The US
Department of Justice (Eric Holder, Proprietor), yesterday released
its report on the shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri.
It's a schizophrenic document which completely exonerates Darren
Wilson (the officer who shot Brown), while condemning the Ferguson
police department itself for racially-biased and discriminatory
practices. The bias bits, quoted widely in the press, consist of
“gotcha” statistics with no accompanying analysis or attempt to
place the findings in context.
One of
the most touted of these statistical findings is that 93% of the
arrests in Ferguson are of African-Americans, though the population
is only 67% African-American. The (unspoken) conclusion to be drawn
is that the Ferguson police often arrest black people because they
are black and not because they are criminals. To put it another way,
the implication is that the same behavior that would land a black man
in jail will be overlooked if committed by a white person.
What
the DOJ report does not mention, however, is the underlying
assumption of this 93%---67% comparison. This disparity can only
have a racially-discriminatory explanation if the crime rates for
white people and black people are the same. This, in fact, is what
the DOJ would have us assume---that the rate for crimes committed by
black people and the rate for crimes committed by white people are
the same. But they are not, of course. The crime rate for black
people is about six times the crime rate for white people, and it has
been this way in America for at least fifty years.
Over
the years, crime rates for different races and ethnic groups vary.
They also vary from city to city. They may also vary with respect to
specific crimes. Since the 1960's, for example, robberies by blacks
occur at eight times the rate as that by whites. The homicide rate
for blacks is about four times that for whites. The crime rate for
rapes is only twice as large for blacks as it is for whites. These
numbers have been documented repeatedly, for decades, across the
country by city and state and federal authorities. The idea that 67%
of the people in Ferguson (i.e., the black people) commit 93% of the
crimes there is hardly surprising.
Let's
translate this with some numbers. Since 2/3 of the residents of
Ferguson are black and 1/3 are white, let's say there are 2000 black
people there along with 1000 whites. Now let's assume that Ferguson
resembles America over the last fifty years and that the black crime
rate is six times that for whites. Therefore, if there is one white
criminal per thousand white people, there will be six black criminals
per thousand black people. Thus, out of the three thousand residents
we are assuming, there will be one white criminal and twelve black
criminals. Blacks will be 12/13 of the criminals and will commit
12/13 of the crimes, and will probably represent 12/13 of the
arrests. That's 92%.
The
reason 93% of the arrests in Ferguson are of black people is that 93%
of the crimes in Ferguson are committed by black people. There is no
other plausible explanation.
Copyright2015MichaelKubacki
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