Thursday, December 29, 2011

REPUBLICANS 101---THE TROUBLE WITH MITT

It is often said that Rudy Giuliani's campaign for president in 2008 will be taught in poly sci classes for decades as the way NOT to run for president.  Rudy, as you may recall, focused all his attention on winning Florida, ignoring the first six states in the primary calendar.  The result was that by the time Florida arrived, almost a month after the Iowa caucuses, the nomination had virtually been decided and Rudy had been forgotten.

Well, Rudy Giuliani looked like a dope in 2008.  There's no doubt about that.  On the other hand, Giuliani was always a longshot to secure the Republican nomination.  As a  pro-choice, Catholic, multiple-wived moderate from a big Eastern blue state, he was probably not going to be the Republican candidate no matter what he did, so can he really be excoriated for a strategy that maybe, possibly, coulda-shoulda  have given him a chance if things had worked out differently?  Rudy was certainly a loser in 2008, but a fool?  He had a strategy, he stuck with it, and it failed.  Was Huckabee so much smarter?  After all, he lost as well.

All of which brings us to the Romney campaign for the Republican nomination in 2012.  As I write this, there is a distinct possibility that Romney will get the nomination, though I personally doubt it.  Even if he succeeds, however, his campaign gets my nomination for the stupidest presidential run of all time.

Consider the situation when the current presidential campaign began, shortly after the Republican landslide in 2010.  All of the ideas and enthusiasm in 2010 came from the Tea Party uprising, but since the Tea Party had no political organization of its own, it decided to use the decaying husk of the Republican Party to further its political goals.  The result was a gain of 63 seats in the House, and Republican control.

At the time, memories of the 2008 campaign for the Republican presidential nomination were fresh in everyone's mind.  The choice of John McCain had been a disaster, the wrong man at the wrong time.  As a moderate in a field of conservatives, he was able to split the opposition voters and get the nomination even though only a minority in the party wanted him, but the ultimate harvest was an embarrassing defeat in November.

Following the McCain debacle and the Tea Party landslide, the path to victory for Republicans in 2012 was clear.  Nominate a conservative, harness the enthusiasm borne out of the Tea Party and the widespread horror at Obama's agenda, and roll to victory.

Mitt Romney was ideally situated to be the guy to beat Obama.  He was the “next in line” for the Republicans, he had positioned himself as a conservative (along with Huckabee) in 2008.  ALL HE HAD TO DO WAS STEP IN FRONT OF THE PARADE.  And he refused to do so.  He would not be the conservative the Republican party was looking for.  He had to be something else---a moderate, a technocrat, something....

Mitt Romney could have been the presumptive nominee for president for a year now.  He would have had to backtrack a bit on the philosophical underpinnings of Romneycare, and a few other missteps.  (He is at least partly responsible for bringing gay marriage to Massachusetts---not something you want to highlight on your conservative resume.)  But he could have put all that behind him months ago. He didn't, and he didn't because he did not want to be the conservative golden boy, even though accepting that mantle would likely have swept him to the nomination and into the White House.

Why?  I can only assume it's because he hates me, and people like me, and the things we believe in.    And at this point, the feeling is mutual.  I have really grown to dislike the guy.

In addition, I do not see him as beating Obama, though this seems to be the selling point that his supporters flog relentlessly to those of us who refuse to jump aboard the bandwagon.  He's “electable,” we are told.  I am not seeing what they're seeing.

There are many reasons to doubt this “electability” mantra, but one of the main ones is that Southerners like him even less than I do.  In 2008, Romney was very weak in the Southern primaries, and current polling does not suggest his image there has improved.  To beat Obama, a Republican will have to make serious inroads into Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, all of which were won by Obama.  Romney might even have trouble in red states like Kentucky and Tennessee, though both went for McCain in 2008.  Whatever you may think about Santorum, Perry, Gingrich and Bachman, they would almost certainly do better throughout the South than Romney would.

A further complication with Romney is that his nomination raises the likelihood of a conservative third-party candidate, and that would ensure Obama's reelection.  At this point it's hard to estimate the probability of such a thing happening, but it is certainly more likely if Romney gets the nod than if one of the conservatives does.

Finally, shouldn't it be obvious by now that America just doesn't want Mitt Romney as its president?  He has more money to spend and more name recognition, but he just can't get more than a fourth of Republicans to like him.  The rest of us have repeatedly turned to somebody, anybody, to beat him.  Bachman, Perry, Cain, Gingrich---all have been shot down.  Fine.  They weren't perfect.  I too saw their flaws.  BUT YOU CAN'T HAVE ROMNEY.  This is what I tend to scream at the conservative icons on my TV screen---Ann Coulter, Hugh Hewitt, Charles Krauthammer---when they tell me what's wrong with the other guys.  Fine, I say.  I don't need Gingrich.  I don't love the guy.  Get me somebody else.  Get me Jindel or Rubio or Palin or somebody.  Or go back to Perry and give him another shot.  BUT YOU CAN'T HAVE ROMNEY...YOU CAN'T HAVE ROMNEY...YOU CAN'T HAVE ROMNEY...YOU CAN'T HAVE ROMNEY....


Copyright2011MichaelKubacki

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