I was 2-4 in Wildcard Week, and I was fundamentally wrong about all the games except the first and the last, so now I’m due for a comeback, right? Right?
Houston @ Baltimore (-9.5)
Houston’s first game of the 2023 season was C.J. Stroud’s NFL debut, a 25-9 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. He went 28/44 for 242 yards with no interceptions. It was not a terrible performance. Throughout the season, he didn’t have many bad performances. The worst was in a 30-6 loss to the stinkin’ Jets on December 10, where he went 10/23 for 91 yards (but with no interceptions). Even though he was a rookie, the worst you ever got from him was mediocrity. And the best you got from him was brilliant. Stroud played close to a perfect game against the Browns this week: 16/21 for 274 yards and no interceptions. His AYP for that game was 13.0.
Baltimore is better, of course. Lamar Jackson’s possible MVP season has laid to rest the idea that he was an entertaining sideshow but not really a top-level NFL QB. It has taken a while, but his AYP of 7.1 is right up there with Tua (and Stroud). The Ravens had the NFL’s best record, an 8-0 record in blow-outs, and outscored their opponents by 11.9 points per game. Baltimore also showed the 2nd best defensive AYP (behind only Cleveland).
One must expect the Ravens to win this game, and probably their next one as well, but Houston with Stroud as QB has matured as a team and will remain competitive throughout the game. Stroud has thrown only five interceptions all year and he doesn’t make the kind of “rookie mistakes” that rookies make, so I don’t envision the sort of melt-down that turns into a blow-out. I’m taking Houston with the points.
Green Bay @ San Francisco (-10)
The standard wisdom among the NFL brainiac commentariat is that Green Bay’s Thanksgiving Day victory over Detroit changed their entire season and perhaps ripped apart the very matrix itself. They’re different now. Jordan Love has come into his own, the lark is on the wing and the snail is on the thorn. Or something.
I dunno.
First, I don’t think you can call the Packer victory on Thanksgiving a dominant performance. They were outgained 464 yards to 377 and seemed to get every break they needed. Detroit went 0-fer on their 4th down tries, Goff fumbled three times (one of which was run back for a TD), and the Lions seemed to be out of sync all day. It was also their 7th consecutive loss on Thanksgiving Day, whatever that means.
And it’s not like the Pack rolled through the rest of their schedule. Two weeks later they lost to the NY Giants and the week after that to Tampa Bay. Then on Christmas Eve, the Pack eked out a win over the 2-13 Panthers in a game where Carolina gained more yards. Then admittedly, they played well against Minnesota and Chicago. Then came the Cowgirls.
I picked the Girls in that game. I was all over the Girls. I thought they would win by 30. And when I look at it now, my only thought is: “Well, why didn’t they win by thirty???” There is a saying at the racetrack: “Sometimes you handicap it right and they just run it wrong.” And that’s what I’m sticking with here. The Cowboys collapsed because they are morally corrupt, because they are owned by Jerry Jones, and because no matter how well Dak “Don’t Call Me Dakota” Prescott plays during the season, he will always be a mutt.
The Packers played well. Jordan Love played well, and God bless him. But I still don’t think the Packers belong here.
Looking at my numbers, I don’t remember ever seeing a mismatch like this in a playoff game. SF’s AYP is 8.1; the Packer’s is 6.3. The defensive AYP for San Fran is a full two yards better than Green Bay’s. The 49ers outscored their opponents by 11.3 points while the Packers barely outscored their opponents at all. Green Bay had three blowout wins and three blowout losses, while the 49ers had 11 blowout wins, most in the league.
I also think there is a revenge play at work here, though it doesn’t involve the Packers.
Last year, San Francisco came to Philadelphia for the NFC Championship game and though the Eagles were favored slightly, I don’t think there is any doubt the 49ers thought they were the best team in the NFC and were going to the Superbowl.
Then they got mugged. Brock Purdy got his elbow twisted in the first half and then the Eagles delivered a concussion to his backup. Maybe the Eagles were better and maybe they weren’t, but San Francisco left Philly believing they had been jobbed, and I expect they still feel bitter about it. So not only are they good, I think they’re angry too.
San Francisco will win this game and register its 12th blowout of the season. Lay the points.
Tampa Bay @ Detroit (-6.5)
Neither one of these teams is great, but one of them will be playing in the NFC Championship Game. And I don’t know which it will be.
Their numbers are similar, down the line. Detroit’s AYP is 6.6 and Tampa’s is 6.2. Defensive AYP is identical. Neither outscored their opponent by much and Detroit blew out six opponents versus Tampa’s four.
Detroit scored 461 points during the season and Tampa scored 348, and as a guy who likes offense in playoff games, I guess that strikes me as a meaningful difference.
This line strikes me as accurate, and the sensible gambler passes the game. I’ll take Detroit and lay the points, but my confidence level on this one is zero.
Kansas City @ Buffalo (-2.5)
The December 10 matchup between these two was played at Arrowhead, and the Bills escaped with a 20-17 win when Kansas City’s winning TD in the final minute was called back for an offside penalty. The game was close throughout with neither team clearly dominant.
Buffalo is a wee bit better in all the categories I look at: a larger point differential, more blowouts, a better AYP and a better pass defense. Neither Mahomes nor Allen are near the top of the QB list this year but that doesn’t mean they can’t win a big playoff game.
The line reflects a little too much respect for KC and Andy Reid and being the defending Superbowl champion and having more players with lucrative commercial deals than Buffalo does. And maybe Taylor Swift knocks the line down a half-point as well.
The game’s in Buffalo and the Bills are slightly superior, so I think the line should be more than 2.5. I’m laying those points.
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Love the writeups as always!! One day I will find a way to take this website and upload to pdf and get printed into to book form. Someone will then allow me to put it on a shelf in their library. Conrad will of course get a copy!
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