NFL Playoffs 2019---Division Week

I went 2-1 last weekend, with a miracle push in the Dallas-Seattle game.  I got Indianapolis completely wrong.

Indy @ KC -5

At 7.5 adjusted yards/pass, the Chiefs boast the best number in the field, and Indy’s 5.8 is among the worst.  This kind of difference would normally suggest a romp for KC and I would lay the points.

I have reservations, however.  First off, Indianapolis came into the tournament on a roll and basically CRUSHED a decent Houston squad.  I was impressed.  Since Andrew Luck was drafted (in 1968), everyone in football land has been certain that he would someday 1) grow up, 2) get healthy, 3) finally find himself surrounded by a team that could perform football-related tasks in a competent manner, and 4) win seven or eight Superbowls.  Has it actually happened, now that we all finally gave up on him?

Second, while the defensive yards/pass figures for KC and Indy are the same, the Colts defense has gotten a LOT better as the season progressed.  KC has been outscoring everybody while giving up about 26 points per game. Indianapolis was also allowing opponents 26 points/game for the first half of the season, but then tuned up the D and permitted only 16 ½ points over the last eight games.  This is the best scoring defense number over the second half for any team in the tourney.

And then there’s Andy, of course.  Despite all his disciples in the NFL coaching fraternity (who are rather tediously listed during every national broadcast of a KC game), the tale of Andy Reid has one recurring theme---losing the big one.  And while his QB, Mahomes, is the most entertaining player in the league, and while the Kansas City Chiefs have the best yards/pass numbers this year and should be the favorite to win it all, I just don’t believe it. Andy always finds a way to lose a critical game he should win by two touchdowns, and I fear this matchup might be the one.

Even beyond Andy himself, the franchise is cursed.  The last time the Chiefs won a home playoff game was a wee bit over twenty-five years ago, on January 8, 1994, when they squeaked by the Steelers 27-24 in OT.  Since then, KC has gone 1-10, its only triumph a wildcard victory in Houston on January 9, 2016.  Four of the ten losses have come in this exact situation, with the Chiefs earning a bye and then losing their first home game in Division Week.

Can’t bet this game.   KC is the best team out there, and Mahomes, if he stays healthy, will break records as a QB.  But I pass.

Dallas @ Rams -7

This one is quite a bit easier.  The Rams dominate the Cowgirls in yards/pass and defensive yards/pass.  They have outscored opponents by nine points per game, compared to Dallas’s one point per game.  Like KC, the Rams outscore everybody, and they will do so here.  Lay the points.

Chargers @ New England -4

I make this game a pick ‘em, so I’m taking the Chargers with the points.  I know the Patriots don’t lose much in January in Foxborough, and I know Brady is probably pissed off about last year, and I know the Pats had the bye week leading into this home game.

Still, the Chargers are half a yard better in adjusted yards/pass, and the teams are comparable in defensive yards/pass.  It was hard to like the Chargers’s win over Baltimore, a game they totally dominated and should have won by 30, but actually won by 6.  I don’t know much about Chargers coach Anthony Lynn, but I have to think his strangely passive strategy against the Ravens will not be repeated in Massachusetts this week.  Assuming he has learned his lesson, I’m taking the Bolts (and the points), in what I expect will be a close game.

Philly @ New Orleans -8

Yards/pass numbers here are comparable to those in the Rams-Dallas matchup, though you only get a TD with the Girls and you get a bit more with the Iggles.  For those of you hung up on reason and logic and Western Civilization, I suggest you pass this game because it will probably be won by the Saints, but it will be a lot closer than the 48-7 pasting delivered by the Saints to the Eagles on November 18.  The Saints, by any measure, are better.  Are they 6 points better?  Ten points better?  I dunno.

For those of you who now believe in magic elf Nick Foles, however, please join me in betting the Eagles to win outright in some outlandish fashion that none of us dare imagine.

Copyright2019MichaelKubacki