NFL PLAYOFFS---2019 Conference Championships

Rams @ New Orleans -3.5

          Looking at the yard/pass numbers, these are clearly the two best teams in the NFC.  The Saints have a small edge in offensive yards/pass and the Rams have a small edge in defensive yards/pass.  The Saints outscored their opponents by 9.4 points per game, while the Rams outscored their opponents by 8.9.  Based simply on these metrics, New Orleans deserves a small edge and that’s exactly what the line says: 3 ½ points.  Based on the season-long numbers, I would pass.

          However, the defenses of these two teams are going in opposite directions.  For the first 8 games of the season, the Saints gave up 27 points per game; for the last 8, that number is 17ppg.  The comparable numbers for the Rams are 23 ppg in the first 8, and 29 ½ ppg in the final 8.  The Saints, in other words, have gotten quite a bit better as the season progressed and the Rams have gotten quite a bit worse.

          For me, that’s enough to tip the scale.  I’m taking the Saints and laying the points.

Pats @ KC -3

          In the AFC game, KC has the largest adjusted yards/pass number in the tournament at 7.5, while NE is a full yard behind.  KC is second only to New Orleans in outscoring opponents---9 points per game versus New England’s 7 points per game.  In addition, KC has never been “blown out” (beaten by at least nine points), this season, while the Patriots have been blown out three times.  New England’s defense has been better than the Chiefs’ most of the year, but KC completely shut down an Indianapolis offense that many analysts thought would put some serious points on the board.

          In short, my metrics suggest that KC should cover this three-point spread.

          On the other hand….

          Since the 1970 merger of the NFL and the AFL, the Patriots have played in 14 AFC Championship games and have won ten of them.  This will be the eighth year in a row they are playing in this game.  By contrast, in those fifty years, KC has made it to ONE AFC Championship game, which it lost.  I know the players were different, I know the coaches were different, I know everything was different, but still….

          And then there’s Tom Brady, of course, who is still pissed off about losing last year.  And then there’s Andy Reid, the Jacques Who of football coaches, who always wins ten or twelve games a season but can never win the big one.  How many times have we seen that goofy, befuddled, fourth-quarter look on his puss as the clock ticks down in yet another game he should have won but is losing by 14?

          I refuse to bet Kansas City in this game, though my numbers tell me the Chiefs are the best team this year and will win not only this game but the Superbowl as well.  Sorry.  I pass.

Copyright2019MichaelKubacki