2011 NFL UPDATE

Seattle @ Chicago (-10)

So let me get this straight. All Da Bears have to do to reach the NFC Championship game is beat Seattle? IN Chicago? Just who do you have to sleep with in the Commissioner's Office to get this kind of break?

These are the two worst teams in the NFC playoffs, but the Bears are better. Ninety days ago, however, the Seahawks visited Chicago and won the game 23 - 20. Seattle dominated the game, sacking Cutler six times, and the final score was close only because Devin Hester returned a punt for a touchdown in the closing minutes.

In short, I would not touch the 10-point line with a 10-foot hot poker. I have to pass this game, but I will be rooting for Seattle.

Green Bay @ Atlanta (-2)

On November 28, The Falcons beat the Packers 20 - 17, in Atlanta, on a field goal as time expired. I discount this result somewhat because Green Bay gained more yards in the game, beat Atlanta in various statistical categories, and was somewhat unlucky. Also, this game was played during Green Bay's mid-season fugue period, a stretch during which they lost three of four games including an ugly mess (7 - 3) in Detroit. I think Green Bay had the flu or something. They're better now.

Green Bay's passing offense is one yard better (per pass) than Atlanta's, and Green Bay's pass defense is one yard better, per pass, than Atlanta's defense. These are big margins, so I want the Packers. They should win outright.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-3)

Two good teams, and they split their games during the season. However, if I believe my numbers (and I do), Pittsburgh's edge here is about the same as Green Bay's edge over Atlanta. The Steelers are better than the Ravens, by a meaningful margin, on both sides of the ball. I have to lay the points.

NYJ @ New England (-8 1/2)

Long before the Jets were embarrassed in New England on December 6 (final score: 45 -3), they actually beat the Patriots in Week 2 of the season. (Ever notice that the NFL uses Roman numerals for Superbowls but standard Arabic ones for the Weeks? Why? And did Andy Rooney beat me to this observation?)

But I don't care what happened in September. Plus, I hate the Jets, I find Rex Ryan almost transcendentally annoying, and I never liked Rex Ryan's daddy either. More importantly, the Patriots have the best passing game in the NFL (by far), and the Jets have the worst pass attack in the AFC.

The line is large, but I'm laying it. If Brady is knocked cold on the first play of the game, I suppose anything could happen. Otherwise, this game should be over by the 3rd quarter.


Copyright2011Michael Kubacki