2026 NFL PLAYOFFS---Conference Championships

         I expect both Conference Championship games will be blow-outs and will lead to a Seahawks-Patriots Superbowl.

 

New England @ Denver (+5.5)

 

         New England is the best team in the AFC playoff list and Denver is the worst.  Adjusted yards/pass (“AYP”), for the Pats was 8.1 this season; for the Broncos it was 5.5.  New England was 7-0 in blow-outs this year and Denver was only 3-1.  While it is true the Pats will be forced to do their dirty work in the unfriendly confines of Mile High Stadium, they are 8-1 on the road this year.

 

         I’m deeply annoyed Bo Nix got totaled last Saturday because it means the Pats will be laying two or three points more than they otherwise would have.  Nix is not the reason the Broncos got to the playoffs and there is no reason to think they will be a worse offensive team with Jarrett Stidham over center.  Denver might be better off with what’s-his-name, who hasn’t thrown an NFL pass since 2023, but I still have to lay the extra points.

 

         The Broncos could bring back John Elway for all I care.  The Pats win, and easily.  Lay the points.

 

L.A. Rams @ Seattle (-2.5)

 

         The Rams are 8-0 in blow-outs this year and the Seahawks are 7-0.  In terms of all the important numbers, these are the two best teams in the NFC by a substantial margin.  The Rams even have a slightly superior AYP (7.2 to 6.9), though Seattle’s pass defense is significantly better, statistically.  These teams played each other twice, and each won a close game at home.

 

         But that was then and this is now.

 

         The LA. Rams have now won two games in these playoffs and haven’t covered yet.  I hate teams like that, don’t you?  But that’s not why I’m predicting a rout here.  It’s because the Seahawks are getting better every week and the Rams continue to go backwards.

 

         The Seahawks were good enough to take the Wildcard Weekend off and then crush the 49ers 41-6.  The Rams, by contrast, played the two worst teams in the NFC playoff roster and eked out 3-point wins against each.

 

         L.A. has survived by outscoring opponents, but the margins keep getting smaller.  They have given up 27 ppg over their last eight games while Seattle, over the same period, has given up only 13 ppg.  Over the same stretch, going back to November, the Seahawks’ margin of victory was more than two touchdowns per game, while the Rams’ was only 6.5 points.

 

         I am surprised the line here is only 2.5 points.  A more realistic spread would be 7.  Take the Seahawks and lay the points.

 

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