Friday, January 31, 2020

NFL PLAYOFFS---2020 Superbowl



Kansas City (-1.5) vs. San Francisco

          On January 19, the bubble burst for Tennessee, a good team that will probably contend for a few years to come, but which finally ran into an offense it could not control.  I got that one wrong.

          In the NFC, the 49ers rolled easily over the Packers, scoring 37 points against them for the second time in two months.  I cashed on that one, making my record for these playoffs 5-3.

          During the regular season, KC posted 7.4 Adjusted Yards/Pass, the best in football this year.  Since the 49er’s AYP was merely a respectable 6.6, the system I am using to make these selections tells me to bet the Chiefs.  A difference of 7.4 to 6.6 is significant, and the Chiefs should cover.  That is the call I am making.

          There are always other factors, of course.  For the Conference Championship games, in an effort to determine which teams were “peaking for the playoffs,” I calculated AYP numbers limited to the last six games of the season.  San Fran, in those last six, had achieved an 8.5 AYP while KC’s AYP was a less-impressive 6.2.  Perhaps the 49ers were actually peaking!  Maybe the Chiefs were fading!  On the other hand, Kansas City had won all six of those games by an average margin of 16 points so it was hard to make the case they were falling apart.

          And if defense matters?  Well, SF has an edge.  Their defensive AYP is a stunning 4.1, superior to the Chief’s 4.7.  Beyond the numbers, we all saw what the SF defenders did to the Vikings and the Packers.

          On the other hand, which QB would you rather have?  Jimmy Garoppolo is certainly good enough to win a championship and I expect he will someday.  Mahomes, however, is capable of winning any game all by himself.  If this Superbowl is won by the team with the better quarterback, as most of them are, this is an easy call.  KC, and Mahomes, are better.

          And then finally, there’s the donut boy, with whom most Philadelphians have a complex love/hate relationship.  When he left here after fourteen seasons as head coach of the Eagles, virtually everyone was glad to see him go, despite his winning record in the regular season, despite his (one!) Superbowl appearance, and despite his NFC East titles.  He was extremely fan-unfriendly, he routinely lied to the sporting press, and he looked very much like the kind of coach who would usually go 11-5 in the regular season but would NEVER win a championship.

          He is still that guy.  Philadelphia’s dislike of him has faded now that the Eagles have finally won a Superbowl because the frustration of those lost fourteen seasons has been buried under the joy of victory, and there is probably a majority of Philly fans pulling for Andy to win this thing.

          I am not one of them.  To me, he is still the guy who somehow always finds a way to lose the big one.

          KC is the better team.  Lay the 1.5 points.  If offenses win Superbowls, and great QBs win Superbowls, and Adjusted Yards/Pass is a legitimate predictor of who gets the cheese, then go with KC.  Personally, I will have to limit my betting to a traditional wager against my brother-in-law of one dollar on the coin flip.  In that one, I like heads.

Copyright2020MichaelKubacki       

Thursday, January 30, 2020

IMPEACHMENT---And Crime


          Like most of the American people, I have not been captivated by the grotesque spectacle of this impeachment trial, and I have managed to find things to amuse myself other than observing the attempt by one of our political parties to destroy treasured institutions of our Republic because they don’t like the guy who won the 2016 elections.  Nevertheless, there is one issue that has captured my imagination because just about everybody is getting it wrong.

          This is the question of whether an impeachable offense must be an actual crime.

          The issue is important because the House articles of impeachment do not allege an actual crime by Trump.  Neither “Abuse of Power” nor “Obstruction of Congress” appear anywhere in the statute books.  They are more akin to the amorphous “collusion” Trump was accused of and which Mr. Mueller spent two years investigating.  There too, the people who were pursuing Trump could never cite a section of the U.S. Code for you.  What Trump did, according to them, was just “wrong” somehow.

          Impeachment is a little different, however.  There are actual consequences (removal from office), should the impeachers succeed.  The entire procedure is based in the Constitution, unlike whatever it was Mueller was doing.  Also, we have a history to refer to---three previous impeachments (or attempts).

          The significance of this history is that on all three previous occasions, the president was accused of a crime.  In Andrew Johnson’s case, Congress had passed a law barring Johnson from dismissing cabinet members he didn’t like, and he dismissed one anyway.  The law was almost certainly unconstitutional, but it was a law and Johnson broke it.

          In Nixon’s case, his resignation ended all impeachment proceedings, but he was credibly accused of having a role in the Watergate burglary.  This would have been a crime even if his role were merely as an accessory after the fact for covering up the break-in.

          Finally, Bill Clinton committed (at least), perjury for lying under oath in a deposition.  Arkansas suspended him from practicing law for five years and assessed a $25,000 fine.  He was also held in contempt by the judge in the Paula Jones case and fined $90,686.

          But since no crime has been alleged against Trump in the impeachment articles, the current proceeding is a case of first impression.  The question is whether a president can be impeached for conduct that is not criminal.  And the answer is nowhere near as difficult or complex as the various partisans are making it out to be.

          The first step is to examine the controlling law, which appears in Article II, Section 4 of the Constitution:

“The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”

In the interpretation of a statute or a contract or other document, judges use certain established “rules of construction” to determine the meaning of the language used.  The first, most basic, of these rules is that the plain language that is used will control the judge’s decision unless there is some ambiguity in that language.  Here, what is the ambiguity?  Treason and Bribery are the specific examples used, so the normal interpretation of “other high Crimes and Misdemeanors” would be that they would have to be similar to Treason and Bribery.  The word “other” in this context must mean that Treason and Bribery are themselves high Crimes and Misdemeanors, and that “other” impeachable offenses must share some qualities with the specific examples.  What are those qualities?

          Since Treason and Bribery are both crimes, the minimum requirement must be that “other” offenses should be, at least, crimes.  And that is supposed to end the inquiry.  If the language of a statute is unambiguous, no outside commentary is admissible.

          But despite the absence of ambiguity in the language, those who claim there is no requirement of a criminal act nevertheless insist on bringing in outside commentary to interpret Art. II, Sec. 4.  They should not be permitted to do this, but let’s assume they can, and consider their argument.  It’s easy to do because there is only one piece of commentary they cite, and I have seen and heard it cited dozens of times in the past few days.  It is two sentences from Federalist Paper No. LXV, written in 1787 or 1788 by Alexander Hamilton:

“The subject of its [impeachment] jurisdiction are those offenses which proceed from the misconduct of public men, or, in other words, from the abuse or violation of some public trust.  They are of a nature which may with peculiar propriety be denominated POLITICAL, as they relate chiefly to injuries done immediately to the society itself.”

The capitalized word appears that way in the original, and it is apparently the only thing the anti-Trump forces like about Federalist Paper No. LXV, because it is the entire basis of their argument.  “See,” they claim, “Hamilton says impeachment is all POLITICAL, which means the offense doesn’t have to be a crime, it just has to be some political behavior that we deem improper.”

          The problem with that argument, however, is that these two sentences do not really contradict the words of Art. II, Sec. 4, but can be easily reconciled with the Constitutional language.  Why can’t they mean that the impeachable behavior must be not merely a crime but a POLITICAL crime, (like Treason and Bribery, for example)?  Hamilton’s use of the word “offenses” also supports this interpretation.  “Offenses,” when lawyers are talking about legal law things, means activities that violate the law.  It does not simply mean something that “offends” you, or annoys Nancy Pelosi.

          (We have been here before, or at least part of the way here.  During the Clinton impeachment, the issue was not whether he had committed a crime, because he surely had, but whether his crime was POLITICAL.  When you lie under oath about screwing the chick in the mail room, is that a “high” crime?  Is it POLITICAL?  The argument for Bill Clinton was that, though he had committed a crime, it was not a crime that had anything to do with the nation or his high office or the body politic.  That was the argument made by Alan Dershowitz on Clinton’s behalf.  It was a good argument and it must have held some sway because Clinton was not convicted.)

          But let’s not get distracted.  Let’s get back to the argument from the two sentences of Federalist No. LXV, the argument that the offense for which a president is impeached need not be a crime.  It's not very convincing to begin with, but it falls apart completely another six paragraphs into the essay.

          The criminal/non-criminal issue is settled, definitively, in the eighth paragraph of Federalist No. LXV.   Here, Hamilton describes the consequences of conviction and its aftermath:

“[T]he punishment which may be the consequence of conviction upon impeachment is not to terminate the chastisement of the offender.  After having been sentenced to a perpetual ostracism from the esteem and confidence and honors and emoluments of his country, he will still be liable to prosecution and punishment in the ordinary course of law.”  (Emphasis added.)

        And that settles it.  According to Hamilton, criminal prosecution is something that every impeached person may face, and that could not be true unless every impeachable offense was itself a criminal act.  Note in particular that Hamilton does not say the impeached officer “may” be liable to prosecution.  He says the person “will” be liable to prosecution.

          The analysis above is not difficult or complex.  Any dispassionate lawyer of moderate skill who spent ten minutes reviewing the relevant texts would come to the same conclusion I have.  Yet, as the leftist news media has repeatedly trumpeted, most “constitutional experts” have concluded that impeachment of a president does not require an allegation that the president has committed a crime.  All this means, apparently, is that the majority of what the media call “constitutional experts” are simply partisans and hacks who hate Trump.

Copyright2020MichaelKubacki      

Monday, January 20, 2020

GUNS IN RICHMOND


          Drones were banned, streets and roads were closed, thousands of yards of chain link fencing was erected, dozens of metal detectors were brought in.  The State Police, the Capitol Police, the Richmond Police and the FBI combined to create what was described as a “huge police presence.”  A State of Emergency was declared by Governor Blackface.  Even guns were banned in the Capitol area (at a gun rally!).  The authorities found a few “neo-nazis” a couple hundred miles away, so they were arrested, of course.

          And then, on January 20, a day Virginia traditionally designates as a day for lobbying and protest at the state capitol, 20,000 or so supporters of the 2nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution showed up because they did not want the legislature to pass some gun laws that would instantly turn many of them into felons.  They carried signs.  They expressed their opinions.

          And nothing happened.

          Nothing bad, anyway.  Nobody got shot.  Nobody got arrested.  There were not even any fistfights apparently, because if there had been, one of the hundreds of journalists who had very little to do would have filmed it for us.

          The idea that legal gun-owners would create a sea of mayhem in the streets of Richmond was absurd.  It was always absurd, no matter how often the Governor and his various subordinates howled about how dangerous the rally was or how worried he was that WWIII would erupt.  They wasted millions of dollars on this “security” show, though there will be no rush, of course, to tell the people of Virginia exactly how much was spent on helicopters and armored vehicles and rooftop snipers and all the other trappings of the police state that leftists like Northam invariably set up whenever they come to power.

          Whenever I go to a gun show, it always occurs to me at some point that I am probably in the safest place in Pennsylvania at that moment.  You are surrounded by weaponry and millions of rounds of ammunition, and people who know how to use it, but they are decent folks.  They are law-abiding citizens.  Many of them, like many of the people in Richmond today, are concealed-carry permit holders, and the crime rate of concealed-carry holders is quite a bit lower than the crime rate of policemen.  The crime rate of carry-permit holders is comparable to the crime rate of nuns, and the crime rate of nuns is quite low.  It’s one of the things they’re known for.

          The danger we face as Americans is not from gun-owners or carry-permit holders or supporters of the U.S. Constitution.  The danger we face comes from those, like Governor Northam, whose ideology makes them so blind to reality and so out of touch with the values held by at least half their fellow citizens, that they are simply unfit to hold important public office.

          [Update.  It is now reported that one person was arrested at the rally for wearing a mask, which suggests she was antifa, or a counter-protester of some kind.]

Copyright2020MichaelKubacki

Saturday, January 18, 2020

ELIZABETH WARREN---Part 2



Pride should be reserved for something you achieve or obtain on your own, not something that happens by accident of birth.  You don’t say, “I’m proud to be 5’10” or “I’m proud to have a predisposition for colon cancer." ---George Carlin

          My prior article dealt with Warren’s September 2018 attempt to put her embarrassing racial history story behind her.  With the help of writer Annie Linskey, the Boston Globe, and many of her colleagues at Harvard Law School, Ms. Warren tried to persuade us that, though she claimed to be a Cherokee at the exact moment it was becoming really, really cool in academia to be a Cherokee, her claims had no bearing on her being hired as a professor at Harvard Law.

          Based on my research on who gets hired at Harvard Law, the conclusion was inescapable: there was no way Warren was hired on her merits.  The ONLY reason she got the job was that she misrepresented her racial identity.  Except for her supposed Indian ancestry, she would never have been hired, would never have become a US Senator, and would not now be taken seriously as a presidential candidate.

          I dislike this woman, I have many good reasons to dislike her, and I’m going to tell you what they are.  The first reason, which grows out of her 1992 hiring at Harvard Law, is that she is a fraud.  Elizabeth Warren could have had a nice career as a lawyer or as a law professor at a school nobody ever heard of.  Everyone says she’s a good teacher, and there’s nothing wrong with being a good teacher.

          But that wasn’t enough.  The ruthlessly ambitious Warren decided, at the threshold of the diversity era, that she could use her “family stories” and “high cheekbones” to catapult herself into the limelight, and so she did.

          There was a tiny window in our history when it was possible to do this, and she took full advantage of it.  “Diversity” in academia became an essential virtue in the early 1990s, at a time when the only DNA testing available cost a lot of money and was used only for criminal prosecutions and paternity disputes.  DNA testing did not become available to consumers for another twenty years.  In was within this period that Elizabeth Warren proclaimed she was a Cherokee, and there was no practical way to challenge her assertions.
  
          In addition to the Boston Globe article, the other initiative in her attempt to put the racial identity issue behind her was the release of a DNA test done for her by Carlos Bustamante, a professor at Stanford.  He concluded that a Native American ancestor appears in Warren’s family tree “in the range of 6-10 generations ago.”  In other words, Warren could possibly be 1/64th Indian, meaning that a great-great-great-great grandparent (born sometime in the early 1800s), might have been Indian.  Or it might have been ten generations, making her 1/1024th part Indian, with an Indian great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great grandparent, probably born in the mid-1700s.*

          This is one reason why tribal councils don’t care about DNA (and why the Cherokees were so annoyed with Warren).  If you want to be a recognized member of a tribe, they insist on proof of descent from a known tribal ancestor, and you must demonstrate it with birth and marriage records.  The other reason, of course, is that Native Americans see things the way George Carlin did---they don’t like the emphasis on “blood.”  Blood is an accident.  Tribal or clan connections are social links or political links or emotional bonds.  They are choices.  They are based in lived human experience and not just in something you find in a test tube.

          When she released Bustamante’s results, Warren touted them on social media.  Her headline: “Warren reveals test confirming ancestry.”  In a recent rally, Trump had said, “I will give you $1 million, to your favorite charity, paid for by Trump, if you take the test and it shows you’re an Indian.”  Warren now demanded payment.  In Elizabeth Warren’s mind, the test proved she was an Indian.

          Let’s do some math.

          In the first generation back, there are two people.  These are your parents.  In the second generation, there are four more people, then eight, then sixteen and so on.  Add them up.  In the 10th generation back there are 1024 people, for a total of 2046 direct ancestors.  Of these 2046 direct ancestors of Elizabeth Warren in ten generations, ONE of them (somebody in the mid-1700’s), was a real, honest-to-God, 100% American Indian.  The rest of them, the other 2045, were basically as pasty-white as she is, but there was that one, about 270 years ago.  And that makes her a Cherokee.

          Haven’t we been here?  Haven’t we done that?  Is she really insisting on taking us back to the “one-drop rule?”

          Following the OK from the Supreme Court in Plessy v. Ferguson (1886), numerous states passed what were called Jim Crow laws that were applicable only to white people or only to black people.  Their purpose was to prevent Negroes from voting, owning guns, living in certain areas, holding certain types of jobs, etc.

          One problem with laws that affect only certain types of people, however, is that you first need to pass a “racial integrity” law to determine which people are subject to the law and which people are not.  Who is really white and who is really black?  While there were jurisdictions that distinguished among quadroons (one-fourth Negro), octoroons (one-eighth Negro), and other “–roons” for legal purposes, most settled on the one-drop rule, which held that if you were of mixed heritage, you were assigned to the group with the lower social status.  There’s even a word for this rule in genealogical circles---it’s called hypodescent.  Thus, if you had “one drop” of Negro blood, you and all your descendants would forever be Negroes.  This was the law in Virginia, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Louisiana.**

          Of course, in the current academic world, or at least the one Warren inhabited in the early 1990s, being Cherokee gave her an enhanced social status, since universities were desperately seeking people of exotic ethnicity to cement their diversity credentials and discourage students from condemning faculty members as irredeemably racist.  That was the situation at Harvard (demonstrations, Jesse Jackson, etc.), and that’s why she was hired as a law professor.

          Was this fraud?  Well, perhaps.  What she did, exaggerating any evidence of Cherokee heritage in order to advance herself professionally, was certainly nothing to be proud of.  On the other hand, DNA testing was in its infancy and there was no “23 And Me” test on the shelf at every Walmart, so there was no obvious or easy way to test her suspicions.  Viewed in the kindest possible light, Warren may have believed she had some vestige of Cherokee heritage, and then pressed her claim when it became apparent that persuading people she was Native American might be the difference between life as a lecturer at Eastern South Oklahoma State and life as a Professor at Harvard Law School.  If you wish to argue she was merely behaving cynically and opportunistically, I still won’t like her, but I will listen to that argument.

          But this is now a different matter, is it not?  Now that we know her heritage is based on a single ancestor from the 1700s or early 1800s, the insistence that her one drop is “confirmation” of Indian identity puts her in the same intellectual camp as John C. Calhoun, George Wallace and David Duke.  Her ideas of racial identity are identical to theirs.  Elizabeth Warren is a racist.  She believes, and she demands that we believe, that a drop of blood from 200 years ago is a key element in her identity.

          In the quotation at the top of this article, George Carlin was mocking people who are “proud to be Irish” or “proud to be black” or “proud to be Cherokee.”  What is there to be proud of, after all, about accidents of birth and ancestry for which we have no responsibility?

          At one level, the practice is innocuous and silly and harmless.  Why not have a shot of Jameson on St. Patty’s day?  Or dress up in traditional Polish clothes and have a parade on the Parkway to celebrate Thaddeus Kosciuszko, whose name most people can neither spell nor pronounce?  Why not?  What else were you going to do on Sunday afternoon?

          But the shot of Jameson is not really the problem.  The problem is blood politics.  The problem is Auschwitz, lynchings, Rwanda.  The problem is the murder of thousands of Chinese Uyghurs.  One grim lesson of the Twentieth Century is that the modern nation-state now has the technology to kill millions of its own people and, given certain ideologies, will do so with great enthusiasm and efficiency.  This capability makes the dirndls and the salsa dancing and the kielbasa and the leprechauns a lot less cute.

          This is because the evil and the cute bits are both impossible without the fundamental belief that you ARE what your blood says you are.  This is not to say that wearing a dirndl on Kosciuszko Day causes genocide, but it does mean that the belief in blood that gives rise to Kosciuszko Day is also an essential component of genocide.  In order to commit genocide, you need to believe that a Jew (a Uyghur, a Cherokee, a whatever), is primarily, and eternally, a member of that group, rather than an individual with unique characteristics, hopes, beliefs, and value.  If you do not believe that all those hated people are basically the same, genocide is impossible.  In a world of individuals rather than geno-types, genocide no longer makes sense.

          The alternative to Warren’s blood politics (“identity politics,” as she might call them), is found in the Declaration.  “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights….”  This belief is the philosophical foundation of the American experiment and the American republic---that at the most fundamental level of human existence, of life and death and joy and suffering, we are NOT Cherokees and we are NOT Poles or Jews or Mexicans or Rwandans.  We’re just a bunch of “funny-looking people looking for God and trying to make a living,” as my father once put it.  All of us.
 
Copyright2020MichaelKubacki          

*The ancestor, by the way, was not necessarily a Cherokee, as Warren has always claimed.  Because of tribal movement, intermarriage and the chaos introduced by the arrival of Europeans, there is no such thing as an identifiable Cherokee DNA.  There is only a broader category of Native American DNA, which does not identify a particular tribe but which is clearly distinguishable from European DNA.

**A variation on the rule [an oddly ironic one, in this context], was Virginia’s Pocahontas Exception, which provided that you were still considered white even if you were up to 1/16 Indian.  This was because many prominent Virginia families claimed descent from Pocahontas and her husband John Rolfe, an early Virginia farmer.         

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

2020 NFL PLAYOFFS---Conference Championships

          Division Weekend started out with a clunker when my Minnesota Vikings (+7), did not come close to cashing against the quite-quite-good-and-not-bad-at-all San Francisco 49ers.  But when Tennessee, Kansas City and Green Bay all rolled home (well, OK---Green Bay actually squeaked home), I was back on top.  My ATS record so far is 4-2.


          Tennessee @ KC (-7.5)

            Though I picked the Titans to get the cheese as 10-point dogs to the Ravens, I have to admit I was a bit surprised that they not only won outright but basically crushed the Superbowl favorites this year.  The previous week, defeating the Patriots in Foxboro in January was impressive, but fluke results occur every week during an NFL season and occasionally in the playoffs.  Even following that stunning victory, neither fans nor oddsmakers gave Tennessee much of a chance to beat the Ravens.  But then they did.

          Probabilities change once we obtain more information, and Bay’s Theorem* now comes into play, at least for me.  Beating the Pats?  A shocker but perhaps meaningless, especially since New England had been on something of a downward trajectory at the end of the regular season.  But then going to Baltimore and pounding the Ravens?  It occurred to me that Tennessee had actually gotten good, but nobody noticed.  I am no longer prepared to believe the Tennessee story is all fairy dust and unicorns.

          The AYP (and other), numbers I look at are based on the sixteen games of the regular season, so I decided to check just the last six games for the Titans, following their bye week of November 17.   The differences were startling.

          Tennessee’s AYP for the season as a whole was 7.1 yards, a respectable number.  For the six games from 11-24 to 12-29, however, it was 9.8 yards (an amazing number).  Point differential for the season was 4.4; for the last six, it was 11.0.  Perhaps a more concrete example of their improvement was the difference in their two games against Houston.  In Week 15, the Titans lost to the Houstons 24 -21 in Tennessee.  Two weeks later, the Titans rolled over the Texans, in Texas, 35 – 14.

          Since I checked the last six for Tennessee, why not do the same thing for KC?  OK.  The point differential in those six was about the same as for the entire regular season.  The AYP, however, dropped from 7.4 (entire season) to 6.2 (last six), which may or may not be significant.  I hesitate to downgrade a team that won their last six games by a margin of 16ppg, so I’m not going to.  KC is good, very good.  Why shouldn’t they be?  They’re in the Conference Championship game.  But Tennessee looks like something special.

          One final item.  The three top-scoring teams in the AFC this season were:
          Baltimore        531 points
          Kansas City     451 points
          New England   420 points.
Over the last two weeks, Tennessee’s D allowed 13 points to New England and 12 points to Baltimore.  At this moment, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes must be watching the tape of those games and wondering how they can prevail over the Titans’ seemingly impenetrable defenders.

          I’m betting Tennessee plus 7½, and I may play them to win outright because I think they will.


          Green Bay @ San Fran (-7.5)

          So of course, I did the same piece of mini-research on the 49ers and the Packers.  I calculated AYP for each of them for the last six games of the season.  Green Bay’s AYP dropped from 6.2 (entire season), to 5.6 (last six games).  San Francisco’s went up from 6.6 to 8.5.

          As you may recall, I wasn’t in love with the Packers from the beginning, and placed them in the “Could Get Lucky” category rather than the “Contender” group.  The Division Week games did nothing to change that assessment.  Green Bay tried to blow their lead over the weaker Seahawks and almost did so.  San Francisco, however, perhaps because of the return of some important defensive players, handled the Vikings easily.

          On November 24, the Green Bay Packers went to San Francisco and had enormous quantities of human feces dumped on their heads by the 49ers.  The final score that day was 37 – 8.  There is no reason to believe that on January 19th, San Francisco will be worse or that Green Bay will be better.  Lay the 7 ½ and bet the 49ers.

Copyright2020MichaelKubacki  


* Most of us were introduced to Bay’s Theorem on September 11, 2001 at 8:46am, when a plane commandeered by Muhammed Atta flew into the North Tower of the World Trade Center.  At that moment, there appeared to be a very good chance the crash had been a horrible accident.  Initially, in fact, an order went out NOT to evacuate the South Tower.  Then, seventeen minutes later, a second plane flew into the South Tower, and all the probabilities changed. 

Friday, January 10, 2020

2020 NFL PLAYOFFS---Division Weekend



          Last week’s results were one up and one down.  Buffalo went to OT with Houston and lost by a field goal, so my +2.5 made me a loser.  On the plus side, Minnesota won outright as an 8-point dog.

          This week pits the four bye-week teams against the wild-card winners.  The wild-card winners are all underdogs, as they should be, but the point spreads may offer some opportunities.


          Minnesota @ San Fran -7

          Minnesota tends to get little respect in a spot like this, partly because Captain Kirk still gets no respect and partly because the 49ers have been the best team in the NFC the entire year.  San Fran’s stock went down a little bit at the end when their season concluded with a brutal stretch of five games in which they gave up a few more points than they had in the first half of the season.  Still, when you play Baltimore, New Orleans, Atlanta, the Rams and Seattle and you win three of them, and all the games are decided by a touchdown or less, I can’t be all that critical.

          Minnesota’s AYP, however, is 6.7 and San Francisco’s is only 6.6, reflecting the fact that the 49ers key ingredient for victory was the best defense in the NFC.  The offense was respectable, but only 4th best in the Conference.

          Other measures would seem to favor the 49ers.  They were 7-0 in blow-outs (Minn was 8-1), and their point differential was 10.5 points per game compared to Minnesota’s 6.5.

          I was hoping the line would be posted as 8 or 9, at which point I could take the Vikings with few reservations.  At 7 points, I am not as enthusiastic but I will still take Minnesota.  The 49ers should prevail, but the line is too high.


          Tennessee @ Baltimore -10

          Yes, I know Baltimore is the favorite to win it all, and yes, I know they beat their opponents by an average of 15.6 points/game, highest in the league.  And yes, it worries me that nobody has really come up with a solution to the problem of Lamar Jackson.

          However, Baltimore’s AYP is 6.4 and Tennessee’s is 7.1, and if my theory of what wins in the playoffs means anything, it means I have to take the 10 points with the Titans.

          The reason AYP is important, at least in theory, is that at some point in the playoffs, a team will be put in a situation where they must make some big plays, take the ball down the field and score quickly.  If Tennessee wins, or even keeps it close, it will be because Baltimore will be unable to do that.


          Houston @ KC -10

          And here’s the other 10-point line.  And this one appears to be a mismatch.

          Kansas City boasts the highest AYP in the tournament, at 7.4, which is far superior to Houston’s 5.8.  In addition, the KC defensive AYP is also a yard and a half better than Houston’s.  The chiefs outscored their opponents by 15.2 points per game.  Houston was outscored for the season.

          Kansas City was 7 – 0 in blowouts this season, while Houston was blown out three times.  This will be their fourth.

          Lay the points with Andy.  Yet again, he will probably find a way NOT to win a championship, though he has the best team in football this year.  But it’s hard to believe even Andy Reid can blow this game.


          Seattle @ Green Bay -4.5

          Green Bay looks to be the 4th best team in the NFC this year, and Seattle is the 5th.  Seattle has a slight edge in AYP while Green Bay has a better pass defense.  The differences are not large, and each team has a wonderful passer.  Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers have each won a Superbowl, and nobody would be shocked if either of them won another one, though their supporting casts this year make that seem unlikely.

          The bye week matters some.  The tundra matters some.  What matters most is that Aaron Rodgers will be throwing against the weakest pass defense of the twelve teams in the NFL tournament.  I lay the points with the Packers.

Copyright2020MichaelKubacki

Thursday, January 2, 2020

2020 NFL PLAYOFFS---Wild Card Week


2020 NFL Playoffs---Wild Card Week

The Pretenders---Philly, Seattle, Houston, Buffalo, and Tennessee
Could Get Lucky---Green Bay, Minnesota
Contenders---San Fran, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City, New England

          As always, I rank these teams by a number I call Adjusted Yards/Pass (“AYP”), which is a measure of the ability to make big pass plays.  The “adjustment” aspect of it involves interceptions, which I use to reduce the actual yards/pass a team has achieved during the season.  I also look at Defensive Adjusted Yards/Pass, which is not nearly as important because defense is not nearly as important as offense in winning the Superbowl.  Finally, I note point differentials, and team records in blow-out wins of ten or more points.  Very good teams will normally have a number of blow-out wins during the season and very few blow-out losses.

          And then there’s Lamar Jackson.

          Baltimore has an AYP of 6.4, which is the seventh best of the twelve teams in the tournament.  Their defensive AYP is only the fifth best.  Based solely on these numbers, Baltimore would appear to be a team that might win a game or two, but probably wouldn’t make it to February.  The Lamar Jackson factor, however, is why they have the highest point differential (15.6 points/game) in the league, why they have won nine of the ten blow-outs they have been involved in, why they scored more points than any other team and, of course, why they are the top seed in the AFC.  Defensive coordinators have yet to solve the Lamar Jackson conundrum and until they do, Baltimore will be the favorite to win it all.  I’m going to pick against them in the AFC Championship game on January 19 because that’s what my numbers will tell me to do, but I will not be shocked or confounded if Mr. Jackson proves me wrong.

          Starting with the NFC, four teams are tightly bunched at the top of the AYP list---New Orleans (6.8), Seattle (6.8), Minnesota (6.7), and San Francisco (6.6).  Of these, however, SF has a clear edge in pass defense, an advantage in point differential (10.5), and a record of 7-0 in blow-outs.  New Orleans and Minnesota have very similar numbers for 2nd and 3rd favorites in the NFC, while Seattle is further back with the worst pass defense in the tournament.  Green Bay, despite having a week off as the 2-seed, is one of the weaker NFC combatants.

          The AFC, by contrast, has three dangerous contenders in KC, Baltimore and New England along with three others---Buffalo, Houston and Tennessee---who have little chance of success.  KC has the best AYP in the tournament at 7.4, New England has the best defensive AYP at 3.1, and Baltimore, of course, has Lamar Jackson.  All three teams have beaten their opponents by an average of more than 12 points per game.  It would be surprising if the AFC team were not favored in the Superbowl this year.

          Buffalo @ Houston -2.5.  Buffalo is the better team here in every category except AYP, where it trails by a small amount.  Houston has lost three blow-outs this year and actually has a negative point differential in the regular season. The game is in Houston, but with Buffalo sporting a 6-2 record on the road this year, I will gladly take the points and the Bills.

          Tennessee @ NE -5.  Tennessee has a very respectable AYP of 7.1, scored 402 points for the season, and achieved a notable victory over Kansas City in Week 10.  I don’t expect them to win in New England (in January!), but considering the Patriots’ difficulties scoring points over the last half of the season, the game could be close.  I pass this game, though if I were forced to choose, I would lay the points with the Pats.

          Minnesota @New Orleans -8.  You know, Kirk Cousins really did have a wonderful year.  His QB rating was 107.4, which was second in the league to another guy you probably never heard of named Drew Brees.  AYP for these two teams were 6.8 and 6.7, with defensive AYP also about the same.  Point differential was 7.3 for NO and 6.5 for the Vikings.  Just on the basis of raw numbers, I don’t see a lot of difference, which is why eight points looks like a lot to me.  I’m taking Minnesota.

          Seattle @ Philly +1.5.  These two are clearly at the bottom of the NFC barrel, with very small (but positive) point differentials and the two worst pass defenses in the conference.  Seattle is at least a wee bit better in every regard, and beat the Eagles 17-9, in Philly, in Week 12, in a game that could have gone either way.  This is a toss-up, and while I may have a dollar riding on the Eagles, I can’t recommend you do the same.  The logical bettor will pass this contest.

Copyright2020MichaelKubacki