Friday, November 27, 2020

CORONA---Philly Update

           Two entries ago, I noted that the COVID fatality rate in Philadelphia now has little to do with actual deaths caused by the virus, but is instead a function of the city’s testing protocols and the super-inclusive definition of a “COVID fatality” as the death of a person who once tested positive for the virus.

 

          Though the pandemic in this city ended in July 2020, Philly will continue to report about 60 COVID deaths per month indefinitely since

 

          1) Virtually every sick, elderly person who is about to die will get a COVID test in their last two or three months of life,

 

          2) Anyone who dies with a recent positive COVID test result will be characterized as a COVID fatality regardless of the actual cause of death, and

 

          3) About 1100 elderly people die in Philadelphia every month, and with a positivity rate for tests of 6%, about 66 of them will have recently tested positive.

 

          Now that the positivity rate for tests in Philadelphia has jumped from 6% to 11%, the number of fatalities designated as “COVID deaths” can be expected to jump as well.  In October, it was 66.   November will end soon, with 90 – 100 designated deaths.  In December, with a full month of the new 11% positivity rate, the city’s Health Department will report around 125 people dead from the coronavirus.

 

          Until the positivity rate changes again.

 

Copyright2020MichaelKubacki       

Saturday, November 21, 2020

CORONA---The Thanksgiving

            At my big-box store, we get pinged on our phones when somebody we work with gets the Rona.  Then the protocol is that we have to get our temperatures taken when we come in to work, for two weeks.  Since April, we have had one or two cases a month, so we have gotten used to presenting the forehead when we enter the office to begin the workday.

 

          In the twenty-one days of November so far, we have gotten these texts seven times, so I finally asked the HR lady about them.  Are they dead?  Are they on ventilators?  Are they sick?  No, no, and no were her answers.  Not even a sniffle among the seven of them.

 

          I’ve been reading that COVID testing sites have been overwhelmed lately with people who want a test before they visit Granny on Thanksgiving.  This is probably the explanation for the recent surge in positive tests (which some people call “cases”).  It will probably subside a bit after Thanksgiving and then explode again in mid-December as young people leave school and head home for Christmas.

 

          I’m guessing this is what is happening with my fellow employees as well.  Many of them are young and work part-time while in school, and I’m sure many of them have grannies.

 

          The seven positives I work with will have to avoid Grandma next Thursday, and that’s too bad, but we can all still be thankful this is the first pandemic in history where most of the victims remain in perfect health.

 

Copyright2020MichaelKubacki 

 

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

CORONA---The Numbers in Philly

           Philadelphia, Pennsylvania is a city of 1.5 million people.  Corona first appeared here in March, and our fatalities, as reported by the Philadelphia Department of Health, are as follows:

 

          March              14

          April               593

          May                677

          June                300

          July                 106

          August              57

          September         62

          October             66

 

          Anything that could reasonably be described as a “pandemic” ended sometime in July, but the city dutifully reports our COVID deaths and uses them, along with reports of new cases, to maintain the continuing dread.

 

          In fact, based upon current reporting and testing protocols, the numbers of deaths in August, September and October represent the statistical minimum number of COVID deaths here.  The Philly Department of Health, assuming it keeps doing what it is doing, will continue to report one or two deaths a day.  COVID fatalities in Philadelphia are now a function of the Department’s reporting practices rather than a reflection of epidemiological truth.

 

          First, based on 2019 stats, about 1192 people die in Philly every month.  A few, of course, are young people---homicides, suicides, a cancer here and there---but the vast majority are elderly Philadelphians who die of heart disease or cancer or respiratory diseases or diabetes, or Alzheimers or Parkinsons or one of the myriad of scourges that the flesh is heir too.  This means that, near the end, they are usually attended by doctors and probably spend some time in a hospital.  And in 2020, that means that before they pass on, they get a COVID test.  When you get a COVID test these days, it’s normally going to be a CPR test.  These are the ones that detect the virus’s nucleic acid, or some debris thereof, rather than an actual infection.  These are quickly becoming famous for generating a large number of false positives and “cases” where the patient has no symptoms.

 

          The positivity rate for CPR tests in Philadelphia is around 6%, so of the 1192 Philadelphians who are going to die in a given month, somewhere between 60 and 70 will have had a recent positive result to a COVID test.  Their deaths will be recorded as COVID deaths, no matter what the actual cause is.  This too is routine.

 

          Based upon current bureaucratic practices in Philadelphia regarding the virus and record-keeping, at least sixty deaths each month will be attributed to COVID.  And this will continue indefinitely.

 

Copyright 2020MichaelKubacki     

Sunday, November 1, 2020

CORONA---Now We Have To Do This AGAIN???

                “Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.”

                                             --- C. S. Lewis

 

          As we slog through this absurd chapter in American history, I am starting to get pissed off.

 

          Always, the story changes.  Now we are told reinfection with the virus is a looming danger.  There’s no real immunity, you see.  The antibodies disappear after a few weeks, or a few months.  An article I saw recently reported four cases of people who caught the thing twice.  Four people in the world.  So we’re all at risk, all over again, including the poor suckers who have already had it.

 

          Immunity for the afflicted is literally the first thing mankind discovered about disease---that if Og got the plague but somehow survived it, he wouldn’t get it again.  Humans first realized this thousands of years ago.  For Edward Jenner and the other medical pioneers of the 18th Century, it was the basic idea behind vaccination.  Ah, but neither Og nor Jenner ever had to face this SARS-CoV-2, did he?  Now we are told that even acquired immunity is a false comfort.  And most people believe it.

 

          This, of course, only concerns the type of immunity acquired by catching the disease and recovering from it.  Once the immune system has defeated the invading virus, a quantity of special B-cells and T-cells are produced that remember the specific invader and wait around (watching football games and Tik Tok videos), in case it shows up again.  They usually survive for decades if they’re waiting for measles or chickenpox to return, but the Rona-killers only last a month or two.  We are told.

 

          The obsession with these antibodies is one of the many big lies we are told by those who wish to lock us down, shut down businesses, terrify our children, and force us to strap underwear to our faces.  The memory B-cells and T-cells are important, of course, to those who have acquired them the hard way, but that is a tiny percentage of the population.  What’s truly important is the 98% of us who never got the virus even though some of us have been exposed to it almost every day.  The immunity-deniers never even acknowledge the existence of this other line of defense that has always been present.

 

          That is because COVID is a “novel” coronavirus.  It’s what they told us from the start.  Nobody (and nobody’s immune system), has ever seen it before, they claim, so we are all at risk and we still are.  That’s their story and they are sticking to it because to admit the vast majority of us never had anything to worry about would be to admit that all the societal and economic destruction these authoritarians have unleashed on us was pointless.  And that’s something they will not do.

 

          But there is only one explanation for my continued good health and the continued good health of hundreds of millions of others.  Yes, this COVID-19 is “novel” in the sense that our bodies had never encountered it specifically, but our bouts with other coronaviruses (e.g., the common cold), over the years provided us with B-cells and T-cells that could recognize COVID-19 and get the job done.  It’s a process called “cross-reactivity,” and it is NEVER discussed by the bureaucrat kings and queens who rule us.  The big lie is the refusal to acknowledge the existence of cross-reactivity and the immunity of most of the population.

 

          While I’m catharting here----is that a word?  probably not, but it should be----let me take a minute to discuss the uncaring cabal of really-smart leftwing elitists and their “experts”---the people who have brought about the shutting down of worldwide society, culture and economies and the wanton destruction of millions of lives and livelihoods.

 

          Let’s start with the slogan, “We’re all in this together,” which now, whenever I hear it, makes me grab the nearest piece of pottery and hurl it into the fireplace.  It’s not true, of course.  It has never been true, though it typifies the self-centered blindness of those who chirp it endlessly.

 

          There are certain people who are not at all inconvenienced by the lockdowns and shut-downs, and these are the people who think they are a grand idea.  These are folks with a well-paying, professional career that they can pursue without leaving the house.  Or they may be people with a comfortable stream of retirement income, the resources to have everything they need delivered, and a home containing high-speed internet, a flat-screen, a recently-rehabbed kitchen, and a small backyard area suitable for some plantings and a compost bin.  Let’s throw most public sector employees in there as well.  Not cops and firemen and garbage men, but the other ones who don’t have any work or do, or not much of it, but get paid just the same.***  Those folks are not having a very hard time of it, are they?

 

          For everyone else, it’s like a bomb went off, nobody told us it was coming, and nobody will tell us why they had to drop it on us.  For people who work in restaurants or hotels or theme parks or cruise ships, or entertainment, or anything to do with travel or tourism or fitness, well, they’re screwed.  Think of all the people who work for non-professional-level wages in jobs that can’t be done online.  There are a lot of them.  There are tens of millions of them.  And the oh-so-comfortable self-quarantiners are barely aware such people exist.  How could they be?  The poor suckers who bus the tables and turn down the beds just don’t show up in their Zoom calls.  

 

          Around the country, we are told, half the restaurants will not reopen, or if they do, will not survive with capacity restrictions.  Tens of thousands of small businesses are no more, along with the years of savings and planning that went into opening them in the first place….  But these are statistics, numbers.  Instead, let me tell you about two specific lockdown nightmares and the people involved.

 

          The Koresh Dance Company, in Philadelphia, was started by Roni Koresh in 1992 and has somehow survived for 28 years with a dance school that teaches modern dance, hip hop, ballet, and whatever to five-year-old girls, their big sisters, their mothers and their grandmas.  In addition to that thin stream of income, Roni and his brothers/partners occasionally land a small grant from somewhere or other.  The troupe, which consists of ten dancers, has performed all over the world but has never exactly qualified as a “profit center.”  I am not privy to Roni’s books, but I would be surprised if any of his dancers were paid that new “living wage” of $15/hour.  Typically, they dance for ten years because they love it, have a bartending job on the side, and then quit to search for a career that will actually allow them to eat and marry and buy a house.

 

          Though I haven’t asked, I suppose the Company was eligible for some of the federal relief money that was being handed out to help businesses retain employees, but they are not in it for the money, and the activities of the Koresh Dance Company have basically ground to a halt.  There are some online dance classes available, but attendance is sparse.  The troupe’s entire schedule of performances for 2020, and into 2021, was cancelled, so there were no rehearsals for months.  Now Roni has started them up again, but actual performances remain a distant fantasy.  Meanwhile, the dancers are in the process of losing a year from a career that may only last five or ten.

 

          I don’t know if the Koresh Dance Company will survive the lockdowns, but what is being done to them seems particularly sad and unjust.  Like anybody else, I suppose dancers would like to be rich too, but all of them went into dance for the sheer love of it, for the need to do it, and they knew financial rewards would probably never be in the cards.  They believed, however, that if they gave their art everything they had, they could survive on the crumbs available in a place as rich as America.  Then the politicians and bureaucrats decided they knew best for all of us.

 

          The other lockdown nightmare concerns a woman named Justine that I met only once.  A couple years ago, she managed to scrape together the resources to open a yoga studio in the neighborhood.  My wife does yoga, and I wound up meeting Justine at a dinner party and talking with her a bit.

 

          I think she had a couple other instructors who ran a few classes for her, but Justine did most of the teaching, along with all the marketing and accounting and sweeping up and security and everything else that somebody trying to get a small business off the ground has to do.

 

          And her business was surviving.  From my one conversation with her I got the impression yoga was “her life,” and that she was 100% focused on making her yoga-studio dream come true.  It’s hard not to root for somebody like that.

 

          And then the Governor of Pennsylvania and the Mayor of Philadelphia shut her down.  Three months later, in June of 2020, she couldn’t pay the bills anymore, and she closed the studio.

 

          A dream deferred, or destroyed.  Tens of thousands of dreams deferred or destroyed.  Lives uprooted.  Careers ended.  And our betters will never accept responsibility for it.  According to the mayors and governors and “experts,” it’s the disease that’s destroying people’s lives.  And that’s the biggest lie of all, because it’s not the virus that may destroy Koresh and it’s not the virus that shut down Justine’s studio.  It’s the lockdowns.  It’s the politics.  It’s Cuomo and Murphy and Wolf and Whitmer and Newsom and Fauci.  It’s the people who are so certain they know what’s best for us, they will not even look at what they have done.

 

Copyright2020Michael Kubacki  

 

*** Regarding public employees, I suspect there is a special place in hell for the people who work at the public libraries in Philadelphia.  Though library workers are still getting paid, these people have kept the doors locked for 7 ½ months.  Meanwhile, they demand I return a book I checked out in February, something I cannot do because the doors are locked and even the drop-boxes are closed 23 hours a day.  OPEN THE GODDAMN DOORS!