THE 2012 NFL PLAYOFFS

I come into this year's playoffs as I always do, knowing nothing about football but knowing something about games.

First, teams that can score are teams that win championships. The corollary to this law is that defense is always overrated. Though a good defense will often get you into the playoffs (in any sport), the ultimate winners are almost always those teams that, when they really really really need to, can put the biscuit in the basket. Against anybody. This is why storied players have names like Joe Namath, Reggie Jackson, Wayne Gretsky, Michael Jordan, Joe Montana, Magic Johnson, Mickey Mantle, Jerry Rice and Gordie Howe. Granted there are a few Mean Joe Greens and Bob Gibsons on the list as well, but they are far outnumbered by the parties of the first part.

Once the teams are chosen for the NFL tournament, I rate them all on a yards/pass metric featuring an adjustment for interceptions. History has shown that this number (which reflects the ability to throw the ball down the field) is correlated with Superbowl victories. The same method is also used to generate a defensive yards/pass, which is not as important as the offensive number, but it matters. Finally, I look at the point differential for each team. This year, for example, New Orleans outscored its opponents by 208 points while Denver was itself outscored by 81. Unless football results are entirely random, this difference is significant.

I rank the teams as follows:

NFC

Green Bay (surprised?)

New Orleans

New York Giants

San Francisco

Detroit

Atlanta

AFC

New England

Houston

Pittsburgh

Baltimore

Cincinnati

Denver

The differences among these teams are sometimes large, so much so that I can class some as “contenders” (Green Bay, New Orleans, NY Giants, New England, Houston and Pittsburgh) and others are “pretenders” (Detroit, Atlanta, Cincinnati and Denver).

San Francisco and Baltimore deserve their own category. They are not that good. Their passing offenses are among the weakest in the field and a team's passing offense is the primary determinant of whether that team will win the Superbowl.

However, both the 49ers and the Ravens have byes in the first round, followed by games at home (where they are 7 – 1 and 8 – 0, respectively) in the second. If they survive, they will have only the Conference Championship (which may also be a home game) between them and the Superbowl. It's hard to discard them from consideration, in other words, though neither seems good enough to win it all. Let me leave it at this: if either one makes it to the Superbowl, they will lose by double digits.

The conferences present different possibilities. In the NFC, for example, I would be as shocked as anyone if the Packers did not make it to the dance. New Orleans is a very nice team, and Drew Brees is great fun to watch. The Giants are not in that class, but they are better than they look. Green Bay, however, has the best yards/pass numbers in the field by a healthy margin, and a decent defense as well. Expect Green Bay to be playing on February 5.

The AFC is more of a crapshoot. New England is at the top of the list, and they boast the best offensive yards/pass number in the conference. The Patriots, however, depend on outscoring people; they only held an opponent to single digits once this year, and a typical victory was something like 35 – 24. Their lowest point production of the year was 17 against Pittsburgh and 20 against the Giants, and they lost both those games. It is possible to beat New England if you somehow manage to throttle their offense, and both Houston and Pittsburgh are sort-of, maybe, possibly capable of doing that. Of course, they will have to do it in the Great White North, in January.

I am hoping for (and expect) a Green Bay – New England Superbowl. Green Bay will be favored, and they will probably win it again.

The Wild Card Games

Cincy at Houston (-3). Houston will romp. Lay the points, and lay them now since they will probably increase as the week progresses.

Pittsburgh at Denver (+8). When is the last time you saw a home dog getting 8 points in the playoffs? Nobody loves Tebow more than I do (except his mom), and I will be rooting for the boy, but this game is a joke. Denver is the worst team to make the playoffs in quite a while. Lay the points. Bet the house.

Detroit at New Orleans (-10 ½). The Saints are undefeated at home, and the smallest margin of victory was a touchdown (versus Houston). The Saints certainly win this game, and they probably cover, but Detroit can light it up also, and 10 ½ is too many points. I pass.

Atlanta at NY Giants (-3). It's hard to love either of these guys. The Giants, on paper, are a bit better, and they're at home, and they are only laying three, so I guess if I were forced to bet this game, I would take New York. I'd rather pass.

Copyright2012MichaelKubacki