Seattle
at Atlanta (-5)
This line
opened at 3 ½ and now is 5. I’m still
taking Atlanta, which has the best AYP (8.1) in either Conference. Seattle’s AYP is 6.2. Atlanta also boasts a point differential of 8
½ points, second only to New England.
Russell
Wilson had a very nice game against the Lions, with 210 yards on 30 attempts, and
no interceptions. An important reason
they won, however, was the sudden appearance of the Seahawks’ running game,
which had been largely absent all season.
It was too much for the Lions.
Even so, the score was only 10-6 after three quarters, so the final
tally of 26-6 is not as impressive as it looks.
Taking
Atlanta means you don’t believe the Seahawks have the shut-down pass defense
that made them famous. They don’t. Seattle’s defensive AYP this year was
5.7. Seven of the twelve playoff teams
had a better number, including Atlanta.
Houston
at New England (-15 ½)
There is no
way to handicap a line like this in the playoffs. The Patriots have the highest AYP (7.7) in
the AFC, and Houston has the lowest (4.1).
New England outscored its opponents by 12 points per game. Houston was outscored by a field goal, on
average, every time they took the field.
New England
will win and there is no reason to believe the game will be close. However, they may win by 10 after leading by
30, or they may win by 30 after leading by 30.
Pass.
Pittsburgh
at Kansas City (-1)
The Steelers
opened in Vegas as a 1-point favorite and now are a 1-point dog. KC wins the AYP battle 6.1 to 5.8. They also lead in defensive AYP 5.1 to
5.5. Point differential is the same. And the game is in KC.
KC should be
favored by 4 or 5 points. They are not
because 1) there are way more Steelers fans than Chiefs fans, and 2) Le’Veon
Bell reinvented the running back position in the Dolphins game.
Bell is a
nice running back. In fact, he was 5th
best in the NFL in 2016. However, his
167 yards last week was more the result of Miami’s injured defensive line than
Le’Veon’s unstoppable nature. The
evidence of that is the way he gained those yards, which the announcers tried
to tell us was something new under the sun.
Hesitation
before picking a hole and running through it is a luxury that runners rarely
have, but if the offensive is totally dominating the line of scrimmage, it’s
what a back should do. O.J. Simpson did
it. Jim Brown did it. When there is NO penetration by the defense
into the offensive backfield, the smart thing to do is pause for a half-second to
find the best path.
Le’Veon may
have a decent game against KC, but the story of the Miami game was the Dolphin
injuries.
Take
KC. Lay the point.
Green Bay
at Dallas (-4 ½)
The Dallas
AYP is 6.9. Green Bay’s is 6.1. Dallas’
point differential is 7; Green Bay’s is 2 ½.
Dallas has the better numbers.
On the other
side, there is Aaron Rodgers vs. Dak (don’t call me “Dakota”) Prescott. Rodgers had a wonderful game (331 yards, 40
atts, no ints) against a very good Giants defense. Dak, however, had a genuinely great season,
with a passer rating of 104.9 (vs. Rodgers’ 104.2). He also has a running game that must be
respected, while Green Bay does not. But
now, in the playoffs, he’s a rookie again, while Rodgers already owns some
jewelry.
I think
Dallas wins this game, but I feel little confidence in laying 4 ½ points on
them. I pass.
Copyright2017MichaelKubacki
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