Tuesday, December 31, 2019

2020 NEW YEAR'S RESOLUTIONS



1.  Patrol my neighborhood once a week and shoot racists, misogynists and anti-Semites before they cause any trouble.

2.  Start using the metric system for everything.

3.  Learn how to refine my own petroleum so I can stop paying those high gas prices!

4.  Wear a disguise for any journey of more than 25 miles.

5.  Drive faster when I’m drunk so I get home quicker and don’t endanger other drivers.

6.  Balance my gut flora.

7.  Stop Brexit once and for all.

8.  Change my personal pronouns once a week, and don’t use any (like “him” or “her”), that will allow haters to pigeonhole or gender-identify me.

9.  Learn something about Latvia!  I don’t know anything the place!  Do you???

10. Only wear blackface on important holidays like Memorial Day or Christmas.

11. Finally start paying reparations by giving a dollar to a different black person every day.

12.  Rinse and repeat, consistently!

13.  No matter how bad I may feel in 2020, resolve never to be a Hatey McHateface.

14.  Whenever I buy something (e.g., at Target or Trader Joe’s), that is NOT a “fair-trade” product, pay an extra quarter to the cashier and tell them to give it to the farmer.

15. Eat more red meat but less blue-green meat.

16. Go natural, and stop coloring my hair.

17. Get rid of everything I own that was invented by a white person.

18. Brew my own mead, make candles and soap, make my own formica, ferment foods and vegetables for our pantry, sew my own clothing, raise chickens in the backyard, bake my own bricks, and construct a (small) nuclear weapon.

19. Drink beer whenever I feel like it.  Why be shy about it?

20. Yoga!!!!

---Copyright2019MichaelKubacki

Saturday, November 9, 2019

CATS


          When the first hunter-gatherers began to grow crops and settle into villages, one problem that presented itself immediately was how to store grain and keep it safe from the ravages of rats, mice, and other varmints. As if in answer to a prayer, cats began to appear at food-storage sites in order to feed on the vermin and, coincidentally, protect the grain so humans could survive. Humans noticed, and made the cats welcome with warmth and shelter and food so the felines would take up residence in the area. From that point, it was a short step to find me sitting in my Barcalounger watching an Eagles game with a tabby purring in my lap.

          Among domesticated animals, cats are unusual since we can't ride them, we don't eat them, we can't milk them, we don't make coats out of their pelts, and they can't pull a plow. They don't even care about pleasing us, like dogs do. From the beginning, it has been simply a straightforward business relationship, and one which THEY initiated.

          It is sometimes said that we did not domesticate cats; they domesticated themselves. Another way to put it is that they domesticated us, rather than the other way around. In any event, we owe them a debt we can never repay for helping us through the difficult and dangerous transition from hunting and gathering to agriculture. If it were not for cats, we might still be feeding ourselves by wandering through the Wissahickon plucking spotted lanternflies off trees.

Copyright2019MichaelKubacki


Saturday, October 26, 2019

THE DEMOCRATIC RACE---October 2019

     There appears to be some resistance to the anointing of Elizabeth Warren, and the result is that betting sites now have her at 7-5, though she was the odds-on favorite two weeks ago.  The main beneficiaries of her weakness are Bernie and Pete (but not Biden).  Current approximate betting odds:

Warren  +132

Biden     +335

Pete       +685

Sanders  +816

     The race appears to be a replay of the 2016 race for the Republican nomination.  The most obvious similarity is the large field, but the more important feature is the unwillingness of the party to coalesce around its front-runner.  Trump too held a plurality lead for months, but there was never a point (until the convention). when the opposition crumbled.  Warren, like Trump, seems locked in a prolonged war of attrition where she will have to put away her rivals one by one.  By contrast, the Democratic race in 1991 also had a large field until Bill Clinton took the New Hampshire primary, and then the race was basically over.

     The news coverage also mirrors the 2016 Republican race,  There, it seemed that each candidate got to be flavor-of-the-week until Trump came up with a disparaging nickname for him and put him away.  In turn, Rubio, Carson, Christie, Rand Paul, Kasich, Fiorino, Cruz, and even Jeb! got a few moments in the spotlight before Trump toasted them.  The same dynamic is playing out for the Dems this time, with Bernie and Pete and Beto and Yang and even Kamala Harris getting renewed interest from the media.  (The one exception is Biden, who just sits there like the house by the side of the road, waiting....)

     The difference between this and the Bill Clinton 1992 race is this: when someone drops out, most of that person's supporters do NOT go to Warren but to one of the other contenders.  This is what happened with Trump as well.  Warren is clearly on top of the field, and in fact, I think the race is over, but there is as little enthusiasm for her as there was for Trump among the Republicans in 2016, and for the same reason.  The party faithful do not believe she can win.

     And they're probably right.  Most likely, Trump would chew her up, spit her out, and still have time to grab a pussy and a few emoluments on his way to 18 holes at Mar-A-Lago.  For one thing, considering her politics, how can she ever recover the working-class Democrats and union members that gave the 2016 election to Trump?  Also, does she have a prayer of attracting the 90+%  of black voters any Democrat would need to be elected president?  

Copyright2019MichaelKubacki

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Elizabeth Warren---The Globe Lends a Hand


    In preparation for her run for the Democratic nomination in 2020 against twenty-three other candidates (suggested campaign slogan: “23 and Me”), Elizabeth Warren did two things in order to clear her name of the stench engendered by her misappropriation of racial identity. In October of last year, she released the results of a DNA test indicating that ten generations ago, she may have had a Native American ancestor. Prior to that, however, she had released her personnel file from Harvard, and this resulted in a September 1, 2018 article in the Boston Globe in which reporter Annie Linskey concluded that Warren’s claim to be a Cherokee had had no effect on her career. While the DNA test got far more attention from Donald Trump and the media, the Globe’s blessing of Warren’s convenient claims of Indian ancestry deserves more attention than it has received.

    The point is that there is one reason, and one reason alone, that Elizabeth Warren can credibly run for president: she is a US Senator from Massachusetts. And the reason she could credibly run for US Senator in the first place was that she was a Professor at the Harvard Law School. There is no comparable credential. Yale’s Law School may occasionally be ranked higher than Harvard’s by the people who rate such things, but there is simply nothing more prestigious in the world of deep-thinking-on-public-affairs than being a Harvard Law Professor. People like Lawrence Tribe, Alan Dershowitz, Lani Guinier and Elizabeth Warren become celebrities. Elena Kagan was a Harvard Law Professor before joining the US Supreme Court. Even mere graduates of HLS become famous---four other current Supreme Court justices also got their degrees at Harvard Law.

    In the Globe article, Ms. Linskey interviewed 31 Harvard law professors (all she could find), who were on the faculty at the time Warren was hired for the academic year beginning in the Fall of 1992. She reports that 30 of them said there was no discussion of Warren’s Native American claims in the deliberations that led to her hiring. One of the 31 said he thought it came up, but he wasn’t sure. In addition, several of the 31 stated not merely that the issue was not discussed, but also that her racial status had nothing to do with their decision to recommend her for hiring. These interviews form the entire basis of Linskey’s conclusion that, in fact, Warren’s status as a “woman of color” or a Native American was not a factor in her hiring.

    This conclusion cannot be taken seriously.

    In response to Linskey’s Globe article, a woman named Jennifer Braceras, a law student at Harvard during the relevant period, wrote a piece entitled “One of Elizabeth Warren’s Harvard Law Students Explains Why Her Native-American Gambit Matters.” She took Warren’s class, and she even liked her as a teacher, but she points out that Warren used her “family stories” at a time when elite law schools were desperate to hire racial and ethnic minorities.

    “In the early 1990s, HLS was a hotbed of left-wing agitation. I was there and remember well the explosive protests and sit-ins that erupted over a lack of diversity on the faculty. In April 1992, scores of protestors demonstrated outside Dean Robert Clark’s office, some of them wearing masks of Clark’s face. Nine students (my closest friend among them) refused to leave the Dean’s office for over 25 hours. Their specific demand? That the administration hire a faculty member who was a “woman of color.”

    This was the atmosphere when Elizabeth Warren arrived in Cambridge for her job interview. And while it may be true that her racial identity was not explicitly discussed, that was because it didn’t need to be. Since 1986, when she taught at the University of Texas, Warren had listed herself as a minority law professor in the Association of American Law Schools Annual Directory, a standard reference. Her name, in bold, was listed in each of the next eight editions.

    So on the face of it, the claims of the 31 faculty members interviewed by the Globe are hardly credible, are they? I mean, what are they supposed to say to a reporter from the Boston Globe? “Sure. We just hired her because she said she was a Cherokee or a Sioux or something. We didn’t care. We just needed a Red Indian on the faculty before Jesse Jackson showed up.” (Which he did, by the way.) I don’t think so. Assuming their true motives were exactly what they appear to be, there is a zero percent chance any of them would admit it today. Plus, given that this occurred more than 25 years ago, one can understand that even if their motives had been fully as cynical as they probably were, the process of cognitive dissonance would by now allow them to view themselves in a much more favorable light. Memories change over time, usually in a way that makes it easier for us to live with ourselves.

    But quite apart from the credibility of the 31 faculty members, there is another reason Elizabeth Warren would NEVER have been hired to be a Harvard Law Professor on her own merits. There is another, much more obvious reason she would not have asked to join the faculty unless the fix was in.

    Ever wonder who gets hired to teach at Harvard Law School? Ever wonder what law school they went to? Would you be surprised to hear that most of them went to Harvard Law School?

    The HLS faculty is listed in a directory on the University website. I looked at them all. For the ones whose law school degree was not listed, I went a bit further and Googled their education. Then I made a list of the full-time members of the faculty and where they went to law school. I eliminated the Emeritus listings because most of them are 120 years old and don’t teach much, and I eliminated the “Clinical” professors because these are not primarily academic positions, so they are much less prestigious.

    For the 92 full-time non-emeritus, non-clinical, members of the HLS faculty, here’s a tally on where they got their law degrees:

Harvard 57

Yale 24

Chicago 5

NYU 3

Stanford 1

Columbia 1

Texas 1

    The next step was to check these schools on the 2020 U.S. News Ranking of American Law Schools. The top six of these are, in order, Yale, Stanford, Harvard, Chicago, Columbia, and NYU. These six schools thus account for 91 of the 92 full-time law professors currently teaching at Harvard. The University of Texas is listed at #16 (of the 201 law schools ranked), so it too confers an elite status on its graduates. The lone HLS professor who went to Texas, by the way, is Kristen A. Stilt, a professor of Islamic Law who, prior to law school, had obtained a Ph. D. in History and Middle Eastern Studies from---wait for it---Harvard University.

    There is very little turnover in the U.S. News Rankings, which have been compiled since 1987. There have only been fourteen law schools that have ever made the top ten. And Texas is one of them.

    Rutgers Law School is not among that magic fourteen. It is ranked 75th in the current U.S. News list, which is about where it always shows up. That’s where Elizabeth Warren went to law school after her undergraduate career at the University of Houston, a school primarily known for its basketball teams.

    I’m not saying Elizabeth Warren is a dope, and I’m not saying that if you don’t have a law degree from an elite school like Harvard or Yale, you probably drool more than the rest of us. I’m not a snob.

    But the people at Harvard are. The elitists at a place like HLS think the world of themselves; they like themselves a lot. They would NEVER hire a graduate of Rutgers Law School to teach at Harvard because her mere presence there would reflect on them and their own prestige. They would be afraid her Rutgers cooties would rub off on them. Unless, of course, they were forced to hire her for reasons of political correctness and “diversity.”

    I will wager that no one with a law degree from Rutgers, or a school ranked lower, has EVER been offered a professorship at Harvard Law School. The Boston Globe’s conclusion that Elizabeth Warren was hired purely on her own merits is based solely on the self-serving tut-tuts of Harvard academics who thought this had been swept under the carpet 28 years ago and are now appalled (“Appalled,” I say!), that anyone would question them now.

    Even the Globe acknowledges there were serious questions about Warren at the time she was hired. For one thing, her primary strong point was apparently her skill as a teacher, which tends to be pretty far down the list of qualifications for a professorship.

    “’I thought she was going to be a whiz-bang in the classroom,’ said Andrew Kaufman, a Harvard law professor who supported her. ‘You just have to be in the room with her to see it. It was electric. She would call on 40 people in the hour. The atmosphere was highly charged. The questions were good. She made people think….’”

    Linskey continues:

    “There was less consensus over her brand of scholarship, in which she had pioneered a way of using surveys and actual bankruptcy records to determine how laws affected real people. Warren’s approach was a little too practical, and not intellectual enough, for some.

    ‘The views had a lot to do with the methodology she was using,’ recalled David Wilkins, a Harvard Law professor who voted to offer Warren a job. ‘Was it the right methodology?’”

    The argument presented here, that Harvard would never have hired Elizabeth Warren, was not addressed in the article though it would be obvious to anyone who knows anything about law schools and the hiring of professors. Instead, Ms. Linskey simply trusted in the veracity of those with a powerful motive to “misremember” what happened. This was journalistic malpractice.

    To correct it, all that needs to happen is for Ms. Linskey or the Globe, or Harvard itself, to present another instance in the history of HLS where a person of Warren’s credentials was hired, on his or her merits, to a full (non-“clinical”) law professorship. Barring that, this attempted white-wash by the Globe cannot be permitted to remove the stain of these dirty racial politics from Elizabeth Warren’s record.

Copyright 2019MichaelKubacki

Friday, January 18, 2019

NFL PLAYOFFS---2019 Conference Championships


Rams @ New Orleans -3.5

          Looking at the yard/pass numbers, these are clearly the two best teams in the NFC.  The Saints have a small edge in offensive yards/pass and the Rams have a small edge in defensive yards/pass.  The Saints outscored their opponents by 9.4 points per game, while the Rams outscored their opponents by 8.9.  Based simply on these metrics, New Orleans deserves a small edge and that’s exactly what the line says: 3 ½ points.  Based on the season-long numbers, I would pass.
          However, the defenses of these two teams are going in opposite directions.  For the first 8 games of the season, the Saints gave up 27 points per game; for the last 8, that number is 17ppg.  The comparable numbers for the Rams are 23 ppg in the first 8, and 29 ½ ppg in the final 8.  The Saints, in other words, have gotten quite a bit better as the season progressed and the Rams have gotten quite a bit worse.
          For me, that’s enough to tip the scale.  I’m taking the Saints and laying the points.

Pats @ KC -3

          In the AFC game, KC has the largest adjusted yards/pass number in the tournament at 7.5, while NE is a full yard behind.  KC is second only to New Orleans in outscoring opponents---9 points per game versus New England’s 7 points per game.  In addition, KC has never been “blown out” (beaten by at least nine points), this season, while the Patriots have been blown out three times.  New England’s defense has been better than the Chiefs’ most of the year, but KC completely shut down an Indianapolis offense that many analysts thought would put some serious points on the board.
          In short, my metrics suggest that KC should cover this three-point spread.
          On the other hand….
          Since the 1970 merger of the NFL and the AFL, the Patriots have played in 14 AFC Championship games and have won ten of them.  This will be the eighth year in a row they are playing in this game.  By contrast, in those fifty years, KC has made it to ONE AFC Championship game, which it lost.  I know the players were different, I know the coaches were different, I know everything was different, but still….
          And then there’s Tom Brady, of course, who is still pissed off about losing last year.  And then there’s Andy Reid, the Jacques Who of football coaches, who always wins ten or twelve games a season but can never win the big one.  How many times have we seen that goofy, befuddled, fourth-quarter look on his puss as the clock ticks down in yet another game he should have won but is losing by 14?
          I refuse to bet Kansas City in this game, though my numbers tell me the Chiefs are the best team this year and will win not only this game but the Superbowl as well.  Sorry.  I pass.

Copyright2019MichaelKubacki

Thursday, January 10, 2019

NFL Playoffs 2019---Division Week


I went 2-1 last weekend, with a miracle push in the Dallas-Seattle game.  I got Indianapolis completely wrong.

Indy @ KC -5

At 7.5 adjusted yards/pass, the Chiefs boast the best number in the field, and Indy’s 5.8 is among the worst.  This kind of difference would normally suggest a romp for KC and I would lay the points.

I have reservations, however.  First off, Indianapolis came into the tournament on a roll and basically CRUSHED a decent Houston squad.  I was impressed.  Since Andrew Luck was drafted (in 1968), everyone in football land has been certain that he would someday 1) grow up, 2) get healthy, 3) finally find himself surrounded by a team that could perform football-related tasks in a competent manner, and 4) win seven or eight Superbowls.  Has it actually happened, now that we all finally gave up on him?

Second, while the defensive yards/pass figures for KC and Indy are the same, the Colts defense has gotten a LOT better as the season progressed.  KC has been outscoring everybody while giving up about 26 points per game. Indianapolis was also allowing opponents 26 points/game for the first half of the season, but then tuned up the D and permitted only 16 ½ points over the last eight games.  This is the best scoring defense number over the second half for any team in the tourney.

And then there’s Andy, of course.  Despite all his disciples in the NFL coaching fraternity (who are rather tediously listed during every national broadcast of a KC game), the tale of Andy Reid has one recurring theme---losing the big one.  And while his QB, Mahomes, is the most entertaining player in the league, and while the Kansas City Chiefs have the best yards/pass numbers this year and should be the favorite to win it all, I just don’t believe it. Andy always finds a way to lose a critical game he should win by two touchdowns, and I fear this matchup might be the one.

Even beyond Andy himself, the franchise is cursed.  The last time the Chiefs won a home playoff game was a wee bit over twenty-five years ago, on January 8, 1994, when they squeaked by the Steelers 27-24 in OT.  Since then, KC has gone 1-10, its only triumph a wildcard victory in Houston on January 9, 2016.  Four of the ten losses have come in this exact situation, with the Chiefs earning a bye and then losing their first home game in Division Week.

Can’t bet this game.   KC is the best team out there, and Mahomes, if he stays healthy, will break records as a QB.  But I pass.

Dallas @ Rams -7

This one is quite a bit easier.  The Rams dominate the Cowgirls in yards/pass and defensive yards/pass.  They have outscored opponents by nine points per game, compared to Dallas’s one point per game.  Like KC, the Rams outscore everybody, and they will do so here.  Lay the points.

Chargers @ New England -4

I make this game a pick ‘em, so I’m taking the Chargers with the points.  I know the Patriots don’t lose much in January in Foxborough, and I know Brady is probably pissed off about last year, and I know the Pats had the bye week leading into this home game.

Still, the Chargers are half a yard better in adjusted yards/pass, and the teams are comparable in defensive yards/pass.  It was hard to like the Chargers’s win over Baltimore, a game they totally dominated and should have won by 30, but actually won by 6.  I don’t know much about Chargers coach Anthony Lynn, but I have to think his strangely passive strategy against the Ravens will not be repeated in Massachusetts this week.  Assuming he has learned his lesson, I’m taking the Bolts (and the points), in what I expect will be a close game.

Philly @ New Orleans -8

Yards/pass numbers here are comparable to those in the Rams-Dallas matchup, though you only get a TD with the Girls and you get a bit more with the Iggles.  For those of you hung up on reason and logic and Western Civilization, I suggest you pass this game because it will probably be won by the Saints, but it will be a lot closer than the 48-7 pasting delivered by the Saints to the Eagles on November 18.  The Saints, by any measure, are better.  Are they 6 points better?  Ten points better?  I dunno.

For those of you who now believe in magic elf Nick Foles, however, please join me in betting the Eagles to win outright in some outlandish fashion that none of us dare imagine.

Copyright2019MichaelKubacki

Friday, January 4, 2019

NFL PLAYOFFS---2019


          As we all know, magical elf Nick Foles (“BDN! BDN! BDN!”), has emerged from his sylvan lair and will lead the Eagles through four road victories to yet another Superbowl championship and MVP trophy.  There’s really not much point in playing the games.

          However, for those of you who tune in here once a year for a dose of football science, I will proceed as if Nick did not exist and as if the winner of the NFL tournament will be, as it normally is, the team best able to make a big pass play when it needs to.

          These predictions will be based, in other words, on yards/pass numbers (adjusted for interceptions), for the regular season.  I also calculate defensive yards/pass, just because it is easy to do.  Also, one cannot help but notice that New Orleans and KC each outscored their opponents by an average of over nine points per game, while the Cowgirls and the Eagles topped their foes by an average of only one point.

Pretenders

          Every year, there are three or four playoff teams that appear to have no realistic chance of winning the Superbowl.  This year, those teams are Indianapolis, Dallas, Philadelphia and Seattle.  It is possible for these guys to win a game, and this year at least one of them will, since Seattle is playing Dallas in the first round.  It is rare for any of them to go much further.

Could Get Lucky

          There are four of these as well, and they are inferior to the real Contenders in yards/pass, but they have something going for them.  These are Chicago, Baltimore, Houston and New England.


          Chicago and Baltimore have the lowest figures of any team in the tournament, at 5.6 yards/pass, and this would normally relegate them to the Pretender class, but they have the two best defensive yards/pass metrics.  Chicago’s is a mere 3.9 yards/pass, and Baltimore’s is 4.8.  In addition, both teams appear to be peaking at the right time.  In particular, Mr. Harbaugh was supposedly going to be fired as the Ravens’ coach, but then he found his own magic elf quarterback, a guy named Jackson, and now the Baltimores have apparently transitioned from the Flacco era on a high note.

          I dunno.  I don’t really believe in either one of them, and a great defensive team only wins the Superbowl every ten years or so, but Chicago and Baltimore are both better than Dallas.

          As for the other two, well, one of them is New England WITH a first-round bye, so that’s that.  The other is Houston, with a respectable yds/pass number of 6.6.  In addition, they lost their first three games and then won eleven out of the last thirteen.  Their pass defense is not as good as you think it is but their offense is better.  Houston is allowed to get lucky.

Contenders

          This leaves New Orleans, the Rams, KC and the Chargers.  Pop quiz: what do these teams have that the Washington Redskins do not?  That is correct!  A great quarterback.

          In order, their yds/pass numbers are KC (7.5), New Orleans (7.1), Rams (6.8), and Chargers (6.8).  The New Orleans defensive numbers are slightly worse than the others, but the Saints also have the highest points differential (9.4 points/game), of the four.  The Chargers are the only one that have to play a wild-card game, so that puts them at the bottom of the pile, but not by much.

          Take your pick.

Wild Card Games

Indy at Houston -1.    I’m not sure why this line has been dropping.  Maybe there are Andrew Luck fans who have suddenly decided THIS is the year.  At last!  In fact, Houston is a better team on both sides of the ball, and they are at home.  Take the Texans.

Seattle at Dallas -2.5.  Seattle has the better QB and the better pass defense.  Also, while Dallas outscored its opponents by one point per game, Seattle outscored theirs by five.  Seattle will win this game outright.

Chargers at Baltimore -3.  The Chargers beat the Ravens in yard/pass 6.8 to 5.6.  This is a significant difference.  Baltimore has been hot since installing Jackson as QB, and their pass defense is probably better than the Chargers’, but if the ability to throw the ball down the field means anything in the playoffs, the Chargers will win this game.

Eagles at Chicago -6.5.  The Bears have certainly been a better team than the Eagles for most of the season, and their pass defense is the best in the tournament.  However, Philly’s yards/pass is 6.2 to Chicago’s 5.6, so I’m taking the dog again.

Copyright2019MichaelKubacki