2012 NFL PLAYOFFS UPDATE

Denver +13 ½ @ New England

Can Tebow do it again? Well, no, of course not. But then I was the guy who told you Denver doesn't belong in the playoffs.

It's difficult to be cold and hard and logical about this game after you've spent the past few days dropping to one knee and Tebowing at the slightest provocation. A nicely cooked omelet? Down I go. Thank you, Lord! A smile from a colleague who I thought didn't like me much? Cool and the gang, Lord! A parking place next to the entrance at the mall? Hallelujah! I will be rooting hard for Tim Tebow on Sunday, as will most of America.

But honestly, guys, Pittsburgh made a classic error last Sunday. It is true they did not engage in a land war in Asia (which is the classic error---thanks, Rob Reiner), but the mistake they made was just as bad. They brought their secondary up to the line to stuff the run and they blitzed safeties all afternoon. Why? The previous Sunday, Kansas City had given up three points to the Broncos by playing them pretty much straight up. But Pittsburgh was smarter, weren't they? They decided to challenge Tebow. Let's make him beat us with his arm! And guess what---he did.

New England will not make that mistake. They are better than Denver, they know they are better, and they know they can win without trickery or an over-nuanced game plan. New England beat Denver 41 – 23 less than a month ago, and that was in Denver. They will beat them again, and they will cover.

New Orleans -3 ½ @ San Fran

This is a strange line. Why would the Saints be favored on the road against a legitimate #2 seed who had last week off?

I'm guessing it's the Drew Brees factor, and it is true the New Orleans yards/pass numbers are superior to San Fran's. The numbers are close, however, and the 49ers are 7 – 1 at home this year, while the Saints are a rather ordinary 5 – 3 on the road. In fact, the Saints on the road are a different team from the Saints at home. Away from the Big Easy, their point differential is a mere 22 points.

I expect San Francisco wins this game. I'm certainly taking the points.

New York +7 ½ @ Green Bay

The one thing you can say about the Giants is that they are peaking at the right time. Green Bay at the tundra, however, was 8 – 0, and they outscored their opponents by an average of 17 points per game. You are allowed to believe, if you wish, that the Giants have finally figured it all out and will shock everyone the way they did in 2008, but you cannot look at the numbers for these teams and conclude that this game will be close. Green Bay wins comfortably and covers.

Houston +7 ½ @ Baltimore

Houston is on the road, where you don't want to be in the playoffs Baltimore, on the other hand, is 8 – 0 at home this year and certainly has the edge over the Texans in playoff experience.

On paper, however, the game is something of a mismatch. Houston is significantly better than the Ravens on both offense and defense. I am taking the points, and I think it is likely Houston will win outright.

Copyright2012MichaelKubacki