THE 2011 NFL PLAYOFFS

As you should know by now, my predictions for the NFL playoffs are based on the one factor that has been most reliable in predicting NFL playoff results in the past, which is yards per pass (with an adjustment for interceptions thrown, a huge negative). You may like a team with an effective running game, but it doesn't matter much in the playoffs. Neither does defense, largely because all the real contenders for the ring will have a decent defense and there won't be much of an advantage for anybody. The difference between Tom Brady and Mark Sanchez, on the other hand---well, it's big. It's really big. It matters.

Normally, I have three categories of teams-- the Contenders, the Could-Get-Lucky's, and the Pretenders. This year, I think there has to be a fourth division, occupied solely by the New England Patriots. In this greatest year of Tom Brady's put-him-in-the-hall-of-fame-without-even-checking-his-driver's-license career, it is unlikely that anyone can beat them. Much like the 2009 Yankees, the Patriots this year are one of the truly great teams in the history of their sport.

The other Contenders are Pittsburgh and Green Bay, either of whom, in a normal sort of year, could win it all. Pittsburgh's problem, of course, is that the AFC Championship game will be played in New England. Green Bay's is that they will have to win all their games on the road. However, New England, Pittsburgh and Green Bay (in that order) have the best yards/pass numbers in the league by a substantial margin. In addition, Pittsburgh and Green Bay have the two best defenses and have given up the fewest points over the season. These are very good teams.

On the Could-Get-Lucky list, there are three squads:

Philly. Based on the numbers, Philly might be the second-best team in the NFC. The bad news is that they have to play the first-best team right out of the box. The good news is that they get to do it in Philly. I am calling this wild-card game for the Packers, but it is entirely possible that the dog-torturer and his various Seans will do something magical and actually prevail. If so, they can win the NFC Championship.

Atlanta. Quick! Who's Atlanta's quarterback? In fact, his name is Matt Ryan, and while he is having as good a season as somebody like Matt Ryan can ever have, it's not good enough to win a Superbowl in a world that contains people named Brady and Manning and Rodgers and Brees and Vick. The good news is that Atlanta only has to win two games to get to the BIG ONE, and both those games will be in Atlanta. It's possible.

Baltimore. Another very good team with a bruising defense and an efficient offense. They will beat Kansas City easily but then they will probably have to go to Pittsburgh, where they won by three earlier in the year (they later lost by three to Pittsburgh in Baltimore). You will have to like the Steelers in that game, but the Ravens are not nothing.

The Pretenders this year are half the field, and some of the names may surprise you:

Seattle. Will get toasted in the first round, of course. The Seahawks were outscored by six points per game this year.

Kansas City. The best running game in the NFL this year. Goodbye, Kansas City.

Indy. They are still capable of beating anyone, but let's face it, it's not Peyton's year. He still racks up the yards (4700 this year), but there's nothing else on offense and the defense is thin. They might beat the Jets in the wild card, but that will be the end.

Jets. In yards/pass, they are 11th out of 12, and their pass defense is nowhere near as good as you think it is. This is a team that will have to ditch Sanchez and do substantial rebuilding before it can challenge for the Championship.

New Orleans. This is still a really, really good team, but Drew Brees (25 interceptions) is having the worst year he will ever have. It was never a great defensive team, and it still isn't, so without Brees clicking the way he is capable of doing, they have no shot.

Chicago. When I drilled down and looked at this team, I was surprised by how thin they are. Though they won eleven games (but lost at home to both Seattle and Washington), they show the worst yards/pass numbers of any team in the tournament. What tends to happen to teams like this in the playoffs is that they are eventually confronted with a situation where they MUST score, and they are unable to. Shortly thereafter, the players start calling for tee times.

WILD CARD ADVICE:

New Orleans -8 @ Seattle PASS

Jets @ Indy -3 PASS

Baltimore -2.5 @ K.C. TAKE BALTIMORE

Green Bay @ Philly -2.5 TAKE GREEN BAY

Copyright2011MichaelKubacki