armies of yahoos and white supremacists massing to take down the U.S. government?

 

          Over the years, I have found that the best way of addressing these bogeymen, when they are presented by the left-wing media, is to bring them down to ground level and look for them in the real world. The armies of evil incarnate are always “out there” somewhere, and you never get told exactly where.  You also never get any sort of estimate of how many of these devils actually exist.  Often we are presented with an exemplar or two (in the Capitol attack, we are offered the buffalo-hat guy and Baked Alaska and a couple others), and then encouraged to believe there are tens of thousands of others who are just as crazy and violent.

 

          In this case, every article about the bloodthirsty hordes links them to QAnon, implying that everyone who stormed the Capitol, and anyone who marched to the Capitol, and indeed anyone who went to Washington to protest the election in any way, believes there is a cabal of Democratic, Satan-worshipping pedophiles who rule the world.  They must be white supremacists too because, we are also told, all 75 million people who voted for Trump are white supremacists, but that charge seems to be secondary.  It’s just assumed.

 

          When confronted with the terrifying specter of a mob of QAnon white-supremacist insurrectionists who are determined to kill politicians and bring down America, what I ask myself is: do I know anybody like this?

 

          I mean, I know a lot of people.  I live in a city and I have a job where I interact with hundreds of people and I’m on the Internet a lot, so I communicate with all sorts.  I know communists.  I know liberals.  I know white supremacists.  I know anti-vaxxers and Zionists and Jew-haters and people who wonder why we all can’t just get along and people who will not wear a mask under any circumstance and people who wear a mask when they are alone in their own home and people who ONLY care about recycling and bike paths and people convinced that the election was totally kosher and people who are incensed that the election was stolen.

 

          What I don’t know is anybody who wants to fight a shooting war across America in order to bring down our constitutional republic and install Donald Trump as Il Duce.  I’m not saying they don’t exist.  In a nation of 330,000,000 people, there are undoubtedly a few people like that, and maybe the guy in the buffalo hat is one of them.  And maybe he thinks Nancy Pelosi drinks human blood under the full moon while she is sodomizing altar boys with her broomstick.

 

          If he does, it’s a distinctly minority opinion.  And there are not enough people who share his views to justify miles of concrete barriers and razor wire and thousands of troops.  In fact, there were already supposed to be violent insurrections in state capitols this past weekend, and what happened?  More journalists showed up than protesters, and the four or five protesters were carrying cardboard signs rather than AR-15s.

 

          All of which took me back to the 2008 election, when I was repeatedly told by my Democratic friends that Obama couldn’t be elected because there were too many white people who wouldn’t vote for a black man.  I was told this so many times that I started asking myself: WHO?  Who, under normal circumstances, would vote for a guy like Obama but wouldn’t do it because he is black?  Did I know any such people?  And I didn’t.  I couldn’t think of a one.

 

          Of course, there were plenty of Americans who wouldn’t vote for Obama.  There was me, for example, though it had nothing to do with his skin color.  I didn’t vote for Dukakis or Clinton or Gore or Kerry either and they were all nice white boys just like myself.  No.  I vote for political reasons, as most people do.  In order for this racism theory to manifest itself in the 2008 election, to make a difference in the election, there would have to be a bunch of people who were solid Democrats and who had voted for Dukakis and Clinton and Gore and Kerry but would shun Barack Obama because he was the wrong color.  Such people had to exist, I guess, but it had to be a distinctly minority view because not only was I unacquainted with such a person, my leftist friends couldn’t name one either.  And in fact, I knew people who voted for Obama because he was black.  They had never voted before and didn’t pay any attention to politics whatsoever, but they were prepared to run through a wall in order to vote for the first black president.

 

          It’s now my standard response to the news that there is suddenly a huge cohort of some kind of people I never heard of before and can’t quite picture.  Name some.  Name a few.  Name five, and I’ll give you Baked Alaska and the buffalo-hat guy.

 

Copyright2021MichaelKubacki

2021 NFL PLAYOFFS---Division Week

 

Except for Cleveland, these are the best eight teams.

 

LA Rams at Green Bay (-7)

 

          The Rams played a wonderful game, on the road, and beat Seattle last week.  Their defense dominated.  And they have the best pass defense in the tournament.

 

          However, Green Bay is not Seattle.  GB’s AYP is a (stunning) 7.7, the highest of any team in the NFL, while the Rams’ AYP is a middling 5.9.  The Packers’ record in blowouts (games decided by ten or more points) was 8-1; the Rams’ record in those games was 6-2.

 

          This game is a mismatch.  Green Bay covers.

 

Baltimore at Buffalo (-2.5)

 

          Because Baltimore’s offense is different from that of most teams, the Lamar Jackson-led Ravens will probably never look that powerful when viewed through the prism of AYP.  Last week, with their AYP of 5.8, Baltimore faced a Tennessee team with an AYP of 7.2.  I picked the Titans.  I lost my bet.

 

          Here, I have to travel much the same road.  Buffalo’s AYP is 7.1, far superior to Baltimore’s.  The Bills do have a much better pass defense than Tennessee did, and that may make the difference.  But the truth is: I am probably not ever going to be a fan of the Ravens offense.

 

          The other thing that stands out about the Bills is the way they have come into the playoffs.  In their last six regular season games, they scored an average of 38 points and beat all six opponents by an average of 20 per game.  It is true that Indy provided a challenge last week, but I expect a return to form for Buffalo.

 

          I enthusiastically lay the points with the Bills.

 

Cleveland at KC (-10.5)

 

          I know everything has changed now that KC won a Superbowl and Andy Reid has been vindicated at last, and he really was brilliant for all those years but sometimes you’re just unlucky, etc. etc. etc.

 

          Maybe.

 

          Here is some of what I wrote in 2019:

 

                    Since the 1970 merger of the NFL and the AFL…KC has made it to ONE AFC Championship game, which it lost.  I know the players were different, I know the coaches were different, I know everything was different, but still….

 

                                                *

 

          And then there’s Andy Reid, the Jacques Who of football coaches, who always wins ten or twelve games a season but can never win the big one.  How many times have we seen that goofy, befuddled, fourth-quarter look on his puss as the clock ticks down in yet another game he should have won but is losing by 14?

 

                                                *

 

          And then there’s Andy, of course.  Despite all his disciples in the NFL coaching fraternity (who are rather tediously listed during every national broadcast of a KC game), the tale of Andy Reid has one recurring theme---losing the big one.  And while his QB, Mahomes, is the most entertaining player in the league, and while the Kansas City Chiefs have the best yards/pass numbers this year and should be the favorite to win it all, I just don’t believe it. Andy always finds a way to lose a critical game he should win by two touchdowns, and I fear this matchup might be the one.

 

            Even beyond Andy himself, the franchise is cursed.  The last time the Chiefs won a home playoff game was a wee bit over twenty-five years ago, on January 8, 1994, when they squeaked by the Steelers 27-24 in OT.  Since then, KC has gone 1-10, its only triumph a wildcard victory in Houston on January 9, 2016.  Four of the ten losses have come in this exact situation, with the Chiefs earning a bye and then losing their first home game in Division Week.

 

            I know Cleveland appears unlikely to win this game.  K.C.’s 7.4 AYP is superior to Cleveland’s 6.6, and the Chiefs have a better pass defense as well.  Cleveland was outscored by their opponents while the Chiefs averaged seven points more than their opposition.  And yes, Baker Mayfield is not Patrick Mahomes, and he never will be.

 

          Still, this is EXACTLY the sort of game Andy Reid has become famous for losing.  Until the Superbowl win, of course.  Now all is forgotten.

 

          Without the Andy Reid factor, I probably pass this game since 10.5 is too big a number to lay with any confidence in a Divisional Weekend game.  But Andy Reid is always a factor whenever he is coaching, so I’m betting Cleveland.

 

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3)

 

          They’re calling it the AARP Bowl, starring the two oldest QBs in the free world.

 

          I don’t see much to separate them.  The AYP is 6.8 to 6.7 in favor of New Orleans, which also has a slightly better pass defense.  The Saints outscored their opponents by 9.1 points; the Bucs by 8.6.  Tampa was 7-2 in blowouts and New Orleans was 7-1.

 

          The Saints, as the home team and the higher seed, have a slight edge, but I think the 3-point line is just about right.

 

          I pass.

 

Copyright2021MichaelKubacki

THIS & THAT XIV

 

          I recently read a discussion of the problem with 12 AM and 12 PM.  I know some people have it burned in their minds that 12 AM is midnight and 12 PM is noon, but it has always confused me.  On a digital clock, you will find that at the moment the time changes from 11:59 PM to midnight, the little dot indicating “PM” disappears, indicating that midnight is the beginning of AM.

          The problem (i.e., my problem), is that the decision to do this is purely a convention.  It is not based in logic or reality, so the only way to remember it is to remember it.  You cannot reason your way to it.

          AM means “ante meridiem,” which means “before the meridiem,” which means “before noon.”  PM means “post meridiem,” which means “after noon.”  However, noon itself is neither ante nor post.  It IS the damn meridiem, so it can’t be before or after.  The same is true of midnight (in a slightly different way).  Midnight is exactly twelve hours before the meridiem and exactly twelve hours after the meridiem, so it really is neither AM nor PM.

          Let us abandon this farcical convention which adds nothing to our understanding of time and only serves to confuse the unwary, like me.  Let noon be “noon,” and nothing else.  And let midnight be midnight.  Every other time of day can still be AM or PM, because that will make sense.

 

*

 

          Every married couple on a TV commercial now must be interracial.

 

*

 

          Suggested new name for the Cleveland baseball franchise: The Redskins.

 

*

 

          I have very fond memories of my mother’s fried bologna sandwiches.  They were my favorite food for several years when I would race home from my elementary school for lunch and a Popeye cartoon.  And then, well, I grew up.

          In the grocery business, bologna is a sleepy little product.  It sells steadily but it’s not cool or hip and I always assumed it never would be.  But in searching for stocking stuffers at the dollar store recently, I found Garlic Bologna in the refrigerator!  Yes!!!  This is what bologna has needed for decades---flavors.  Green tea bologna, pumpkin spice bologna, red bean bologna, jalapeno bologna….

 

          *

 

          Back in August, the CDC changed its guidelines to provide that COVID testing would no longer be routinely done on people without COVID symptoms.  The new directive was ignored (and even denounced!) by most state and local public health officials.  Testing!  We need MORE testing!!  Testing, goddammit!!!  Nobody ever explained, at least to my satisfaction, what the purpose of all this testing is, but the politicians and the bureaucrats love testing, and can’t get enough of it, no matter how inaccurate the tests are or how many false positives result.

          This is pure speculation on my part, but I suspect states run by Democrats will begin to embrace the new guidelines around the end of March, as the seasonal resurgence of respiratory illnesses (a few of which are COVID), comes to its natural end.  By testing only those with symptoms, we will stop finding so many “cases,” and this drop, along with Biden’s aggressive, really-smart, non-Trumpian vaccine initiative, and a federal mask mandate, will allow officialdom to tell us how Biden conquered the virus.

          We will be warned we have to behave or there will be more restrictions, and of course, there will be more lockdowns and mask mandates when respiratory-infection season returns in October, but this summer might be relatively carefree so we can all celebrate the genius of Joe and the evil of Trump.

 

*

 

          There were two mysterious casualties during the violent breach of the Capitol Building last Wednesday.  It has been five days and we have been told virtually nothing about the deaths of Brian Sicknick and Ashli Babbitt.  In an event of such enormous public importance, there is no excuse for the official silence surrounding these horrific deaths.

          Brian Sicknick was an officer with the U.S. Capitol Police.  He died Thursday night from, according to Acting A.G. Jeffrey Rosen, “injuries he suffered defending the U.S. Capitol, against the violent mob who stormed it on January 6.”  And that’s it.  This statement is the only official word on what happened to Officer Sicknick.  We don’t know how he died, who may be responsible, or even where it happened.

          The refusal to publish any information about this officer’s death does him a tremendous disservice.  I would like to think this man was a hero who died defending his nation against an insurrectionist mob, but the news blackout suggests there may have been something about his actions the government doesn’t wish to disclose, or that the story of his demise would be somehow embarrassing to his family or to the Capitol Police.  In the current climate, the only thing the Attorney General’s silence can do is foster conspiracy theories that none of us needs.

          Ashli Babbitt was a 14-year Air Force veteran who took a single bullet to the neck in the Capitol as she was trying to break through a door into the Speaker’s lobby.  She was a trespasser, and a violent one, but apparently unarmed.  In the video that was released of her death, there appear to be armed officers both in front of her and behind her at the time the shot was fired.  It is a chaotic scene with other demonstrators in the immediate area.

          Who shot her?  And why?  We have been told nothing about that.  I am absolutely in favor of giving police the benefit of any doubt in a dangerous situation, but one thing we have learned in the past year is that police no longer get carte blanche in a situation where lethal force is used to stop an unarmed offender.

          Also, needless to say, this is exactly the kind of situation where martyrs emerge in political movements.  Ashli Babbitt---say her name.

          Acting Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen could not have chosen a worse public relations strategy to deal with these killings.

 

Copyright2021MichaelKubacki       

What We Can Learn From Political Violence

 

         We have learned two things from the political violence in America over the past year.

          First, when you remove any and all mechanisms for a redress of grievances through the democratic process, there will be people who resort to violence because they feel they have no other choice.

          It is not a surprise that police are regularly attacked, and even killed.  The BLM-fueled riots this year have made this a front-page story, but it has been happening for years and it is now simply a regrettable part of our culture. The mythical “war of white cops on black men” is a vicious slur, of course, and it has been repeatedly debunked, but the rule for many decades has been that when cops do something wrong or criminal (to anybody), they are protected by their unions and city governments and they are almost never charged and almost never lose their jobs.  It is something of a mystery to me why good cops (i.e., the vast majority), would allow the criminals and psychos to remain in the force, but they do.  Apparently, there’s a taboo about ratting out your fellow cop no matter what he does, but the result is that a certain amount of random, deadly violence is visited upon cops, good and bad, simply because there is often no place a wronged citizen can obtain justice.

          The rioting in the Capitol building in D.C. comes from much the same source.  There are perhaps a hundred million Americans who believe the 2020 election was stolen, that they will never see a fair election again, and that America, as founded in 1776 on principles of individual liberty, is now kaput.  In response to their outrage and disappointment, every avenue of investigation in the courts and the US Congress has been shut down, almost always on procedural grounds without ever allowing the merits of the claims to be examined.  In addition, they are told by newspapers, TV stations and social media that they (and the current president), are lunatics, cultists and conspiracy freaks for even raising the issue.

          Most of us who question what happened in the election are sad, depressed, and even angry, but we are not people who take up arms and start blowing things up.  BUT SOME PEOPLE WILL.  If they are denied all legitimate means by which their complaints can be heard and adjudicated, there are a few people who will break into the Capitol Building and fart on Nancy Pelosi’s sacred chair.  We have seen this process in America many times.  We have seen it around the world.  When you silence dissent rather than addressing it, there will be a few people who will explode.

          The abortion issue is a perfect example.  Prior to Roe v. Wade, there were political debates in every state, with some places banning it, others restricting it in certain ways, and still others leaving it completely legal and unregulated.  If you felt strongly about the issue on one side or the other, you could devote your efforts to persuading your fellow citizens.

          But when Roe v. Wade came down, all that stopped.  Suddenly, there was no legitimate path to changing the law in the political or legislative arenas.  And that’s when abortionists started getting shot and ministers protesting at abortion clinics started getting beaten up.

          And now let me answer your objection before you make it.  No, I am not saying that shooting cops is justified, or that storming the Capitol in Washington should not be punished, or that abortion doctors got what was coming to them, The point I’m making is about the democratic process, one purpose of which (and perhaps the primary purpose), is to prevent violence by providing people with a non-violent method of obtaining justice.  Once that is taken away, some people will pick up a gun.  It is inevitable, and completely predictable.

          The second lesson we have learned about political violence from the events of 2020 has been noted by others.  Tucker Carlson, on his TV show a few nights ago, discussed it at length.  If we do not punish and stifle political violence, we will get more of it.

          Beginning around Memorial Day and lasting for months, we all saw police officers being attacked and shot at, looting, rioting, the destruction of public and private buildings, the bombing of vehicles, the blocking of roads, and other forms of destruction and violence.  In some places (e.g., Portland), it continues to this day.  Very few people were arrested for these crimes, and most of them were immediately released.  Left-wing politicians expressed sympathy for the criminals and their rage, or at a minimum, failed to demand that the violence be stopped.

          Where there was official reaction, it often targeted the police for their efforts to stop the violence.  In Philadelphia, for example, police were fired for using teargas in an attempt to stop demonstrators from blocking an interstate highway during rush hour.

          There has always been political violence in America.  From the Civil War to the Haymaker riots to anarchist bombings in the 1920s to the Weathermen to the Unibomber to a hundred other acts of politically-based mayhem and murder, it has always been a part of our national story.  What was different this summer was that elected officials and some law enforcement agencies did nothing, or almost nothing, to stop it.  I don’t remember that ever happening before.

          When violence of this sort is not suppressed, and people are not arrested and punished for their attacks upon their fellow citizens, the nation and its instrumentalities, there will be more such attacks.  That is the explanation for the breach of the Capitol.  That which is rewarded gets repeated, perhaps in ways you may not fancy.

 

Copyright2021MichaelKubacki       

2021 NFL PLAYOFFS---Wildcard Week

 Methodological Precis.

          Most of you have been here before so you know how I do this.  I look at all the playoff teams in terms of their offensive yards/pass, with a negative adjustment for the number of interceptions they have thrown.  I also calculate the same yards/pass number for the team’s defense, though I don’t care nearly as much about that number.  Point differential over the season is also something I glance at.  The basic theory is that offense, especially the ability to make a big play, is what wins Superbowls.  We all remember a few Superbowl winners who had the league’s best defense (e.g., the 2000 Baltimore Ravens), but they are very rare.

 

          As a general rule, an adjusted yards/pass (“AYP”) over 7 makes you a very serious Superbowl contender, while an AYP under 6 will guarantee you an early tee time.

 

          Once I have all these numbers, I categorize the teams as Contenders, Pretenders, or Could-Get-Lucky.  This year, since there are more teams, I’ve added another category: Need-A-Miracle-But-They-Don’t-Suck.

 

          Finally, I look at all the games and the lines and tell you which side to bet.

 

Who’s Who

 

The Pretenders---Chicago, Cleveland and Washington don’t belong with the rest of these guys.  None will win a game.

 

Need-A-Miracle-But-They-Don’t-Suck---Seattle, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are not good enough to win the tournament, but all of them are favored in the first round, and they all might win.  The only one I would consider betting on is Pittsburgh, and that is because they are playing the Brownies.  Then there’s Indianapolis, who is not favored in the first round, and they probably won’t get past the first round, but they have some nice wins.

 

Could Get Lucky---These are all teams that can potentially beat anybody, and have something wonderful about them, but are not as well-rounded and dangerous as the top-flight squads.  These are the Rams, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee.

 

Contenders---The top four seeds are Green Bay, New Orleans, Kansas City and Buffalo.  We can quibble about this or that aspect of this or that team, but I would be shocked if none of them made it to the Superbowl, and there’s about a 90% chance one of them will win it.

 

The Games  

 

Indy at Buffalo (-6)

          In the AFC, Indianapolis has the 4^th best AYP and the 5^th best defensive AYP, and they are 3 – 3 against playoff teams.  Souls they beat Buffalo, they will get KC in KC in Round 2.  After that, it gets easy.

          Buffalo has only the third best AYP and the third best defensive AYP in the AFC.  However, they have won their last six games by at least ten points, and their last three games by 29, 29, and 30.  Their only home loss was to KC in October.

          I lay the six points here.  Indy can score, and may do so, but Buffalo should score a lot and have a relatively easy time.

 

Rams at Seattle (-3.5)

          These guys, from the NFC West, traded home victories with each other, and were privileged to play all the stalwarts of the NFC Least.  Seattle went 3 – 1 against the Least, without beating any of them by more than a TD.  The Rams took four victories and outscored the Least by a total of 50 points.  That’s the way you are supposed to do it.

          Seattle has the fourth best AYP and the Rams the fifth, but the Rams have something Seattle doesn’t---a real defense that gave up the fewest points (296) in the league this year.

          I don’t want to oversell the Rams.  They did lose to the Jets three weeks ago.  But this shapes up as a potentially ugly defensive battle and if that is the case, the Rams will probably cover and might win outright.

          Take the points.

 

Tampa Bay (-8) at Washington 

          Of course, TB will win this game, and everybody knows it.  (The line opened at 3 or 4 and now it’s 8.)  Washington has the worst AYP of any team in either conference and Tampa’s QB is named Tom Brady.

          The one real thing about the Redskins, however, is their defense.  It’s not that far behind the top three---the Rams, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore.  The Detroit Lions, on November 15, was the last team to score more than 17 points against them.

          So I’m passing this contest.  There is very little chance the Skins beat Brady, but there is a good chance they keep it close.

 

Baltimore (-3.5) at Tennessee

          Baltimore has a better pass defense than Tennessee.  The Ravens had a rough patch in the middle of the season where they lost three in a row, including a home game with Tennessee, but ended the season by beating up on five relatively weak teams.  (Remember---this is a good thing.  The best teams tend to pound the weaklings.)

          However, Tennessee has a 7.2 AYP, as opposed to the Ravens’ 5.8.  If AYP means anything in the playoffs, a team with a significantly better AYP should win the game.  Plus they are at home.  Plus they are getting points.

          I bet the Titans here.

 

Chicago at New Orleans (-10.5)

          This is another one of those games where the wise guys are betting it like the game has been played already.  The Saints opened as 9-point favorites and they’re now up to 10.5.

          There are obvious reasons for this.  New Orleans’ AYP is 6.8, behind only Green Bay in the Conference, while Chicago’s is 5.1.  The Saints outscored their opponents by 9 points per game; the Bears didn’t outscore their opponents at all.  At one point, Chicago lost six in a row, and the only good team they beat all year was Tampa, by a single point on October 6.

          So New Orleans wins this game.  But a double-digit line in a playoff game?  This is a situation where the Saints could be up 28-3 at halftime but then Chicago will be allowed to come back a bit and cover the spread while never being in any danger of winning.

          I pass.

 

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-4.5)

          Every year, one team limps into the playoffs having scored fewer points than its opponents.  This year, that team is the Cleveland Browns.  They are now playing in Pittsburgh in the opening round of the playoffs.  The last time they played in Pittsburgh was on October 18, when they lost to the Steelers 38-7.  It may have been their worst loss of the season, unless that distinction belongs to the opening-day 38-6 trouncing by the Ravens or their loss to the Jets on December 27.

          The Steelers went 12-4, defeated its foes by an average of 6.5 points per game, and lost only one game at home this year.  After starting the season 11-0, they lost four of their last five, but perhaps some of that can be attributed to coasting.  They also may have the best pass defense in the AFC.

          Neither of these teams are likely to get past the second round, but somebody has to win on Sunday.  Cleveland’s AYP is a respectable 6.6, while Pittsburgh’s is 5.5, the worst in the AFC.

          An underdog with a higher AYP is often a compelling choice in these games.  This one is less compelling, but though I have reservations, I will take Cleveland plus the points.

 

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