2024 NFL PLAYOFFS—Conference Championships

          My record so far is 3 – 7, so I assume anyone here for my selections this weekend wants to know who I like so they can take the other side.

 

Kansas City @ Baltimore (-4)

 

         The line reflects a respect for KC, Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Andy Reid that they simply do not deserve.   They won the Superbowl last year---I get it.  Mahomes will be in the HOF---I get that too.  But this has not been a good year for Kansas City, and they are only the fifth or sixth best team in the AFC.

 

         Baltimore dominates KC in all the categories I care about.  They have many more big plays, they throw the ball down the field, they outscore their opponents by almost 12 points per game and they blew out eight teams in the regular season.  They also have the best defense in the league and gave up fewer than 17 points per game.

 

         This game should not be close.  Take the Ravens and lay the points. 

 

 Detroit @ San Francisco (7.5)

 

         Just as Baltimore statistically dominates the first game, San Francisco’s season-long numbers far exceed Detroit’s.  The 49er AYP was 8.1 vs. Detroit’s 6.6, and Purdy was by far the best QB in the NFL.  The SF defensive AYP is also much better than Detroit’s, and eleven of their games were laughers.

 

         So why am I hesitating to lay the points here?

 

         It’s the Green Bay game last week.  The 49ers, against an improving (but far-from-great) Packer team, led 7-6 at the half, trailed 21-14 as the 4^th quarter began, and won the game 24-21. Purdy went 23/39 for 252 yards with no ints, so he didn’t suck.  Nevertheless, this was not the performance of a team that crushed opponents all season long and should have crushed Green Bay.  San Fran’s victory must concern everyone who expected, as I did, that SF would roll into Vegas for the Superbowl this year and might even win it.  The Ravens beat the Texans (another up-and-comer) 34-10 earlier in the day.  Why didn’t the 49ers turn in a similar performance?

 

         I would pass this game, but my gig here requires me to pick one.  I’ll take Detroit plus the 7.5 because I don’t quite trust San Fran anymore.

 

Copyright2024MichaelKubacki