Thursday, January 19, 2017


Green Bay @ Atlanta (-5)

If you believe in the magical march of Aaron Rodgers to the NFL Championship, pay no attention to me.  But if the Yards/Pass metric has any validity, Atlanta should dominate this game.

The Falcons’ AYP is 8.1 and Green Bay’s is 6.1.  Atlanta’s defensive AYP is better as well.  Finally, Atlanta’s point differential is 8 ½ points per game; the Packers was 2 ½.

Take the Falcons and lay the 5.

Pittsburgh @ New England (-6)

The Patriots also dominate all the categories we care about.  Point differential is 12 points per game, while Pittsburgh’s is 4 ½.  The Pats have an AYP of 7.7; the Steelers are at 5.8.  The New England pass defense also appears slightly stronger than Pittsburgh’s.

Yes, six points is a lot to lay in a Conference Championship game.  Still, I’m laying it.


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