Saturday, February 1, 2025

Trump 2.0---Birthright Citizenship

 

         Trump wants to get things done.  This sometimes means that he proceeds with policy that may be challenged under existing law, or under the US Constitution.  If he thinks his policy is a good one, his attitude often betrays a willingness to fight the legal battles in the hope that his lawyers can beat their lawyers.  Biden and Obama and G.W. Bush all did this as well, and they did not appear to believe they had any responsibility to decide for themselves whether a course of action was legal or constitutional.


        Occasionally, they admitted they didn’t have the constitutional power to pursue an action, but then would try to implement it anyway.  One example: Biden’s “forgiveness” of student debt.  Another: Bush signed the McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill even though he said he thought it was unconstitutional.  At the time, there were commentators who believed this was an impeachable offense.

 

         This is a change.  Presidents used to believe they had an independent duty to “preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States.”   It is, after all, a commitment they make in the oath of office they take upon their inauguration.  Thus, they would restrain themselves from taking actions if they felt they were overstepping their legal bounds.  No more. 

 

*

 

         Trump’s first showdown issue, one that is already in the courts, is his attempt to end birthright citizenship, the largely-accepted doctrine that a baby born on U.S. soil is an American citizen regardless of the immigration status of the baby’s parents.  He is trying to do this by means of an executive order.

 

         The relevant provision of the U.S. Constitution is found in Section 1 of the 14th Amendment, which states: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

 

         Passed in 1865, the primary purpose of this Amendment was to make clear that former slaves were now citizens of the U.S.  It effectively overruled the Dred Scott decision, which had said they were not.

 

         The key phrase here is “subject to the jurisdiction thereof.”  Since an Executive Order cannot overrule or ignore a Constitutional Amendment, Trump’s argument is that he is merely interpreting the phrase (in a way that no one has interpreted it before).  He is claiming that a baby of illegal immigrants is “not subject to the jurisdiction” of the United States, so that baby is not a citizen.

 

         Since 1865, the phrase has been interpreted to mean that a baby born in the U.S. to a foreign diplomat does not thereby become a U.S. citizen.  Because of diplomatic immunity, the diplomat is mostly not subject to the jurisdiction of U.S. authorities, and his family is also viewed as immune.

 

         Native Americans were the other category of people deemed not “subject to the jurisdiction” of the U.S. because they were regarded as citizens of their various tribal nations and subject to the jurisdiction of tribal courts.  They became citizens through an act of Congress passed in 1924, but most were not U.S. citizens prior to that time.

 

         But every other baby became a citizen instantly.  Over the years, various courts have had to interpret the language of the 14th Amendment and have uniformly viewed children born on U.S. soil to be citizens from birth.  The primary authority on this point is an opinion of the Supreme Court in U.S. v. Wong Kim Ark, 169 U.S. 649 (1898).

 

         Mr. Ark was born in San Francisco of Chinese parents who were living (“legally domiciled”) in California.  Years later, the parents returned to China to live, and some years after that, their son traveled to China to visit them.  Upon returning to San Francisco, Mr. Ark was denied admission to the country.  The case proceeded against the backdrop of the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, which excluded Chinese immigrants from entering the U.S.

 

         In a 5-4 decision, the Court ruled that, based upon the plain language of the 14th Amendment, Mr. Ark was a U.S. citizen and could not be denied entry.  He had been born in the United States and had been “subject to the jurisdiction thereof.”

 

         There are legal scholars today who distinguish the Ark decision because Mr. Ark’s parents were legally present in the U.S.  The doctrine, they argue, should not apply to children of illegal immigrants.  This distinction was not discussed in the Ark opinion, and the concept of “illegal immigrant” really did not exist in 1898, at least not as the term is used today.

 

         Some confusion arises because the word “jurisdiction” itself has several meanings.  For example, a British tourist traveling through America is subject to most of the same laws I am.  If he kills someone, he can be tried for murder, and if he causes a car accident, he may be liable for damages.  On the other hand, he doesn’t have to register for the draft or sign up for jury duty, and he can’t vote in our elections.  The fact there are different meanings of the word “jurisdiction” opens the door to confusion (or even dishonesty), about the meaning of the 14th Amendment.

 

         The argument made by those who would define birthright citizenship out of existence is that illegal immigrants who come to the U.S. and birth a baby are not subject to our jurisdiction because they are subject to the jurisdiction of, let’s say, Guatemala, and the U.S. doesn’t even know they’re here.  This may be a fair observation, but it is irrelevant because we are not interested in the citizenship of the parents, we are only interested in the citizenship of the baby.

 

         The question that is never answered by those who want to eliminate birthright citizenship is: why wouldn’t the kid be subject to the jurisdiction of the U.S. government?  Guatemala doesn’t even know he exists, but America does.  He will have a birth certificate, a social security number, and he will enroll in a school in a few years.  He will probably be claimed as a dependent on somebody’s 1040.  He will take a driving test and get a license.  He will register for the draft.  While he might be accepted as a citizen of Guatemala if he requests that status or if his parents request it on his behalf, he does not automatically or instantly become a citizen there.

 

         According to the plain meaning of the language in the 14th Amendment---“persons born…in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof….” ---the baby is a citizen.

 

         And let me tell you something about Clarence Thomas and the other conservative justices of the Supreme Court.  They like plain language.  Giving legal voice to the plain language is what “originalism” is all about.

 

         In searching for the meaning of language in the Constitution, originalists look to the original language and what it meant at the time it was used.  That is why Roe v. Wade had to be overturned, because the words “abortion” and “privacy” do not appear in the Constitution and are not even hinted at by the original language.  For similar reasons, “persons born in the United States” will be interpreted to mean what it meant in 1865, which is the same thing it means today. Its crystal-clear meaning will prevail.  Trump and his legal crew will tell you it meant “black people born in the United States” or “former slaves born in the United States,” but that is not what it says and there is no chance this Supreme Court will interpret it that way.

 

         Birthright citizenship will be upheld 9-0 by the Supreme Court.

 

Copyright2025MichaelKubacki

Thursday, January 23, 2025

2025 NFL Playoffs---CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

 

Washington @ Philadelphia (-6)

 

         Quarterback Jalen Hurts, as the saying goes, is what he is.  He is a fairly accurate passer but can’t find secondary receivers.  He also lacks the clock most QBs have in their heads that tell them when it’s time to get rid of the ball.  With a good team around him, when he is healthy, he is good enough to win a championship.  Not all Super Bowls are won by Tom Brady or Peyton Manning.

 

         Hurts also plays well within his limitations.  He has had trouble at times with fumbling and throwing interceptions, but he studies hard and changes his game and eliminates (for a while) the glaring errors that get quarterbacks benched.

 

         The problem is that his limitations have increased.  There was a concussion three weeks ago, and then a knee injury.  He will play against the Redskins on Sunday, but he will have to play as a pocket passer, and nobody fears Hurts as a pocket passer.  Washington will focus extra attention on Saquon Barkley and they will force Hurts to beat them by passing.  His play has steadily declined, and he will not be able to.

 

         This game is a test of my views on playoff football.  Philly has a half dozen star defensive players and might have the best defense in the NFL.  They also have a great offensive line and the MVP-quality Saquon Barkley.  What they do not have is a quarterback who, when the critical moment arrives, can throw the ball down the field and drive his team to the endzone.  That is the thing Super Bowl winners have, and the Eagles do not.

 

         Looking at the numbers over the course of the season, the Eagles are better.  The edge in Adjusted Yards per Pass is only 6.5 to 6.1, but the Eagles pass defense is significantly better than Washington’s, and they have outscored opponents by more than the Redskins have.  The teams split their two games this year, with Philly winning 26-18 on November 14, and Washington winning 36-33 on December 22, when Hurts left the game early with an injury.

 

         The playoffs tell a different story.

 

         Washington beat Tampa in OT, with Daniels going 24/35 for 268 yards and a 7.7 AYP.  Then there was his dominating performance in Detroit, going 22/31 for 299 yards and a 9.6 AYP.  Daniels, though he is a rookie, is only getting better as the playoffs roll on.

 

         The Eagles beat Green Bay and the Rams, but you can’t attribute any of their success to Hurts.  Against the Packers, he passed for 131 yards.  Against the Rams, he threw for 128 and took 7 sacks, one of which resulted in a safety.  The Philly wins were ALL Saquon and ALL defense.

 

         And that might happen again.   Saquon and the defense are that good.  The Iggles might win the game.

 

         But though it pains me to say it, I’m taking the other side.  The Skins have a real shot at winning outright, so you have to take the 6 points.

 

Buffalo @ Kansas City (-1.5)

 

         Buffalo beat the best team in the AFC last week, so this should be quite a bit easier.

 

         The Bills have a significant advantage over the Chiefs in every number that matters.  The largest is Buffalo’s AYP of 6.9 compared to K.C.’s 5.3.  It’s a huge edge for the Bills, and if you have watched them, you have seen the difference.  Josh Allen completes big pass plays.  Mahomes does not.

 

         Each team has an adequate pass defense, and Buffalo has outscored their opponents by almost 10 points per game while K.C. has beaten theirs by only a field goal per game.

 

         Kansas City, as #1 seed in the AFC, has played only one playoff game, in which they were dominated by the Houston Texans but somehow won 23-14.  Mahomes threw for 177 yards and K.C. had 50 yards rushing---basically a pathetic offensive performance.  Afterwards, the focus of conversation and commentary was the refereeing, which featured several practically supernatural penalty calls, all of which favored the Chiefs at critical moments.

 

         There was so much howling about the penalty calls, most of which seemed designed to protect NFL golden boy Patrick Mahomes, that the result should be yet another advantage for Buffalo.  The referees in this game will certainly be aware of the dreadful officiating last Saturday, and will be careful not to repeat it.  Buffalo can probably expect a fair shake, and might even get the better of “the breaks.”

 

         And that’s all they will need.  The Bills are better.  They should win handily.

 

Copyright2025Michael Kubacki        

Friday, January 17, 2025

2025 NFL Playoffs—DIVISION WEEK

 Houston @ KC (-8)

 

         I may have been pushing the limits a bit (for shock value), when I labeled the KC Chiefs a “pretender” this year.  They did get the first week off and they don’t have to hit the road until the Super Bowl, so they have certain advantages.  But when you start matching them up statistically against the other teams (Houston, for example), you begin to see their shortcomings.

 

         Adjusted Yards per Pass (AYP) is the most important number I look at in these analyses, and of all fourteen teams in the playoffs, there is only one team with a (slightly) worse number than the Chiefs.  Houston brings a 5.1, while KC is at 5.3.  On the other side of the ball, I noted last week that Houston may have the best pass defense in the NFL (which they demonstrated by crushing the Chargers), and it is far superior to the pass defense of the Chiefs.

 

         Yes, KC won fifteen games and Houston only ten.  And yes, KC outscored its opponents by a field goal per game while Houston did not. But this is clearly an off-year for Mahomes, whose season-long QB rating is just 93.5, a hair above Stroud’s 90. 7 for Houston.

 

         On December 21, KC beat Houston 27-19 in a game largely decided by a poor performance (two interceptions) by Stroud.  The Chiefs might beat them again, though I think Houston has a real shot at winning outright.  In any event, the eight-point line is wrong.  Take the points.

 

         Washington @ Detroit (-9)

 

          This game presents one of the more difficult tasks in handicapping, and it is a task that separates the genius handicappers from the guys like me who have a pet theory and write a couple articles per year.  There’s really no question that Detroit has a better football team than Washington does, but is it more or less than nine points better in a second-round playoff game on January 18, 2025?

 

         The ability to make such distinctions, in many sports and games, is often what separates the brilliant player from the merely good one.  In backgammon, for example, knowing that your position will win 70% of the time (as opposed to, say, 80%), is what makes you a world-class player.  In Texas Hold-Em, if you believe your hand will be a winner 65% of the time but it will actually win only 53% of the time, you will never make a final table at the WSOP.

 

         Detroit’s AYP is 7.0.  Washington’s is 6.1.  Detroit’s defensive AYP is 5.5, which is a bit better than Washington’s 5.8.  The Lions outscored their opponents by 13.1 PPG.  The Redskins outscored theirs by 5.5.  Detroit is 7-0 in blowouts this year; Washington is 4-1.

 

         I cannot translate this into a 6-point spread or a 9-point spread or a 15-point spread.  What I can say, however, is that 9 points seems like a lot to give a team that, with Jayden Daniels, can throw the ball down the field and score points.  Jared Goff, with a QB rating of 111.8, is having a career year, but Daniels rating of 100.8 is quite wonderful as well.

 

         The rational player will pass this game, but since I am not rational, I don’t have that option.  Therefore, I will take the points with the Redskins.

 

         LA Rams @ Philly (-5.5) 

 

         Fans may look at the Rams’ pounding of Minnesota and Philly’s ugly win against Green Bay as opening a door for a possible L.A. win.  I understand that view but do not share it.

 

         Stafford’s performance against the Vikings was competent but not brilliant. He was 19 for 27 for 209 yards with no interceptions for a QB rating of 72.5. The reason for L.A.’s triumph was not Stafford but the terrible performance of Sam Darnold of the Vikings, who was sacked nine times.

 

On the other side, the Eagles won and covered against the Packers.  However, Jalen Hurts, back from his concussion two weeks ago, performed so dreadfully that his receivers were organizing book club meetings on the sidelines during the game.  Philly fans are concerned because, at some point, Hurts will need to play like an NFL quarterback or the Eagles will not make it to New Orleans.  

 

But he probably will.  His QB rating for the year was 103.7, and we can expect that a simple reversion to the mean will bring him much closer to that level.  It is fair to expect he will play better this week than he did last week, which may have been his worst game of the season.

 

And if he brings something like “his game,” that will be good enough. The overall numbers for these teams tell me the Eagles are better.

 

Philly’s AYP of 6.5 beats the Rams’ 6.1---a small difference.  But Philly dominates every other category.  The Philly defensive AYP is the best in the NFC, with the Rams near the bottom of the list.  The Iggles outscored opponents by almost ten points per game while the Rams were outscored.  In blowouts, the Rams were 0-2 while the Iggles were 6-1, including a 37-20 victory over the Rams on November 25.

 

Lay the points and take those Birds.

 

Baltimore @ Buffalo (-1)

 

These are the two best teams in the AFC.  They blow out opponents regularly and they both outscore their foes by almost ten points per game.  Neither has a great pass defense, but both can do the job well enough to get to a Super Bowl.

 

What they both do extremely well is the thing that, year-after-year, puts teams in the Superbowl.  They throw the ball down the field, complete long passes, and score a lot of points. They are the only two teams in the AFC to have scored more than 500 points during the regular season.  (Only Detroit, in the NFC, has scored more.)

 

The only significant difference I see is in the quarterbacks.  Josh Allen has had a great year, with a QB rating of 101.4 (his career rating is 93.4).  Lamar Jackson, however, has truly had one of the greatest years in NFL quarterback history.  His rating of 119.6 is just not a number you see.  And these individual performances are reflected in the AYP for each team over the course of the season.  Baltimore’s is 8.0 Adjusted Yards per Pass, best in the NFL.  Buffalo, at 6.9 AYP, has the third-best number.

 

Baltimore is better, and will win this game.  It will be another bitter winter for the Buffalo Bills, a team that has had more than its share.

 

Copyright2025MichaelKubacki   

 

Saturday, January 11, 2025

2025 NFL Playoffs—WILDCARD WEEK

 

          I refer the reader to previous articles on my NFL playoff predictions for the philosophy that guides me.  In a nutshell, the teams that win the NFL playoffs are teams that can complete long passes.  The best defensive teams rarely win.  Teams with run-based offenses never win.  What you must do to win a Superbowl is throw the ball down the field.

 

           For this reason, my primary tool is a number I call AYP, or “adjusted yards per pass.”  This is the number of yards gained passing during the season divided by the number of passes thrown and adjusted downward for the number of interceptions thrown.  A very good team will have an AYP over 7 for the season.  An AYP of 6 is pretty good.  Teams with an AYP under 5 do not play games in the month of February.

 

          Since AYP can also be calculated for a team’s pass defense, I do so, mostly so I can look at the extremes: who has a really good pass defense, and who has a bad one.  I also glance at point differentials over the course of the season.

 

          Finally, I note how each playoff team did in blowouts (defined as a game decided by 11 or more points), during the season.  When one good team beats another good team with a last-second field-goal, it may mean they got lucky. But when a good team beats another NFL team by 28, it tells me something.

 

We start with the three categories of teams.

 

         I no longer define PRETENDERS as those teams who won’t win a game, because with 14 teams in the playoffs, the occasional weakling may sneak through to the second round, though they have no real shot at playing in February.  The pretenders in 2025 are the L.A. Rams, Chiefs, Texans, Steelers and Broncos.

 

         COULD GET LUCKY teams are those that have something going for them and could get to the Super Bowl with a few breaks here and there.  This year, there are five of them, largely because none of the top teams appear invincible.  These are the Buccaneers, Vikings, Redskins, Packers, and Chargers.

 

         CONTENDERS are the best of the best, and this year they include the Lions, Eagles, Bills and Ravens. All of them expect to win the Super Bowl, and they will be disappointed if they don’t at least get there. 

 

L.A. Chargers (-2.5) @ Houston

 

         The AYP numbers here are enough to dictate the result.   The Chargers, at 6.8, have one of the best numbers in the tournament while Houston (at 5.1 AYP) has the worst.  Defensive AYP for both teams is under 5.0, making them two of the better pass-defending teams in the playoffs.

 

         Houston may actually have the best pass defense in the NFL, but the playoffs tend to be about scoring rather than defending and Houston seems to be going backwards in that department.  In their last four games they have scored 20, 19, 2, and 14 points.  Over the season, they have not outscored their opponents, while the Chargers put up an additional 6 points per game against theirs.

 

         Lay the points.

 

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-10)

 

No one will pick the Steelers to win this game, so the question is whether the Ravens can cover.  I think the answer is that they can and they will.  If this were simply a matter of reviewing the teams’ numbers over the course of the season, one could be forgiven for taking the points with the Steelers.  However, the two squads are going in different directions.

 

Baltimore is the AFC favorite to get to New Orleans on February 9.  Their AYP is 8.0, best in the NFL.   (Buffalo is second in the AFC at 6.9.)  They are one of three teams that has not been blown out this year, they outscore their opponents by 9.2 points, and they have won five of their last six.  Their last four games were all blowout wins, over the Giants, Steelers, Texans and Browns.  If they have a flaw, it’s that their pass defense is only mid-range, but it has been good enough.

 

         Pittsburgh has had a fine season, their AYP numbers are respectable, and they have outscored their opponents by 2 points per game.  However, they have lost their last four games.  Three of them were blow-outs, and one of those blow-outs was a 34-17 loss to the Ravens on December 21.

 

         One reason for Pittsburgh’s decline is that injuries to T.J. Watt seem to be catching up with him.  Watt is a defensive superstar whose play has often kept the Steelers close in games where their offense might falter.  As recently as December 15, he had five solo tackles, seven overall tackles and two sacks in a game against Philadelphia.  Since then, however, he has not recorded a sack and had only two solo tackles.  Against the Bengals on January 4, Watt was completely shut out of the stat sheet.

 

         Opponents scheme against him, of course, but typically are unable to stop him entirely.  Now, it seems, they can.

 

         Take the Ravens and lay the points.

 

Denver @ Buffalo (-8.5) 

 

         Here is another where no one will pick the underdog Broncos to win outright against a superior Buffalo team that is 8-0 at home this season.  Thus, the question is: will the Bills cover?  This one is close enough that I will have to (reluctantly), take Denver.

 

         Buffalo’s AYP is 6.9, second in the AFC only to Baltimore, while Denver’s number is 5.3.  This is significant, as is the fact that the Bill’s QB is Josh Allen while Denver’s is a rookie named Bo Nix.

 

         When I consider the 8.5-point line, however, I note that Denver played close games with the Chargers twice, with KC and with Cincy.  The only real blemish was a 41-10 thumping by Baltimore on November 3.  Denver mostly does it with defense, allowing only 18.3 PPG to opponents, but they also scored 425 points, 5th best in the AFC.  (Bills were the best, with 525 points.). And in blowouts, the Broncos were 7-1 this season.  Their season record was only 10-7, but they achieved that record by beating the crap out of mid-level teams and then losing close games to the good ones.

 

         For all these reasons, one should hesitate before laying 8.5 points to the Denver Broncos.  This is not my most confident pick, and a more-sensible player might pass this game.  I’ll take the points, however.

 

Green Bay @ Philadelphia (-4.5)

 

         This is the best Eagles team I have ever seen.  It is much better than the team that won the Super Bowl, and by the end of this short essay I will persuade myself to bet them in this game.  But first let’s talk about the Packers.

 

         On September 6, Green Bay lost its first game, in Rio de Janeiro, to the Philadelphia Eagles by a score of 34-29.  Then, in their six division games against Chicago, Minnesota and Detroit, they lost five excruciatingly close games and beat Chicago 20-19 on November 17.  They beat EVERYBODY else.  They crushed Tennessee, Arizona, San Fran, Miami, Seattle, and New Orleans, and were one of only three teams that did not get blown out themselves.  (Detroit and Baltimore were the other two; KC’s only blowout was in their last game of the season, when Andy didn’t care.)

 

         The Packer AYP number is 6.8, compared to Philly’s 6.5.  (Philly’s defensive AYP was 4.3, superior to GB’s 5.0, but as I’ve only pointed out 6 million times, offense is much more important than defense in the playoffs.). Each team outscored its opponents by more than a touchdown per game.

 

         Based on all this, it would be hard to lay the points, wouldn’t it?  However, last week’s game against Chicago changes the equation.  In the second quarter of that game, Jordan Love hurt his elbow and left the game.  He is listed as “questionable” for this playoff game and he says he is “hopeful” he will play.  I don’t doubt he will play, but it seems clear he is damaged and will not be at his best.

 

         Love was replaced in the Chicago game by Malik Willis, who was drafted by Tennessee three years ago and moved to Green Bay this past season.  He may turn out to be an NFL quarterback, but in three seasons, he has thrown 75 completions in 120 attempts for 900 yards with 3 TD passes and 3 interceptions.  His career QB rating is 83.3 on a scale where the stars rate over 100 and journeyman starters usually fall in the 90 to 99 range.

 

         Perhaps even more significant was the injury to WR Christian Watson, who will not play against the Eagles.  Watson may not be the Packers top receiver, but he was clearly the only deep threat, with an average reception of 21.4 yards.

 

         These injuries leave Green Bay with an injured (or a novice) quarterback who will be unlikely to complete any long passes in a playoff game against an experienced Eagles team, at home, with all their stars on the field.

 

         There. I did it.  I persuaded myself to lay the points and bet the Eagles.

 

Washington @ Tampa Bay (-3) 

 

         The numbers here are spookily similar.  The Adjusted Yards per Pass for both Tampa and Washington is 6.1.  The defensive AYP for Tampa is 6.0; for Washington it is 5.8.  Each team has won five out of its last six, scoring about 30 PPG along the way.  Each team is 5-1 in blowouts.

 

         And speaking of blowouts, they played each other on September 8 in the first game of the season, with Tampa Bay winning 37-20.  I choose to put very little weight on that result since it was Jayden Daniels NFL debut.  Over the course of the season, he has put up a 100.1 QB rating, which is fairly wonderful for a rookie and extraordinary for a rookie on a team like the Redskins that was not expected to do much this season.

 

         The game is in Tampa and the Bucs are favored by 3.  I see no reason to bet this game, so I recommend a pass.  I am in a playoff pool and must pick every game against the spread, however, so I’m taking Tampa Bay.  Nobody will be surprised if Daniels wins himself a Super Bowl ring some year, but he is a rookie and it won’t be this year.  Baker Mayfield, on the other hand, is a guy who has paid his dues and now is a veteran quarterback with a 106.8 QB rating.

 

         If you want the action, lay the three points.  Otherwise, just sit back and enjoy what will probably be a close game.

 

Minnesota (-1.5) @ LA Rams

 

         This game has been moved to Arizona because of the fires in Los Angeles.  The line has bounced a little over the course of the week, but it has favored the Vikings by a point or two since it opened.

 

         I am surprised Minnesota is not favored by more.

 

         I think the wise guy wisdom is that the Rams started the season 1-4 and then fixed something and went 9-3 the rest of the way, so they must be hot.  Also, we cannot ignore that they beat the Vikings 30-20 on October 24.  And finally, Matthew Stafford won a Super Bowl in February 2022, so he’s qualified.

 

         Minnesota, for some reason, is not getting any respect.  They won nine games in a row before losing to Detroit in the season finale.  While they have only a small edge over the Rams in AYP, Sam Darnold has had a stand-out year with a QB rating of 102.5 while Stafford was mediocre at best (QB rating 93.7).  Stafford had the best year of his life three years ago and I see no evidence he will repeat that magic moment.  He’s not Mahomes or Brady or Peyton Manning.  He had a great year, he was surrounded by a good team, and he got a ring.  God bless him, but there’s no reason to think he’ll do it again.

 

         Minnesota has a small edge in the offensive AYP, and a clear advantage in everything else.  Their QB is better, their pass defense is much better, and they outscored their opponents by almost 6 PPG while the Rams were outscored by theirs.  The Vikings were also capable of blowing teams out (4-1 on the season) while the Rams were not (0-2).

 

         And now, for the Rams, it’s not even a home game.  Take Minnesota and lay the 1 or 2 points. 

 

Copyright2025Michael Kubacki 

 

Tuesday, December 31, 2024

2025 New Year’s Resolutions

  1. Constantly monitor all body functions and post the readings and results and                  photographs on a dedicated website. 

2.    Spend more time grooming my toenails.  Also, talk about them more often.  Ask people I meet about how they care for their toenails and what I should do about mine.

 

3.    Carry a cigarette in my pocket and, whenever I am in someone else’s house or car, put it in my mouth and ask if they mind whether I smoke.

 

4.    When the money starts rolling in from the massive tax cut for the super-rich, give 2% of my additional income to the deserving poor.

 

5.    Cut the head off a large wild animal and leave it in Central Park.

 

6.    Spend no more than 30% of my 2025 income on roofies, bourbon, lubricants, Adderall, sex toys, Viagra, and Chinese midget clown porn.

 

7.    Put on twenty pounds.

 

8.    Move my “first drink” time from 5 PM to 4:15. 

 

9.    Begin to incorporate beef tallow into my diet so that by the end of the year I am obtaining at least 20% of my calories from it.

 

10. Fast forward through all movies so I can watch twice as many.

 

Copyright2024MichaelKubacki

Sunday, November 17, 2024

WORDS AND PHRASES

           “Citywide”

 

         If you are a drinker who has spent any time in dive bars or taprooms, you are familiar with the term Boilermaker, which is a drink consisting of a shot of whiskey with a glass of beer.  Back in 1900, guys didn’t drink Cosmopolitans or Margaritas or Screaming Orgasms or Moscow Mules.  They drank beer, or wine, or maybe whiskey, or maybe all three, but drinking was not the sophisticated and complicated activity it is today.  There were no “mixologists.”

 

         Then came the Boilermaker, which was probably a precursor to the mixed drink or cocktail.  Typically, you would throw back the shot and “chase” it with the beer, but there was no obligation to do so.  You could sip them both.  You could pour the whiskey into the beer.  You could even drop the shot glass of whiskey into the (larger) glass of beer.  This was called a Depth Charge, though it’s hard to see the point of it.

 

         In Philadelphia, however, problems arose.  As I have pointed out before, we are a thoughtful, philosophical, and somewhat argumentative people.  This is where the Constitution was written, with its Bill of Rights and its Electoral College and the-three-fifths-of-a-person rule and all the other stuff that piss people off even today.  We need to talk about these things.  We need to call up talk radio shows about them.

 

         And regarding the shot-and-a-beer Boilermaker, there were obvious problems.  To wit, what was the whiskey?  And what was the beer?  Does the patron get to choose them or does the bartender?  It appears that these issues were discussed in Philadelphia taverns for approximately one hundred years, from the birth of the Boilermaker in the late 19th Century to the uniform adoption of the “Citywide” in 1994 at Bob and Barbara’s Lounge on South Street.

 

         There, as the story goes, an employee named Rick Dobrowski decreed that henceforth, a boilermaker would consist (exactly), of a shot of Jim Beam and a can of Pabst Blue Ribbon beer.  Other bars and drinkers in the City of Brotherly Love instantly fell in line behind this sensible resolution of the problem, and the Beam/PBR combo became known as the Citywide.

 

         This did not mean that variation on the Citywide ended, but it meant that variation from the Beam/PBR standard now required an explanation.

 

“We’re out of Beam so you’re getting a shot of Evan Williams (a mid-range bourbon), and we never carry Pabst, so we give you a Miller on tap.  OK?”

 

“OK by me, brother, but can you make it a Yuengling?”

 

The term Citywide is not used outside the Philadelphia area.

 

 

Wellness Modalities

 

You’ve probably heard of chiropractic medicine and Pilates and Tai Chi, and maybe even reflexology and tantric yoga and dance therapy, but have you ever heard of the Feldenkrais Method or Qigong or Tuina?

 

Well, all these things and about a thousand more therapies and belief systems and healing philosophies and quasi-religious health-related disciplines are all referred to as “wellness modalities,” a term I first ran into about a week ago.  You probably can’t find them all in Fargo, but if you reside in a heavily-populated area, you can google any of them and find a practitioner who will treat you or teach you or lay hands on you in exchange for some of your money.  There are even gatherings that take place in convention centers and the sorts of places where, on a different weekend, a gun show might be held.  For an admission fee of ten bucks, you can go in and learn all about them from all their various practitioners and gurus and scientists and quacks.

 

Some are hands-on, like Bowen Therapy, where the Bowenist massages your fascia (the soft connective tissue) in your body so you can move better.  There are a lot of “movement” regimens where somebody moves you around or just tells you how to move around, but all of them make you happier or reduce your pain or improve your posture or something.  And a lot of them are named after the person who came up with the thing.  The Feldenkrais Method, for example, was invented by a guy name Feldenkrais.  Another one is the Alexander Technique, which was developed by Frederick Matthias Alexander.  (I always thought Frederick Matthias Alexander was the guy who shot President McKinley, but I guess he wasn’t.  Still, with a triple-barreled name like Frederick Matthias Alexander, it’s an understandable mistake.)

 

My favorites are the modalities that seem absurdly labor-intensive, and perhaps arose out a desire to give 9-year-olds something to do in summer camp that might occupy them while the counselors snuck behind a cabin for a smoke.  These often have a deep spiritual or philosophical underpinning to explain the purpose of them, with lots of talk about energy reflections and emanations and penumbras and crap like that.

 

“Flower Essence Extraction” is one such.  Flower essences, you see, are believed to “contain the vibrational energy of flowers that can improve negative thoughts and emotions” and “assist in soul development and mind-body health.” 

 

“The fresh, dew-filled blossoms are gathered in the early morning of a clear, sunny day.  Floating on the surface of a bowl of water, they are irradiated by the warmth and light of the sun for several hours.  This process creates an energetic imprint of the etheric energy pattern of the flower in the water, embodying the healing archetype of that plant.  This mother essence is preserved with organic grape alcohol and then further diluted and potentized to form the stock which is sold in stores and to practitioners.”

 

The human subject then (orally), takes four drops from an eyedropper four times a day.

 

Seems harmless enough.

 

 

 

Porta-Potties

 

For some reason which I have now forgotten, I thought there would be a lot of porta-potty companies around the country and the world and that some of them would have very amusing names.  So I looked them up.

 

I was somewhat disappointed.  Yes, there were a few funny ones but most were simple poop and pee jokes with little ingenuity to them, and they didn’t make me laugh out loud.

 

To save you the trouble of doing the same research I did, here are the best of the lot:

 

Crappuccino

 

Johnny-On-The-Spot

 

John’s Johns

 

Luxury Loos

 

Piddle Palace

 

Poop Deck

 

Poop Parlor

 

Poopatorium

 

Porcelain Palace

 

Porta-Poo

 

Royal Flush

 

Slop Shack

 

Sweet Pea Toilets

 

Swirly Sanctuary

 

Throne Room

 

Urinal Express

 

And here are a few that I (and friends), came up with:

 

         Dump This!

 

         Oh Pooh!

 

         Sir Craps-A-Lot

 

         The House At Poo Corner

 

         Two Pees in a Pod

 

         Urine the Right Place


Copyright2024MichaelKubacki