My record this week was 3 – 0, with wins by the Iggles, Cincy and the 49ers. I passed on the Jacksonville – KC game. I’m now 6 – 1.
Both
conference championship games are home games for the #1 seeds in each
conference---Philly in the NFC and KC in the AFC. Since the spreads on these games are very
small, we are basically looking for the teams that will win and advance to the
Superbowl. I will be on the Eagles and
the Chiefs.
San Francisco @ Philadelphia (-2.5)
The 49ers looked
better and better as the season progressed, winning the last ten regular-season
games and now two more in the playoffs. Brock
Purdy at QB is a sort-of seven-day wonder who posts one great passing
performance after another, and never seems to make a mistake.
The
Eagles, on the other hand, dominated the NFL for the first fourteen weeks and
then, when QB Jalen Hurts injured his shoulder, suddenly became vulnerable and
lost two games (to Dallas and New Orleans).
Hurts returned for the last game of the regular season, beating the
indifferent Giants to clinch the top seed in the NFC, but he did not look to be
100%. Heading into the Division Week
match-up against those same Giants, it was reasonable to wonder whether Hurts
would be at his best, and whether the Iggles were still the best team in the
NFL.
Hurts
was at his best and so were the Birds.
New York had just won their Wildcard game, on the road, easily defeating
Minnesota, and they were confident in their chances coming into
Philadelphia. And they were COMPLETELY
DOMINATED in every aspect of the game.
The
last three minutes of the first half looked like garbage time, and the score at
intermission was 28 – 0. The final was
38 – 7.
In
other words, the Eagles (and Hurts) are back, and they are once again the best
team in the NFL. In fact, they look
better than before.
Philly
had the best AYP in the league this year at 7.3, slightly better than San Fran’s
7.0. Also, Philly’s defensive AYP was also the best in the league (4.0), and was
significantly better than San Francisco’s 4.7.
Philly
has superior numbers to San Francisco, they are healthy, and they are playing
in South Philadelphia. The line should
be much larger than 2.5.
Lay the
points and take the Eagles.
Cincinnati
@ Kansas City (Pick ‘em)
This story is much
the same as in the NFC. The top seed is
playing at home, has a better record, and boasts better AYP numbers than the
challenger. The disparity is even
greater here, with KC’s AYP of 7.1 versus Cincy’s 6.4. In the NFL stats, Mahones had the second-best
QB rating at 105.2, while Burrow’s 100.8 was 6th. The Chief’s defensive AYP is also a hair
better than that of the Bungles.
Of
course, the question hanging over this game has been: “Is Mahomes really
Mahomes?” We have known he will play,
but will his recent high-ankle sprain limit his effectiveness?
We can’t
be sure about that, of course, but the reports are that the injury is less
severe than feared and that he is practicing well. It is still possible that his ability to scramble
will be compromised or that he will limit his efforts in that dimension out of
simple prudence. But I don’t really care
about that. I’m relying on his ability
to throw the ball down the field because that’s what wins in the playoffs, so
if he stays in the pocket all day, that would be fine with me.
Cincinnati
has had a great run, and nobody would be surprised by a Bengals win. (They already beat the Chiefs once, by a
field goal, on December 4.) They won
their last eight regular season-games and two playoff games---an extremely lucky victory over the Ravens
and a dominating win over the Bills. But
the Chiefs, over the course of the season, have been better.
Take
KC, and be grateful you don’t have to lay any points.
Copyright2023MichaelKubacki
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment