Friday, January 28, 2022

2022 NFL PLAYOFFS---Conference Championships

 

          I went two out of three last weekend (I had the Packers, Cincy and KC), for a current total of 4-3.  I also said the Bungles would win outright, so I give myself an extra pat on the butt for that one.

 

          Here are the regular-season AYP numbers for the four remaining teams:

          Cincinnati            7.4

          San Francisco      7.3

          LA Rams             6.6

          Kansas City         6.4

 

          And here are the AYP numbers for the two playoff games:

          Cincinnati            7.6

          San Francisco      4.6

          LA Rams           10.9

          Kansas City         8.7

My two selections this week are dictated largely by my system and the numbers.

 

          Cincy @ KC -7

          The Bengals are at least as good at throwing down the field as KC is.  The pass defenses are comparable and they both have a decent, but not dominating, running game.

          The Bengals beat the Chiefs 34-31 on January 2.  I’m not going to predict that Cincinnati will win this game, though it would not surprise me.  But I am comfortable taking the seven points with a crew that I suspect is slightly better than the Chiefs, but may not be as flamboyant or exciting.

 

          San Fran @ LA Rams -3.5

          I fear the San Francisco 49ers because nothing in my philosophy explains how they got here.  I can try to ignore the Dallas game because Prescott is a mutt who is capable of losing to anyone in the playoffs.  The victory over Green Bay is baffling, however.  Garoppolo, who commanded an offense that scored a total of two touchdowns in dispatching the Girls and the Packers, should not prevail over Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay.  Yet he did.

          But I have no choice but to take the Rams.  In contrast to the 49ers, they have posted two excellent passing performances in beating the Cardinals and the Bucs.  Also, their regular-season pass defense was significantly better than the 49er’s, (though there can be no complaints about the SF pass defense at the moment).

          San Fran beat the Rams twice this season, the last time on January 9, in Los Angeles, in OT.  So maybe it comes down to the usual wisdom from the usual geniuses, that it’s VERY difficult to beat a team three times in the same year.  I’m taking the Rams to win that third game after dropping the first two, and I’m laying the points.

 

Copyright2022MichaelKubacki

 

         

Friday, January 21, 2022

2022 NFL PLAYOFFS---Division Weekend

           I went 2 and 2 for Wildcard Weekend, and I’m not proud of it.  I didn’t see Buffalo coming, but perhaps I should have.  My other loser, the Cowgirls, was a much better team than SF (which will get crushed this week), but I failed to take into account the now irrefutable fact that Dak Prescott is a mutt.  He cannot be trusted.  San Fran did not play an especially wonderful game, but they at least showed up.  Dakota and the Boys did not.

 

          We had AYP (Adjusted Yards/Pass) numbers for each team for the regular season, and we now have AYP numbers for the twelve teams that played on Wildcard Weekend.  Here they are:

          Winners

          LA Rams    13.0 AYP

          Buffalo        12.3

          KC               8.9

          Tampa          7.9

          Cincy            7.3

          SF                 4.9

 

          Losers

          Dallas            5.0

          Pitts                4.8

          Vegas             4.5

          Philly              3.7

          NE                  3.5

          AZ                  0.6

 

          I conclude from the Wildcard games that the teams who can throw the ball down the field tend to win in the playoffs.

 

          In my examination of the upcoming four games, I seek evidence, hints or suggestions as to which teams will be able to complete long passes and which teams will not.  In the Buffalo-Patriots game, for example, if we had known Buffalo would finish up with 12.3 AYP and the Patriots would have 3.5, the Bills would have been an automatic selection.  Unfortunately, on any given Sunday…etc., etc., etc.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

 

          Just out of curiosity, I compiled the rushing stats for the winners and losers as well.  The winners will always have more rushing attempts than the losers because once you get a lead, you run the ball in order to keep the clock running.  Other than that, I see nothing very useful in the rushing numbers.  The winning teams ran the ball 183 times for a total of 778 yards, and an average gain of 4.3 yards per attempt.  The losers rushed 110 times for 481 yards and an average of 4.4 yards per attempt.  Running the ball has very little to do with winning playoff games.

 

          Cincy @ Tennessee -3.5

 

          The wrong team is favored here.  Cincinnati will win outright.

 

          Tennessee’s season was highlighted by a five-game winning streak that stretched from October 18 to November 14 when they beat Buffalo, Kansas City, Indy, LA Rams, and New Orleans.  They then finished the season with a 4-3 run that included losses to Houston, New England and Pittsburgh.  The four wins in that string were blow-outs of Jacksonville and Miami along with squeaker victories over San Fran and Houston.

 

          Tennessee is here because of its running game, fifth in the NFL with 2404 yards.  Their AYP, however, is a mere 5.7, compared to the Bengals’ 7.4 in the regular season (and 7.3 in its Wildcard win).

 

          Take the points.

 

          SF @ Green Bay -5.5

 

          This one is something of a challenge because San Francisco went on the road and won a game as an underdog against what appeared to be a formidable Dallas team.  One is tempted to ask, “Are these guys for real?  Are they peaking at the right time?  Can they go into the tundra this weekend and slap the Packers around as well?

 

          I doubt it.  When I look at the 49er’s game against Dallas, I see a Cowboy squad that scored 31 points per game putting up 17, at home, in a playoff game, against the worst pass defense in the tournament.  During the season, San Fran intercepted nine passes.  The only playoff team with fewer defensive interceptions than San Fran was Vegas.

 

          The 49ers were the happy recipients of a Cowboy meltdown.  There is no reason the think Aaron Rodgers will be similarly kind.

 

          To their credit, San Fran has the best regular season AYP (7.3), of any team in the NFC.  But Green Bay’s number was 7.0, which was second best.  Also, the Packer pass defense is far superior to San Francisco’s.  And then there’s the tundra….

 

          Take Green Bay.  Lay the points.

 

          LA Rams @ Tampa Bay -3.5

 

          The Bucs won seven of their last eight games, losing only the puzzling 9-0 debacle to the Saints on December 19.  They lost their earlier game to the Saints as well, and a game to the Redskins, and they also fell to the Rams on September 26.  Tampa won the other thirteen and they outscored their opponents by 9.4 points per game.

 

          The Rams won twelve games and outscored their enemies by 5.2 per game.  Their AYP is the same as Tampa’s and their pass defense might be a hair behind Tampa’s.  Or it might not.

 

          One is tempted to say this is exactly the sort of game Brady will find a way to win, and maybe he will.  There is not much distance between the two teams in terms of the numbers I trust, however, so I will pass.

 

          Buffalo @ KC -2.5

 

          The low point of Kansas City’s season came on October 10 when they lost at home to the Buffalo Bills by a score of 38-20.  At that point, they were 2-3, and every sportswriter in America was assigned to write an article entitled, “What is Wrong with Patrick Mahomes?”  The two or three who concluded there was nothing wrong with Patrick Mahomes were correct.  The Chiefs finished the season winning nine of their last ten, beating five playoff teams and losing to the Bungles by only a field goal.  In their last six games, they outscored their opponents by an average 14 points.  Their AYP of 6.4 is almost a yard better than Buffalo’s.

 

          Not that Buffalo sucked.  Of the twelve games they won this season (eleven regular season and one playoff), the smallest margin of victory was twelve points.  All their victories were blowouts.  No last minute field-goal wins.  No bad call by the refs to give them a disputed victory.  Over the entire season, they outscored their opponents by 11.5 points per game, the biggest margin in the NFL.

 

          The other point in Buffalo’s favor here is that they have the best pass defense of any of the remaining teams in the playoffs.  It is certainly better than KC’s.

 

          Nevertheless, I will bet the Chiefs to continue their roll to the conference championship game.  Josh Allen will score some points for the Buffaloes, but the central question of this game is whether the Buffalo pass defense is so good it can stop Mahomes.  I don’t think it can.

 

          Take the Chiefs and lay the 2.5.

 

Copyright2022MichaelKubacki

Friday, January 14, 2022

2022 NFL PLAYOFFS---Wildcard Week

           I refer the reader to previous articles on my NFL playoff predictions for the philosophy that guides me.  In a nutshell, the teams that win the NFL playoffs are teams that can complete long passes.  The best defensive teams rarely win.  Teams with run-based offenses never win.  What you have to do to win a Superbowl is throw the ball down the field.

 

          For this reason, my primary tool is a number I call AYP, or “adjusted yards per pass.”  This is the number of yards gained passing during the season divided by the number of passes thrown, and adjusted downward for the number of interceptions thrown.  A very good team will have an AYP over 7 for the season.  An AYP of 6 is pretty good.  Teams with an AYP under 5 do not play games in the month of February.

 

          PRETENDERS are those teams with very little chance of winning a game.  This year, they are Las Vegas, Pittsburgh and Philly.

 

          CONTENDERS are the teams nobody would be surprised to see in the Superbowl.  Usually, there are two or three.  This year there are six because no one at the top appears invincible:  KC, Buffalo, New England, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and Dallas.

 

          COULD GET LUCKY is where I put the franchises that I think (follow me here), could get lucky.  Some of them, perhaps most, will win a game or two.  They tend to have something wonderful going for them or they are peaking at the right time or they have a relatively easy path to the Superbowl.  They are:  Tennessee, Cincinnati, LA Rams, Arizona, and San Fran.

 

LV Raiders @ Cincy -5.5

          Vegas is one of those teams that manages to sneak into the playoffs having been outscored by its opponents---by 65 points.  Cincy certainly had its ugly moments (losing to the Jets once and Cleveland twice), but did win the AFC North and outscore its foes by 85 points.  Both these teams appear to going backwards, but Cincinnati started from so much higher a level than Vegas that the Bengals should be able to win and cover this spot.

          Neither is distinguished for their pass defense, but on the offensive side, the Bengals posted a 7.4 AYP.  This was the best number in the AFC, and considerably better than the Raiders’ 6.5.

          I can bet Cincy here.

 

New England @ Buffalo -4.5

          On December 6, the Patriots went to Buffalo in a very cold game with wind gusts of 40 mph.  New England threw three passes that night, for twelve yards, and beat the Bills 14-10.  The game is now Exhibit A in the increasingly popular theory that Josh Allen doesn’t like bad weather.

          This Sunday night promises minus-number wind chills and, while high winds are not predicted, rain and snow are a distinct possibility.

          Looking at the numbers, both the Pats and the Bills have scored a lot of points this year and they may have the two best pass defenses in the tournament, though there are other contenders.  New England’s AYP, however, is 6.4 vs. Buffalo’s 5.6, so I have to give the Patriots the edge.

          I would make this game a toss-up, so I will take the points that come with the Patriots.

 

Philly @ Tampa Bay -9.5

          There’s no reason to think Philadelphia can win this game.  Over the course of the season, the Iggles were 1 – 7 against teams with winning records, and the one win was against the Saints, who only became a winning team when they beat Atlanta in their finale to go 9 – 8 overall.  The Iggles are not one of the 14 best teams in the NFL.

          The teams played in Philly on October 14, and Brady barely broke a sweat in building a third-quarter 28-7 lead.  Fifteen meaningless points later, the game ended with Tampa still on top at 28-22.

          And that’s the problem here---the 9.5 point line.  Tampa’s AYP is better than the Eagle’s, their pass defense is much better than the Eagle’s pass defense, and while Jalen Hurts is a very nice young man, Tom Brady has been in ten Superbowls and has won seven of them.  Tampa is at least 9.5 points better than the Eagles, and I expect them to be ahead by two touchdowns or more at some point in the game, but a back-door cover by the Philadelphians is as likely as not.

          I must pass, though the Bucs will win.

          All of which reminds me, for no particular reason, of my hope for the new name of “The Washington Football Team,” which will be announced on February 2.  I want them to be called “The Landover Maryland Football Team.”

 

San Francisco @ Dallas -3

          The 49ers are being touted by some wise guys as a team that can beat the Cowboys, and it is true that they have improved as the season progressed, but so have the Cowboys.  SF has outscored their last six opponents by an average of 5 points per game, but Dallas has outscored their last six by 16 per game.  San Fran has the worst pass defense in the entire tournament, while Dallas has the best in the NFC.  San Fran has a losing record against winning teams, while Dallas does not.  Dallas scored a hundred more points this year than the 49ers, and gave up (a few) less.

          What San Francisco does have is an AYP of 7.3, which is the highest in the NFC by a small amount.  The Dallas AYP is 6.8.  If you want to bet the 49ers, that is what you are counting on---that Garoppolo will be able to complete more long passes than Prescott will.  Considering that Dallas leads the NFL in interceptions, I’m not buying it.

          I’m taking Dallas, laying the three points, and expecting a comfortable win.

 

Pittsburgh @ KC -13

           Three weeks ago, Pittsburgh went to Kansas City and played a Chiefs team weakened by a COVID outbreak that kept three starters out of the game, including Travis Kelce.  Nevertheless, KC took a 30-0 lead midway through the third quarter on the way to a 36-10 win.  The only reason to think this game will have a different result is that Andy Reid has an inexplicable habit of, once in a while, taking a vastly superior and heavily-favored team and losing to an inferior foe by three touchdowns.  (See, e.g., the 2021 Superbowl.)

          In the last six games. KC has outscored its opponents by 84 points; Pittsburgh has been outscored by 12.  KC’s AYP is 6.4.  Pittsburgh’s AVP is 5.2, the worst number in the field.  A “blowout” in my lexicon means a game decided by 9 or more points.  Pittsburgh has been blown out five times this year.

          Laying thirteen points is always a gamble and carries with it the danger of the better team going out to a large lead and then giving up enough meaningless scores to lose the cover.  I will take that chance here, though I wouldn’t do it in the Philly at Tampa game.  I lay the points and pray that Andy doesn’t forget he has a game Sunday.

 

Arizona @ Rams -4

          Looking at the overall numbers for both teams this season, this appears to be a fairly even match-up.  They split their two division games with each winning on the road.  They scored and gave up about the same number of points over the full season.  Arizona’s AYP is 6.9 versus 6.6 for the Rams.  On the other side of the ball, the Rams’ pass defense might be a shade better.

          What separates the two is that the Rams are rising as the Cardinals are fading.  The Rams won five of their last six, losing only their last game, in overtime, to the 49ers.  In the process they outscored their opponents by 52 points.  Arizona went 2-4 in their last six and were outscored by 25.

          The Cardinal swoon is troubling, and it’s not the way you want to come into the playoffs.  Therefore, the Rams must be favored, and four points sounds about right.  I can’t bet this one.

 

Copyright2022MichaelKubacki     

                

Monday, January 3, 2022

OUR COVID CHRISTMAS

 

          Well, it’s not like we didn’t have big plans.

 

          Our buddy Jane was going to spend Christmas Eve with us, sleep over, then awaken on Christmas morning and open all her fake-poop and fart-joke presents.  Then there was to be a big beefy dinner with my favorite brother-in-law, and then another feast, somewhere, with Sandy’s mother.  Then our son Tex, his wife Carrie, and two of our friends were flying in a couple days later for a belated Christmas and a New Year’s celebration.  The refrigerator and freezer were full of ribs and roasts and fruits and chowder and smoked fishes.  I had even started cleaning the bathrooms and trimming the jibsheet and swabbing the fo’c’sle.

 

          And then, on the morning of the 23rd, as I was heading out the door for my last day of work in 2021, Sandy shoved a swab up her nose and came up positive for the ‘rona.

 

          And that, as they say, was that.     

 

          She had been complaining of a sore throat for a couple days, and had even talked the family doc into a script of penicillin for strep throat, but that night she had awakened at 3AM in a pool of night-sweat, and this oddball symptom, she informed me, was a particular marker for the new omicron version of the ‘rona.  Hence the need for a test, and hence the result.

 

          The first communique, of course, was to the family doc again, to report the test result and ask for something to treat her with.  Sandy sent this:

 

          Hi, I talked to Dr. Lewis yesterday and together we thought I had strep or the flu. However, last night I had some Covid symptoms and took a test this morning which came back positive. Is there anything I can take like ivermectic or regeneron? I'm currently taking penicillin. I am vaxed.

 

            Not surprisingly, this was his response:

 

          No,
            The omicron strain is the dominant strain in the US now and is not sensitive to monoclonal antibodies like regeneron. Ivermectin is for intestinal worms and has never had any effect on COVID.  Rest, fluids and tylenol or ibuprofen for the fever or pain is all you can do. If you have been triple vaccinated you are more likely to be struck by lightening than to have a severe course requiring hospitalization.
            Take care,
            DL

 

            This, of course, is what our medical profession has been doing for the past twenty months---refusing to treat patients who get COVID, or even see them.  Stay home, don’t infect anybody else, and put this oxygen thingie on your finger so that when you’re about to stop breathing we can put you in a hospital on a ventilator and you can die there.  BECAUSE THERE IS NO TREATMENT FOR COVID!!!!

 

          But of course there are treatments for COVID and there always have been, and even if there were no obvious treatments at first, that is not an excuse for doctors refusing to search for them and refusing to see their patients.

 

          What do clinicians do for a living, anyway?  A patient presents himself with an illness or injury, and the clinician (e.g., your family doctor), picks the situation apart, looks at the pieces and the evidence, and tries to reason his way through it.  Maybe this drug will do X.  Maybe that other drug will help with Y.  Will rest help?  Will exercise?  Vitamins?  And when they share their results, knowledge advances, and a few sick people start to get better.  This is what doctors have done since doctors first existed.

 

          Until now.

 

          Of the million or so doctors in the United States, there may be two or three hundred who tried to treat patients with COVID early, so they would not become hospitalized or dead.  The rest were too afraid, or perhaps they were too accustomed to following “guidelines” from the government or from insurance companies.  Fauci and his ilk ran point on this initiative, threatening doctors who dared to prescribe hydroxychloroquine or ivermectin (the two most prescribed drugs in the world for COVID), discouraging the use of monoclonal antibodies and making them impossible to get, and pointing everyone toward vaccines and more vaccines and vaccines only.

 

          The refusal to treat early COVID extends to virtually all the hospitals and medical schools in the country.  Mayo Clinic?  Nothing.  Harvard?  Nothing.  Johns Hopkins?  Nothing.  You will look in vain for treatment protocols from these institutions for patients in the early stages of the ‘rona.  None of these institutions developed such protocols because none of them ever treated a ‘rona patient.  Instead, people were told to stay home until they were near death, then we’ll put you on a ventilator.  And, oh yeah…we’re gonna slap this Do Not Resuscitate order in your chart.  OKAY???

 

          My cousin and his wife got the same treatment---nothing---from their family doctor when they came down with COVID (and were quite sick), eight months ago.  Stay home, measure your oxygen levels, and hope for the best.  There’s nothing anybody can do.

 

          The few doctors brave enough, or conscientious enough, to buck the system found ways of treating patients and making them better. This was pre-vaccine and pre-monoclonal-antibodies, but the results being published by responsible clinicians were simply ignored by the public health establishment.

 

          Clinical outcomes after early ambulatory multidrug therapy for high-risk SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) infection was published in late December of 2020 and can be found at https://imrpress.com/journal/RCM/21/4/10.31083/j.rcm.2020.04.260/htm

It is not the only study of its kind but I cite it because 1) it was among the first reports on what was possible, 2) it reported a huge reduction in hospitalizations and death, and 3) it coined the phrase “therapeutic nihilism” to describe what was happening in hospitals, medical schools and clinics across America:

 “The rates of death in our study indicate that early multidrug therapy is associated with >>90% reduction in mortality among the high risk compared to community rates of death associated with therapeutic nihilism in ambulatory patients who are subsequently hospitalized.”

 

          All of this was because Fauci and Trump and their helpers decided we were going to put all our eggs in the basket of mass vaccination, and that any form of treatment had to be mocked and disparaged by the doctors who might otherwise try to help people.  Fear was the tool they chose to make people line up for the shots.  This was a conscious policy decision.  Drugs like hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin had to be treated like pure madness and quackery.  Doctors who prescribed them could lose their licenses.

 

          A final note on this topic.  I get the impression, and it’s only an impression, that there are a lot of nurses and medical tech workers who know what is going on in the practice of medicine at the moment, and they don’t like it.  Doctors themselves, however, present an almost united front of cowardice and incompetence.

 

          *

 

          Sandy was truly sick.  Her throat was on fire, she had an ugly cough at all hours of the day and night, and she was carrying a coffee cup around the premises and hocking disgusting loogies into it.  This is not something I am accustomed to seeing.  I can’t say I was ever truly worried about her survival, but I watched her for any signs of breathing difficulty or fever.  And at night, even though she would probably have been more comfortable in a bed by herself, we slept together just so I would be there in case of an emergency.

 

          Another odd symptom became apparent as time went on.  This was the COVID brain fog you may have read about.  While Sandy and I are not complete geezers, we both have moments when we misplace the car keys or forget why we went into a room.  But this was different.  She simply could not hold a thought in her head for any length of time, and her short-term memory just stopped operating at times.  At one point, there was a small bag of Christmas presents sitting on the bed and we discussed what they were, who they were for, how we might get them delivered, and so on.  Then, about an hour later, she noticed the bag again and asked me what they were.  There were several other incidents like this over the course of 48 hours.

 

          But the worst of it was finished by Christmas, just two days after she had tested positive.  That was when it became possible for her to get some food down her throat.  She was still sick, still dropping off for long naps, still coughing, but it was obvious she was getting better.  The following day, we went out and took a walk around the block.

 

          Today, December 30, exactly one week after her positive test, she tested negative.

 

*

 

          Being stuck in the house for a while is not necessarily unpleasant.  In fact, the German word “sturmfrei” (meaning “storm-free”) describes the carefree state of being home with no roommate or no parents around, perhaps lying on the couch in your underwear, watching a movie, with a drink in your hand.  Isolation with a dreaded disease, however, is something else.  When none of your friends want you around and will have nothing to do with you, you start to think you are diseased subhuman scum and a bit of depression sets in.  The diseased-subhuman-scum treatment was new to Sandy, and though it will be temporary for her, she didn’t like it.

 

          At this point, I’m used to it.  Once it became apparent from my blog and other sources that I had no plans to get vaccinated, almost all my family and friends began to shun me.  There was never any discussion of this, it simply happened.  I am not included in any of their plans, not even family events like birthdays or holiday gatherings.  Friends who used to go out to dinner with us now do not accept invitations.  There is no excuse offered, or a “rain check” suggested---the invitation is merely declined without explanation.  After one or two such incidents, you get the message.  I don’t offer invitations anymore, except to those few who are still willing to interact with me.

 

          I will accept certain limitations on the way I will interact with people who will still see me.  Most of these make no sense whatsoever, but if it makes them comfortable….  For example, there are some who will go to a bar or restaurant with me, or have a conversation with me on the street, but will not come into my house.  Fine.  I can live with that.

 

          I have my limits, however.  I will not stand outside in 30 degree weather and have a conversation of more than a sentence or two, and I will NOT wear a mask to accommodate an acquaintance’s fears or their need to signal their obedience to the New Normal.  I won’t even sit there with them if only THEY are wearing a mask.  For one thing, it makes me distinctly uncomfortable to interact with people who believe I am somehow a danger to them, and for another, I get a sense of participating in something dirty.  Consenting to the mask ritual feels like being a “good German” even though I am not personally smashing the windows of Jewish businesses.

 

          The rules that people keep in their heads cannot be fit into any rational pattern, and since they won’t usually discuss them, I am left to guess what they are.  Last summer, I played golf with a buddy several times, sat in the same golf-cart, talked maskless, etc.  I later visited him in the hospital and even wore a mask since it was a hospital rule, but when he went home for an extended rehabilitation, it was made clear to me I was not welcome.  I don’t know if this was his rule or his girlfriend’s edict since nobody ever told me, but the new protocol is unmistakable.  I haven’t seen him for six weeks and I don’t know when I ever will.

 

          Where masks are concerned, I tried for many months to adopt an attitude of “you do your thing and I’ll do mine,” but the time has run out on that one.  The ‘rona has been here almost two years and there has never been a time when a fair, truth-seeking, rational investigator could examine the data and conclude that mask-wearing had any effect on the transmission of respiratory viruses.  I say that because I was that investigator.  Beginning on April 4, 2020, I read everything there was to read about the usefulness of masks, starting with the previous twenty-five years of peer-reviewed studies on the topic.  You cannot spend the dozens of hours I spent doing this and come away with the belief that masks do any damn good at all. 

 

          Yet the need to strap a diaper to your face is now a matter of unshakeable faith for the faithful.  Not only do they believe it, they have literally no doubt about the importance of masking, so that even a suggestion of doubt can send them into a rage.  Beyond that, on-line discussion of the pointlessness of masking is regularly suppressed and censored.  The mask issue is extremely telling.  The only thing the believers have done so far is swallow what they are told on TV---there is literally no other basis for their belief---and until they stop doing that, I don’t see how I can take them seriously about anything related to COVID.

 

          So I push back.  What can I do other than push back?  If my attitude is “let’s all do our own thing,” and yours is “do what we tell you or you will be crushed,” I’m going to wind up in the prison camp face down in the mud.  Totalitarians, like bullies, cannot be appeased.  And with mask mandates in effect in towns and cities and states and nations all over the world, I have only two options: sign up with the New Normals or fight them.  It does not appear they will ever leave me alone to make my own decisions and live my own life.  I must be demonized.  I must be segregated.  I must be barred from polite society until I embrace their ideology and their superstitions.

 

*

 

          Over the past week, one of the first questions we are asked on the phone is whether I am also sick.  When we tell them I’m in perfect health, the typical reaction is laughter, but a few people conveyed the impression they were annoyed that Sandy (who is vaxxed) got sick but I (unvaxxed) did not.  Nobody has actually come out and said, “Why didn’t YOU get sick, ya bastard?” but that seemed to be the sentence that got caught in their throats.  A couple people asked me if I had been tested, on the theory that I might have COVID but be asymptomatic.  (Almost everybody I know thinks this happens regularly.  It’s an essential part of the system of beliefs and obedience rituals.  Without asymptomatic COVID, there would be no possible justification for masks, lockdowns, etc.)

 

          Since the Diamond Princess cruise ship incident in Yokohama in February 2020 (and other similar events), we have known that about 85% of humanity are immune to COVID, and based on my more-or-less constant interaction with people of all ages, sexes, races, national origins, religions, ethnic groups, vaccination status, and patterns of bodily hygiene, it has been obvious that I am one of those 85%.  I have told everyone I am immune because I have been exposed to the virus hundreds of times and never gotten sick.  It’s the only rational conclusion from the available evidence.  I’ve been saying it for almost two years now, though no one believes me.  It’s why my friends and family treat me like diseased subhuman scum even though I am actually the safest person they could hang out with.

 

          But though I have been immune, I am now starting to wonder whether I still am, or will continue to be.  The initial 85% number was confirmed in late 2020 by the CDC’s survey on what it called “secondary household infections.”  This was a count of the people who lived in a house where somebody living there (your wife, your kid, grandma, somebody), caught the ‘rona, and it turned out that only about 15% of the other people in the house would get the damn thing.

 

          Now, however, with the omicron version spreading, you have to wonder whether 85% of us are still immune.  This is what happens with viruses, of course.  They become less dangerous but easier to catch.  It’s a very good thing when this happens even if the Faucis and the Anderson Coopers and the Snoop Dogs are still telling everybody to freak out.  It’s a very good thing when people get a sniffle but don’t go on a ventilator or die.

 

          On December 30, NYC reported 44,000 new ‘rona cases.  This is an amazing number, and set some kind of record for new cases in a place that has a lot of people in it.  Since the vast majority of these people will get no more than a cough, and will now be immune from COVID, this appears to be great news.

 

          In addition to the decline in bad or lethal outcomes, the omicron surge in New York is wonderful for another, even more important, reason.  Three quarters of NYC is vaccinated, a lot of them have one or even two booster shots, they wear masks everywhere, they have dinner in Plexiglas bubbles, and what has happened?  The hundreds of thousands of new cases over the past week are overwhelmingly those who got all the shots and followed all the rules, but they are STILL getting the virus.  The justification for vaccine mandates, which was never able to withstand much scrutiny to begin with, is evaporating before our eyes.  What is the point of all the lockdowns and masks and segregation and vaccines if all the people who are locked down and masked and segregated and vaxxed are spreading the virus to each other at record-breaking speed?

 

          So I am encouraged.  The precautions and safety protocols have never appeared more absurd and pointless than they do now, and I am hopeful that some percentage of the true believers will realize that.  The counter-argument I have heard is that the believers have been presented with lies and propaganda from the beginning and they have never done anything but believe them, so why would they change their minds now?  And it is true they were never really persuaded in the first place, and that their acceptance of the New Normal ideology was never a rational process.  It was more akin to the way cult members are recruited, through fear and constant repetition of the basic precepts.  So how can the believers be made to see that the COVID madness doesn’t make sense now?  It never made sense before, but that hasn’t seemed to matter.

 

          I hear the argument, and it is troubling, but I remain optimistic.  That is because I do not need ALL the New Normals to abandon ship at once.  All I need is for a few of them to lose their zeal for the new totalitarian state.  If that happens, the entire edifice may crumble.  That is because those who are pushing this are far from their ultimate victory.  Yes, there are places where the unvaxxed cannot work, ride a bus or buy food in a market, and there are places where the disobedient are thrown into quarantine camps without legal process, but mere segregation and demonization is not enough to create a fully locked down, unfree society.  This is only a transitional period.  Every totalitarian movement in the 20th Century had to purge the refuseniks by killing them, putting them in prison indefinitely, or so thoroughly terrifying them that resistance vanished.  We are seeing this process play out in Australia and Germany and Canada and Austria and a dozen other countries, and it is frightening, but my hope and belief is that it will be more difficult to accomplish in the United States.

 

          Diversity is our strength, remember?  That’s what the woke tell us all the time.  Well, in this case they may be right.

 

          The medico-authoritarian state has not advanced in the U.S. nearly as far or as quickly as it has in other countries, and there are states like Florida and Idaho and South Dakota where it has barely advanced at all.  Federalism and state sovereignty are powerful safeguards for liberty precisely because they make it difficult for an all-powerful central government to take over everything, everywhere, all at once.  And this is not the first time federalism has protected us by preserving liberty in some places when it was under attack throughout the land.  Jim Crow, which existed in much of America for seventy years, is a perfect example.  There were times when a majority of Americans would have supported the separation of races (or at least would not have opposed it), and southern Democrats were eager to extend segregation as far as they could.  There were always states like Vermont and Michigan, however, which would not tolerate it, and it is the existence of such outposts that can keep freedom alive until the rest of the nation comes to its senses.  The COVID madness in America is not found everywhere, and as long as there are islands of sanity, there is hope for all of us.   

 

Copyright2022MichaelKubacki