Thursday, February 2, 2012


In the all-important yards/pass metric, the Patriots are the best of the AFC and the Giants are third (after Green Bay and New Orleans) in the NFC. Among teams in the playoffs, both of them were well down the list defensively (NE fifth in the AFC, NYG fifth in the NFC).

Two teams with excellent offenses and adequate defenses---an absolutely typical Superbowl.

New England's offense (7.3 yds/pass, adjusted) is better than New York's (6.5 yds/pass, adjusted). Defensive yds/pass numbers favor the Giants, but by a much smaller margin. New England should win this game, and by more than the three points by which they are favored.