2014 SUPERBOWL

Those of you who follow this blog religiously (i.e., nobody) will have noticed that I began picking NFL playoff games in the 2010-2011 season, which means I have picked three Superbowls prior to this one. In 2011, I took the Steelers over Green Bay. Then in 2012, I chose the Patriots over the NY Giants. Last year, I took the 49ers minus the points and then watched the Ravens (almost) romp. I'm 0 for 3. Then there was the 2012 presidential election. I liked Romney in that one. How did he do?

This year, I'm taking Denver minus the 2 ½ points. A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of my little mind, and since I still believe an ability to throw the ball down the field is a prerequisite for success in the NFL playoffs, I have to pin my hopes on Peyton Manning. Denver's adjusted yards/pass number is 7.3, best in the league. Seattle's is 6.6.

Defensively, Seattle gives up an amazing (adjusted) 2.6 yards/pass, while Denver's number is a merely decent 5.2 yards/pass. Seattle led the league in interceptions with 28. Seattle gave up a league-best 231 points (only Carolina and San Fran joined them in the under-300 category). They truly have the best defense in the league.

On the other hand, Denver's accomplishments on offense were even more astonishing. Denver scored 606 points, which no team had ever done, and the second-highest number in scoring offense was Chicago's, with 445. Put another way, the Broncos scored 37.9 pts/gm, while the second-best offense in the league scored 27.5/gm.

This game, unlike many Superbowls, may very well be decided by the officials. Seattle's pass defense is not especially subtle or nuanced. It is simply brutal. Receivers coming off the Denver line will be pushed, grabbed, and knocked down. That's how the Seattle defense plays and it's how they have been allowed to play. It is not much of an exaggeration to observe that a flag might be thrown on the Seattle defense on every Denver pass play. Just ask Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco what he thinks of the way the officials have treated the Seattle pass defenders.

The referees will set the tone for this game in the first quarter. Certainly, they won't flag everything the Seahawks do; at this point in the season, after the Seahawks have been allowed to cheat all season, it would unfair to take their “game” away from them completely. On the other hand, what Denver has accomplished on offense this year deserves a certain amount of respect as well, and I would hope the zebras will not allow the secondary simply to flatten Denver receivers every time Peyton steps back to pass.

Copyright2014MichaelKubacki