There appears to be some resistance to the anointing of Elizabeth Warren, and the result is that betting sites now have her at 7-5, though she was the odds-on favorite two weeks ago. The main beneficiaries of her weakness are Bernie and Pete (but not Biden). Current approximate betting odds:
Warren +132
Biden +335
Pete +685
Sanders +816
The race appears to be a replay of the 2016 race for the Republican nomination. The most obvious similarity is the large field, but the more important feature is the unwillingness of the party to coalesce around its front-runner. Trump too held a plurality lead for months, but there was never a point (until the convention). when the opposition crumbled. Warren, like Trump, seems locked in a prolonged war of attrition where she will have to put away her rivals one by one. By contrast, the Democratic race in 1991 also had a large field until Bill Clinton took the New Hampshire primary, and then the race was basically over.
The news coverage also mirrors the 2016 Republican race, There, it seemed that each candidate got to be flavor-of-the-week until Trump came up with a disparaging nickname for him and put him away. In turn, Rubio, Carson, Christie, Rand Paul, Kasich, Fiorino, Cruz, and even Jeb! got a few moments in the spotlight before Trump toasted them. The same dynamic is playing out for the Dems this time, with Bernie and Pete and Beto and Yang and even Kamala Harris getting renewed interest from the media. (The one exception is Biden, who just sits there like the house by the side of the road, waiting....)
The difference between this and the Bill Clinton 1992 race is this: when someone drops out, most of that person's supporters do NOT go to Warren but to one of the other contenders. This is what happened with Trump as well. Warren is clearly on top of the field, and in fact, I think the race is over, but there is as little enthusiasm for her as there was for Trump among the Republicans in 2016, and for the same reason. The party faithful do not believe she can win.
And they're probably right. Most likely, Trump would chew her up, spit her out, and still have time to grab a pussy and a few emoluments on his way to 18 holes at Mar-A-Lago. For one thing, considering her politics, how can she ever recover the working-class Democrats and union members that gave the 2016 election to Trump? Also, does she have a prayer of attracting the 90+% of black voters any Democrat would need to be elected president?
And they're probably right. Most likely, Trump would chew her up, spit her out, and still have time to grab a pussy and a few emoluments on his way to 18 holes at Mar-A-Lago. For one thing, considering her politics, how can she ever recover the working-class Democrats and union members that gave the 2016 election to Trump? Also, does she have a prayer of attracting the 90+% of black voters any Democrat would need to be elected president?
Copyright2019MichaelKubacki
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