2014 NFL PLAYOFFS

There are times when the raw numbers of a team's season do not tell us how good they are. This year, after losing to the NY Giants in Week 8, the Eagles were 3–5, and looked like they were on their way to 3–13. Then Nick Foles figured something out, and the Birds won 7 of their next 8.

Then there's Green Bay, with its lackluster 8–7-1 record. Stuck in the middle of their season, however, is a 2-5-1 mini-season when they were quarterbacked by guys not named Rodgers. In the other games, Rodgers was 6-2. And now, for the playoffs, he's back.

These are well known stories this year, as is the perennial tale of New Orleans, the “home” team. As usual, the Saints are 8-0 in Louisiana and 3-5 elsewhere. What you may not have noticed is that Cincinnati has the same home/away split.

Other teams have started strong and faded. There's KC, of course, but there's also Carolina, whose blow-out wins all came in the first half of the season. The most surprising fall-off was probably Indianapolis, which was outscored by its opponents over the last half of the season.

There's a lot of this stuff to keep in mind, even though I will be relying heavily, as always, on yards/pass adjusted for interceptions. This single statistic remains the only reliable measure of success in the playoffs and the Superbowl. Rushing yards, turnover ratios, sacks, FG%---all these things have their place, and each can be used to describe some aspect of football reality in a season or a particular game. What they cannot do is predict a winner. Adjusted yards/pass, however, though it has little descriptive value, acts like a chemical reagent to reveal something that would otherwise remain hidden---who is likely to win. In the morass of men and motivation and data and hope and history and expectation that is a yet-to-be-played game, there is a team destined to prevail, though its identity is obscured. Adjusted yards/pass dissolves that morass, lays bare the football truth and shows us that identity. It burns away the silt and clay and shows us the gold. Adjusted yards/pass itself has little to do with the football we see. Its meaning resides within the game rather than upon its surface. Adjusted yards/pass is the vehicle of the game's consciousness.

In the NFC, the six seeds are as follows:

1. Seattle

2. Carolina

3. Philadelphia

4. Green Bay

5. San Fran

6.New Orleans

My rankings are (with adjusted yards/pass in parentheses), are:

1. Carolina (7.2)

2. Seattle (6.6)

3. Philadelphia (7.2)

4. San Fran (6.2)

5. New Orleans (6.6)

6. Green Bay (6.1)

I also look at defensive yards/pass, which is not as important as offensive yards/pass, but it is the best measure of pass defense available. Here, since Seattle has the best pass defense and Philly one of the worst, it makes sense to flip them in the rankings.

For the AFC, here are the seeds:

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Cincinnati

4. Indianapolis

5. KC

6. San Diego

My rankings:

1. Denver (7.3)

2. Cincinnati (5.4)

3. New England (5.6)

4. KC (5.4)

5. San Diego (6.9)

6. Indianapolis (5.5)

The abberation is San Diego, with the worst pass defense in the tournament, though Rivers remains one of the league's elite quarterbacks (and he had a great year to boot). There are reasons they are 9-7 and needed miracles to make the playoffs.

The longterm prediction in the AFC is easy. No one is close to Denver. They will play in the Superbowl. It's hard to throw New England out of the mix, so I suppose I'll grant them a puncher's chance, but the other four have no shot in Colorado, even if they get there.

The NFC is much tougher. Carolina, Seattle, Philly and San Fran all have some realistic hope of playing for the ring. On the strength of Drew Brees, I would even give New Orleans a chance were it not for the fact they have played their last home game this year.

N.O. @ Philly (-2 ½)

It would be easy to take Philly here, and I do think Philly wins the game, but as a betting proposition it scares me. It is true that New Orleans lost five games on the road this year, but they lost mostly to good teams. The worst was St. Louis (at 7-9). The other thing that concerns me is that Drew Brees is always capable of lighting up a bad pass defense (e.g., 49-17 over Dallas in Week 10), and Philadelphia's is not good. The Eagle secondary appears competent, but pressuring a QB is not Philly's strong suit.

I can imagine Drew Brees putting up 42 points and winning this game. I can also see da Iggles posting 49 and beating him, but I ain't betting on it.

K.C. @ Indy (-2 ½)

Andrew Luck is a good quarterback and he is probably good enough to win a Superbowl for a good team someday, but I am tired of hearing him annointed as the next Brady, the next Manning, the next Brees, etc. He's not there yet and he may never be. Cam Newton had a better year than Andrew Luck. Philip Rivers had a much better year. And Alex Smith had at least as good a year.

Indianapolis was 11-5, which consisted of going 6-0 against the weak Tennessee, the wretched Jacksonville and the dreadful Houston, and then a mere 5-5 against the decent teams in the league. They were outscored by 4 points over the last eight games of the season. In addition, the Colts were BLOWN OUT (ten or more points) four times this season. Teams that challenge for the Superbowl almost never lose games like that. Denver didn't this year. Seattle didn't. New England didn't.

And yet...

Indianapolis is a puzzle. All my numbers tell me KC wins this game outright, so I'm taking a live dog here. However, even though I have grown to hate the hype about Andrew Luck (I don't even like his name!), the Colts, in the space of a month, beat San Francisco, Seattle and Denver. They also beat KC two weeks ago, though at that point most of the KC starters were homeless guys Andy Reid had picked up next to the dumpster behind Arthur Bryant's. The game was meaningless.

The heck with it. KC's offense is better, their defense is better, and Andy Reid has been resting his guys for most of December. KC wins.

S.D. @ Cincinnati (-7)

Cincinnati crushes teams at home. They have the best pass defense in the tournament. In the AFC, they have scored the third-most points and given up the least. San Diego, on the other hand, while it does feature the wonderful and charming (and fertile) Philip Rivers, has the very worst pass defense in the playoffs. They really shouldn't even BE in the playoffs because all they had to beat in their final game was more of Andy Reid's homeless guys.

I'm laying these points. You can never be entirely comfortable with a big line like this in the playoffs, but the Bengals are significantly better than San Diego, especially in Cincinnati. I view this as a mismatch.

San Francisco (-2 1/2) @ Green Bay

Looking at the Packers over the course of the season, one cannot like the Packers here. But then there is Aaron Rodgers, in Green Bay, in the playoffs, in January. Is he all better? Is he a bit rusty from his injury layoff? Are there things he can't do? I don't know the answers to these questions. I don't know if Mrs. Rodgers knows the answers to these questions. I don't even know if there is a Mrs. Rodgers. Maybe he's gay, like all the other NFL quarterbacks nowadays.

San Francisco is an excellent road team (6-2, +10.5 points/game). Though they had some hiccups early in the season, they have won six in a row and appear to have all their parts in working order. They are, as far as I can tell, better than Green Bay (and in a much tougher division). I have to pick San Fran to win this game. I won't bet on it.

Copyright2013MichaelKubacki