Thursday, January 27, 2011

NFL UPDATE (The 2011 Superbowl)

Well, it's not like they don't belong here, is it? In point differential, Green Bay and Pittsburgh were second and third in the league (behind only the Pats). In the most meaningful measure of defense, points allowed, Pittsburgh was the best at 232, and the Packers were next, at 240. In Adjusted Yards/Pass, the Steelers were second and the Packers were third (again behind the Pats). In Defensive Adjusted Yards/Pass, Green Bay was the best in the NFL, with Pittsburgh right behind them.

If the Patriots were not going to be in the Superbowl this year, these are the two teams that should be. Baltimore and Atlanta (or even Philly), might have gotten lucky, but they didn't, and there are no other teams in the NFL that posted any legitimate claim to greatness. Pittsburgh and Green Bay both have very effective offenses, and superlative defenses. They are very similar teams that are equal in strength, and there is no reason to think one of them will fail to show up on February 6. There are probably guys out there who know about match-ups and game plans and other intangible nuances of football prognostication, and maybe they can identify a clear favorite here, but I can't. If they played this game ten times, my best guess is that each team would win five of them. That's what the numbers tell me. It's a toss-up.

The sane gambler passes a game like this, but of course, it's the Superbowl, so passing the game is not really an option, no matter how sane you are (or think you are). Therefore, I'm taking the Steelers simply because they are getting 2 ½ points in Vegas and they are not worse than the Packers.

Don't bet the house.

Copyright2011MichaelKubacki

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