2025 NFL Playoffs---CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

 

Washington @ Philadelphia (-6)

 

         Quarterback Jalen Hurts, as the saying goes, is what he is.  He is a fairly accurate passer but can’t find secondary receivers.  He also lacks the clock most QBs have in their heads that tell them when it’s time to get rid of the ball.  With a good team around him, when he is healthy, he is good enough to win a championship.  Not all Super Bowls are won by Tom Brady or Peyton Manning.

 

         Hurts also plays well within his limitations.  He has had trouble at times with fumbling and throwing interceptions, but he studies hard and changes his game and eliminates (for a while) the glaring errors that get quarterbacks benched.

 

         The problem is that his limitations have increased.  There was a concussion three weeks ago, and then a knee injury.  He will play against the Redskins on Sunday, but he will have to play as a pocket passer, and nobody fears Hurts as a pocket passer.  Washington will focus extra attention on Saquon Barkley and they will force Hurts to beat them by passing.  His play has steadily declined, and he will not be able to.

 

         This game is a test of my views on playoff football.  Philly has a half dozen star defensive players and might have the best defense in the NFL.  They also have a great offensive line and the MVP-quality Saquon Barkley.  What they do not have is a quarterback who, when the critical moment arrives, can throw the ball down the field and drive his team to the endzone.  That is the thing Super Bowl winners have, and the Eagles do not.

 

         Looking at the numbers over the course of the season, the Eagles are better.  The edge in Adjusted Yards per Pass is only 6.5 to 6.1, but the Eagles pass defense is significantly better than Washington’s, and they have outscored opponents by more than the Redskins have.  The teams split their two games this year, with Philly winning 26-18 on November 14, and Washington winning 36-33 on December 22, when Hurts left the game early with an injury.

 

         The playoffs tell a different story.

 

         Washington beat Tampa in OT, with Daniels going 24/35 for 268 yards and a 7.7 AYP.  Then there was his dominating performance in Detroit, going 22/31 for 299 yards and a 9.6 AYP.  Daniels, though he is a rookie, is only getting better as the playoffs roll on.

 

         The Eagles beat Green Bay and the Rams, but you can’t attribute any of their success to Hurts.  Against the Packers, he passed for 131 yards.  Against the Rams, he threw for 128 and took 7 sacks, one of which resulted in a safety.  The Philly wins were ALL Saquon and ALL defense.

 

         And that might happen again.   Saquon and the defense are that good.  The Iggles might win the game.

 

         But though it pains me to say it, I’m taking the other side.  The Skins have a real shot at winning outright, so you have to take the 6 points.

 

Buffalo @ Kansas City (-1.5)

 

         Buffalo beat the best team in the AFC last week, so this should be quite a bit easier.

 

         The Bills have a significant advantage over the Chiefs in every number that matters.  The largest is Buffalo’s AYP of 6.9 compared to K.C.’s 5.3.  It’s a huge edge for the Bills, and if you have watched them, you have seen the difference.  Josh Allen completes big pass plays.  Mahomes does not.

 

         Each team has an adequate pass defense, and Buffalo has outscored their opponents by almost 10 points per game while K.C. has beaten theirs by only a field goal per game.

 

         Kansas City, as #1 seed in the AFC, has played only one playoff game, in which they were dominated by the Houston Texans but somehow won 23-14.  Mahomes threw for 177 yards and K.C. had 50 yards rushing---basically a pathetic offensive performance.  Afterwards, the focus of conversation and commentary was the refereeing, which featured several practically supernatural penalty calls, all of which favored the Chiefs at critical moments.

 

         There was so much howling about the penalty calls, most of which seemed designed to protect NFL golden boy Patrick Mahomes, that the result should be yet another advantage for Buffalo.  The referees in this game will certainly be aware of the dreadful officiating last Saturday, and will be careful not to repeat it.  Buffalo can probably expect a fair shake, and might even get the better of “the breaks.”

 

         And that’s all they will need.  The Bills are better.  They should win handily.

 

Copyright2025Michael Kubacki