My record for the wildcard games was 3 –1. Won with Jacksonville, Miami and the Boyz; lost with Cincy. I passed on the Seattle - SF game and the Giants – Minnesota game.
Last
year, all the Division Week games were decided with last-second field goals or
in OT. I don’t expect that will happen
in 2023. I see at least two mismatches.
Jacksonville
@ KC (-10)
As an Eagles fan,
I will always love J’ville coach Doug Pederson.
I also find KC coach Andy Reid (and the widespread reverence for him), intensely
annoying. I loved Jacksonville’s
preposterous comeback win over the Chargers last week and I would love to see
Dougie go into KC and beat the Chiefs.
But let’s
get real.
In the
AFC, KC’s 7.1 AYP is the best by a wide margin, while the Jaguars’ 6.3 AYP is a
distant 5th among the playoff teams.
K.C’s defensive AYP is also
better than that of the Jags.
In
addition, while Trevor Lawrence must get some credit for the Jaguars comeback, his
wildcard game was objectively the worst of any QB in Wildcard Weekend, and that
includes Tom Brady and Skylar Thompson. The
guy threw four picks. He may indeed wind
up with three or four Superbowl rings before he’s done, but he won’t get one
this year, and this Saturday will be his last game of the season.
However,
when evaluating KC, one must always remember that Andy Reid’s history is not
primarily one of success. Rather, it is marked
by those numerous occasions when his heavily-favored team comes into a critical
contest appearing totally unprepared and clueless. Andy’s story is a tale of losing the big one,
and that is always a possibility.
Considering
Reid’s uneven record, and considering that Jacksonville has only been blown out
once this year, I cannot feel confident about laying 10 points with the
Chiefs. I expect them to win, but I won’t
bet this game.
NYG
@ Philly (-7.5)
Daniel Jones had a
very nice game against the mediocre Vikings.
Two touchdowns, no picks, 301 yards on 24/35 passing, and an AYP (in the
one game) of 8.6. That’s not really who
he is, of course, and against a Philly pass defense that is the best in the tournament,
one must expect Danny’s performance will revert to the mean, or below the mean.
Philadelphia
has the best AYP in the tournament and the best defensive AYP in the
tournament. That is not to say they are
a lock against San Fran or the Chiefs or the Bills, but they are a lock against
the Giants, whom they have already beaten twice---48-22 on December 11, and
22-16 on January 8. The second victory
was not as close as it may appear. The
Giants scored 3 points in the first three quarters, then put up another 13 in
garbage time.
Lay the
points. Da Iggles will cover.
Cincinnati
@ Buffalo (-5.5)
Gee, I wonder if Damar
Hamlin will be there.
Neither
of these teams especially distinguished themselves last week, and both must
consider themselves lucky to be here.
Both QBs put up a 6.5 AYP last week, and that is nothing special. Over the course of the season, Burrows had a
better QB rating than Josh Allen---100.8 to 96.6. His AYP was also slightly better. The Bills would appear to have a better pass
defense, though that was not terribly apparent last week against Miami’s
third-string quarterback.
I’m
just not seeing the essential wonderfulness of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills
this year. What I do see is a Bengals
team that may appear to get lucky sometimes, but they have now won nine in a
row, four of which were blowouts.
I don’t
know who will win this, but I’m taking Cincy with the points.
Dallas
@ San Francisco (-3.5)
This is
the other mismatch. San Francisco will
win this by as much as they want to.
Dak
Prescott had a good game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which was the worst
team in the playoffs this year. He went
25/33 for 305 yards with no interceptions.
It may have been his best game in a mediocre year where he finished 16th
in QB rating.
But
Brock Purdy’s win against Seattle was supernatural. He committed no mistakes en route to an 18/30
day with 342 yards and no INTs. This
amounts to an 11.6 AYP, the best game of any quarterback in the six games of
Wildcard Week.
The
49ers are superior to the Boyz in every other meaningful category as well. Take San Francisco and lay the points.
Copyright2023MichaelKubacki
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