Sunday, February 22, 2026

MOVING TO VEGAS: Observations About My New Home

 

“In Carthage, nothing that results in profit is regarded as disgraceful.”

                  ---Polybius, 2nd Century BC

 

“Much the same can be said of Vegas.”

                  ---Me, 2025

 

There are mountains here everywhere, hundreds of mountains.  I cannot go outside and NOT see mountains.  The closest ones are bare and rocky and desert-like.  In the distance they are snow-capped. 

 

         With the mountains all around, you also get a big sky that stretches over the entire basin that is Vegas.  Sometimes it’s blue from one horizon to the other.  More often, there are clouds tinted by shadows and sunlight into variegated streaks and puffs, and the colors change constantly in the afternoon as the sun drops behind the mountains.  It’s quite beautiful and I’m trying to enjoy it because I know it’s going to start to piss me off any day now.       

 

                                                      *

 

         In Uncle Vanya, or maybe it’s The Cherry Orchard, there’s a comic character who delivers a pompous dissertation on how much he misses his home.  “In Moscow, I had a nephew and a cousin; here I have nothing.  In Moscow, there are elephants at the zoo.  Here, I have nothing.”

 

         There are still times I feel like that guy.  In Philadelphia, I had naked mole rats and half-price burger nights at Murphy’s and good Italian rolls and people walking around dressed like Betsy Ross---here I have nothing.  Ah well….

 

         Moving to a new city you know nothing about is fraught with things you don’t know, and you don’t even know you didn’t know them.  Las Vegas, for example, has a highly competitive sushi restaurant scene with all-you-can-eat sushi available 24/7, with an infinite variety of rolls you’ve never seen before and fish species so strange that you are justifiably wary.   I had no idea. 

 

         But try to find a cream donut.

 

         The absence of cream donuts is something I never expected.  The angel cream (NOT Bavarian!), donut covered in powdered sugar is a guilty pleasure I became hooked on at the age of four.  They came from Hesh’s bakery on Castor Avenue in NE Philly, a bakery that disappeared late in the 20thCentury.  But there were plenty of other bakeries that made cream donuts, including Dunkin and Krispy Kreme, and I’ve been eating them for the last seventy years.

 

As the fashion for “health food” began to spread across the fruited plain, my angel cream donuts became less and less morally acceptable, and I began (without consciously deciding), to sneak them.  Few of my friends have ever seen me eat a cream donut.  Even my wife is not aware of the full extent of this lechery because I would often grab one at Shoprite and inhale it before I got home with the rest of the groceries.  I told myself I was sparing her the spectacle of my consumption.  She doesn’t care to see food on my face and there’s no way to consume a cream donut without plastering your mug with powdered sugar, so I was doing her a favor.  You see that, right?  But it wasn’t true.  I was hiding my cream donut vice from her.  And now, in Vegas, I am unable to indulge at all.  Karma, dude.  It’s a bitch.

 

                                                      *

 

         For someone who has spent years driving the streets of Philadelphia, Las Vegas is a surprise.

 

         We live in a residential area characterized by a grid of 4-lane streets that intersect at 4-way stop signs.  People stop at these signs; they don’t roll through them.  Everybody actually stops.  In fact, if someone gets to their sign a half second before you, they will often sit there and let you go first.  Being from Philly, I at first thought they were idiots.  Then I realized they were being polite and obeying traffic laws.  Imagine that.

 

         I also don’t see cars driving six inches behind my bumper.  And if you have the right of way, nobody cuts in front so you are forced to brake.

 

         I am told people do dangerous things on the road downtown and near the casinos, especially after dark, and I don’t doubt there are crazy drunks in Las Vegas, but I don’t drive around the casinos late at night, so I never see them.

 

         I attribute driving manners at least partly to the fact that Nevada is a “constitutional carry” state where a lot of normal people are packing, versus Philadelphia where most people who are armed are criminals because it’s so difficult for good citizens to carry a weapon legally.  People tend to be more polite in a place like Vegas because there are so many guns on decent people’s hips.  You would rather not piss anyone off.

 

                                                      *

 

         The cultural differences, like driving patterns, are the things you notice first when you move to a different city.  Smoking, for example. There is more indoor smoking here because it is permitted in casinos and everyplace with a bank of slot machines is considered a sort of casino.  Smoking is not as common as it was, of course, so you never encounter a smoke-filled room, even in Vegas, but I do like the smell of cigarette smoke when I encounter it.  I think I still miss smoking from when I stopped twenty years ago.  To me, the smell will always say “party.”

 

                                                      *

 

         There’s also more water-carrying in Las Vegas than I’m accustomed to.  I have generally regarded people who carry a drinking liquid around with them with something less than esteem and respect.  When I visited Joshua Tree, California this summer, where the daytime temperature was 110 degrees, my views on water-carrying changed a bit, and I now carry my own water in an insulated container.  I’m not proud of it, and it’s not 110 degrees here, so I have no excuse.  I often forget to take my water with me so maybe I’m conflicted.  Am I forgetting my water bottle on purpose?  Subconsciously?  I mean---who the hell am I?

 

                                                      *

 

         There’s no recycling here.  I wouldn’t know how to recycle my beer cans if I wanted to, though I assume there is a city program of some kind because they exist everywhere.  People in the West routinely see vast expanses of nothing and conclude, quite reasonably---well, why can’t we just bury our beer cans in the desert?  I suspect nobody west of the Mississippi was ever persuaded by the we’re-running-out-of-landfills scam of that EPA guy in 1990.  They see that the world consists of little towns here and there, and then there are mountains and deserts and billions of acres of nothing, so the idea of recycling to save the planet just seems silly. 

 

                                                      *

 

         Then there’s bicycle culture, and I apologize for injecting politics into this purely observational piece but it’s difficult to avoid when the subject of bicycles must be discussed.  I confess I have strong feelings about members of the Bike Path Left, the maniacal partisans who often bear “SHARE THE ROAD” tattoos on their thighs and buttocks, who almost elected Howard Dean president in 2004, who only care about bikes and bike lanes, and who are only dimly aware of issues such as inflation, immigration, war, LGBT rights, the climate, and drug policy.  I like the Bike Path Left less than I like communists, and I don’t like communists very much.

 

         I’m intimately familiar with them from Philadelphia, of course, where they have dragooned hundreds of miles of city street acreage for lanes that may be traversed by two bikes per hour but collectively render the entire city undriveable by cars.  The streets of downtown Philly were largely laid out in the 18th Century, so they weren’t very wide to begin with.  Now, laced with bike lanes, they are half the size they once were. 

 

         We have hundreds of miles of bike lanes here in Vegas as well because---well, you know, because of climate change---but most streets in quiet residential neighborhoods are four (or even six), lanes wide, so the bike lanes are not nearly as annoying.  They are even more ridiculous, however, because except for an hour or two per week, they are never used.

 

         Though there is little point in Philly to cutting streets in half for bike lanes that serve no real purpose in moving people around, there are people who use them.  It is possible to commute by bicycle from 10th and Wolf to your job in City Hall and there are probably three people who do that. Therefore, if you are a member of the Bike Path Left, those three people fully justify the $600 billion Philly has spent on bike lanes.

 

         But nobody does that in Vegas.  For one thing, you probably live on Lone Mountain Drive and your job is at the Red Rock Casino eighteen miles away, and you must wear your uniform to work, and for long stretches throughout the year, the ambient temperature is 106 degrees F.  NOBODY rides a bike to work in Vegas.

 

         So who uses the thousands of miles of bike lanes in Las Vegas?

 

          The only time I see anyone on a bike is on Saturday morning when a crew of ten or twelve will pedal past you, all in their multi-colored Italian spandex.  Then, by noon, they’re home again and the streets offer nothing but cars for another week.

 

         Still, you know…climate change. 

 

                                                      *

 

         A large proportion of residential housing in Las Vegas, including where we live, is found in gated communities with walls around them, making these communities difficult to distinguish from minimum-security prisons.  There are hundreds of them, and they all have names designed to impress you with their all-consuming elegance.  Here’s a few:

         Enclave at Gold Rush

         Legends

         El Capitan Ranch

         Durango Reserve

         The Pueblo

         Stone Canyon

         Mariposa

         Timberline

         Big Horn

         Desert Trace

         Desert Creek

         Copperhead Estates

Painted Desert

         Sandstone Edge

         Stone Canyon

         Mar-a Lago

         Cambria

         Deerbrooke Estates

         Cranston Ranches Estates

         Tucson Trails

         Grandview

         Panorama

 

         They are beige.  The buildings and the walls are beige, and all the houses and condos are surrounded by the same red gravel, which comes from the Red Rock Canyon just outside of town.  Millions of years created an iron-rich sandstone, and the red is from the rusting of the iron in the stone.   Instead of lawns, there are 83 trillion tons of this red gravel on the ground in Las Vegas.  Pretty at first, then monotonous.

 

                                                      *

 

         Cheap in Vegas: limes (but not lemons), avocadoes, booze, peppers, and beer.

 

         Very expensive in Vegas (or impossible to find):  Russian or Eastern European foods, tarragon (and other fresh herbs), and the nutmeg-adjacent spice called mace.  Pork costs at least twice as much as it does in Philly.  And I haven’t found a good loaf of bread.

 

                                                      *   

 

         I got a library card here shortly after I arrived and, after living in Philly, was more than a little surprised by the rules and procedures.  Late returns ARE NOT TOLERATED.  For the evil-doers, there is a frightening array of fines, assessments, loss of privileges, and a “collection agency service fee.”  I think eventually they send you to Guantanamo. 

 

         I always thought it was a mistake when the Free Library of Philadelphia abandoned late fees, and I think I was proven correct a few years later when shoplifting was also de-criminalized.  Now, in Philly, most felonies are simply overlooked, and it is sort-of impolite even to mention them.  It’s a slippery slope IMHO, and it starts with the elimination of overdue book fees.

 

                                                      *

 

         Music you hear frequently on classic rock stations in Las Vegas but never in Philadelphia: Meat Loaf.

 

         Music you hear frequently on classic rock stations in Philadelphia but never in Las Vegas: The Beatles.

 

Copyright2026MichaelKubacki

Monday, February 2, 2026

2026 NFL Playoffs—The Superbowl

 

New England vs. Seattle (-4.5)

 

         It remains my position that the most important quality of teams that get to, and win, the Superbowl, is an ability to complete long passes.  It can help to have an effective running back and it can help to have a competent defense (especially a pass defense), but neither of these features offer any value as a predictor of the team that will take home the Lombardy Trophy.  Year after year, however, the teams that go deepest into the playoffs are those that can throw the ball downfield.  This is why the guys who win the Superbowl MVP trophy are usually named Simms, Elway, Warner, Rodgers, Brees, Montana, Manning, and Bradshaw, with a few guys named Rice, Branch, Swann, and Biletnikoff thrown in.  O.J.?  Nah.  Barry Sanders?  Nope.  There are a few running backs on the list but the last one was Terrell Davis in 1998.

 

         By this measure, the best AFC team this year was the Patriots.  Buffalo had an argument for a while, but the final Adjusted Yard/Pass (AYP) for the Patriots was 8.1, the best in the league.

 

         In the NFC, the Rams and the Packers both challenged Seattle for the AYP crown, but the Seahawks kept getting better while L.A. and Green Bay faded.  The Seahawks are now clearly the best the NFC can offer.

 

         This is the correct Superbowl.  New England and Seattle are the two best teams.  And by my reckoning, the Patriots are a wee bit better.

 

         The most important number to consider is offensive AYP, where the Patriots prevail by 8.1 to Seattle’s 6.9.  Though less important, Seattle’s defensive AYP is better (4.5 to 5.7), reflecting the fact of Seattle’s superior pass defense, which may be the best in the NFL.

 

         Other measures are close.  Each team is 7-0 in blow-outs, defined as a win by 11 or more points.  Also, each has a double-digit average margin of victory over the course of their full season.

 

         With the Patriots superior in my numbers, and the Seahawks favored by 4.5, I must take New England here.

 

         It is tempting to look at the Conference Championship games and make too much of the QB performances.  Drake Maye, against an inspired Denver defense and very unpleasant Denver weather, went 10/21 for 86 yards with no interceptions.  He was terrible.  Sam Darnold, on the other hand, had one of his best games of the season, going 25 for 36 for 346 yards (and no INTs) against the Rams.

 

         However, when we compare these QBs based on their overall season performances, well…there’s no comparison.  Each man played every game for his team in 2025-6, and Darnold had a very nice year, with a 7.0 AYP and a 99.1 NFL QB rating.  But Maye’s AYP was a full yard more (8.0), he had six fewer interceptions than Darnold, and he achieved a 113.5 NFL QB rating.

 

         In 2025-6, Drake Maye put up the best stats of any quarterback in the NFL but, for some reason, the Rams’ Matthew Stafford is considered THE superstar and Maye is viewed as “just some guy.”

 

         I refuse to write off the entire season because of how Maye performed in dreadful conditions on January 25th.  The Pats win.  The Pats are back.

 

Copyright2026MichaelKubacki

Wednesday, January 21, 2026

2026 NFL PLAYOFFS---Conference Championships


         I expect both Conference Championship games will be blow-outs and will lead to a Seahawks-Patriots Superbowl.

 

New England @ Denver (+5.5)

 

         New England is the best team in the AFC playoff list and Denver is the worst.  Adjusted yards/pass (“AYP”), for the Pats was 8.1 this season; for the Broncos it was 5.5.  New England was 7-0 in blow-outs this year and Denver was only 3-1.  While it is true the Pats will be forced to do their dirty work in the unfriendly confines of Mile High Stadium, they are 8-1 on the road this year.

 

         I’m deeply annoyed Bo Nix got totaled last Saturday because it means the Pats will be laying two or three points more than they otherwise would have.  Nix is not the reason the Broncos got to the playoffs and there is no reason to think they will be a worse offensive team with Jarrett Stidham over center.  Denver might be better off with what’s-his-name, who hasn’t thrown an NFL pass since 2023, but I still have to lay the extra points.

 

         The Broncos could bring back John Elway for all I care.  The Pats win, and easily.  Lay the points.

 

L.A. Rams @ Seattle (-2.5)

 

         The Rams are 8-0 in blow-outs this year and the Seahawks are 7-0.  In terms of all the important numbers, these are the two best teams in the NFC by a substantial margin.  The Rams even have a slightly superior AYP (7.2 to 6.9), though Seattle’s pass defense is significantly better, statistically.  These teams played each other twice, and each won a close game at home.

 

         But that was then and this is now.

 

         The LA. Rams have now won two games in these playoffs and haven’t covered yet.  I hate teams like that, don’t you?  But that’s not why I’m predicting a rout here.  It’s because the Seahawks are getting better every week and the Rams continue to go backwards.

 

         The Seahawks were good enough to take the Wildcard Weekend off and then crush the 49ers 41-6.  The Rams, by contrast, played the two worst teams in the NFC playoff roster and eked out 3-point wins against each.

 

         L.A. has survived by outscoring opponents, but the margins keep getting smaller.  They have given up 27 ppg over their last eight games while Seattle, over the same period, has given up only 13 ppg.  Over the same stretch, going back to November, the Seahawks’ margin of victory was more than two touchdowns per game, while the Rams’ was only 6.5 points.

 

         I am surprised the line here is only 2.5 points.  A more realistic spread would be 7.  Take the Seahawks and lay the points.

 

Copyright2026MichaelKubacki  

Saturday, January 17, 2026

“NAME THREE”—On the Existence and Identification of Imaginary People

 

         I was writing an article about the cultural changes I experienced moving from Philadelphia to Las Vegas, and at one point, I discussed the practice of carrying water around wherever you go because this particular practice differs somewhat in the two cities.  And as I delved deeper and deeper into the phenomenon, I used the word “retards” to describe a certain group of people.

 

         Before I publish these things online, I usually have my wife review them for typos, grammatical blunders, logical gaps, and other features that may discomfit or annoy my reading public.  On this occasion, she strongly suggested I not use the term “retards” to characterize the people I was describing.  She said it was an ugly term for the cognitively disabled and would put off some of my readers.

 

         “But nobody uses the word that way anymore,” I said.  “It doesn’t mean cognitively disabled.  It means a dope or a low-class boob.”

 

         “But there are still people who would be annoyed because you’re supposed to say neurodivergent or something.  Some people will be offended.”

 

“Name three,” I said.

 

I’ve been doing this for a while now.  Whenever I hear there are a lot of people who think something or did something, or believe something, or will do something, I ask myself whether I know any such people.  I am acquainted with a fair number of people, probably in triple digits, and if I can’t think of somebody I know who might fit the imagined profile, I often conclude that such people don’t exist.

 

It started with Obama in the 2008 election.  I remember being told Obama would have trouble in the election because of all the people who wouldn’t vote for him because he is black.  After I heard this a few times, I realized I didn’t know anybody like that.  So I started asking, “Who?  Name three.” And nobody could name even one. 

 

It’s hard to imagine such a person, actually.  Plenty of people didn’t vote for Obama, but refusing to vote for Obama “because he is black” means that a person would have voted for him if he were white.  In other words, this is someone who voted for Mondale and Dukakis and Bill Clinton and Gore and Kerry, but when Obama came along, they refused.  “Vote for a Negro?  Are you kidding? No way!”  In a nation of a third of a billion people, you can’t say there’s nobody who fits the criteria, but there can’t be more than a handful and they couldn’t affect the results of an election.

 

(Going back into American history, and not very far back, there probably were such people.  In the 1960s, racist Southern Democrats could be persuaded to vote for a Northern liberal like JFK or Hubert Humphrey, but if someone like Jesse Jackson had been nominated by the Democratic Party, Southern Democrats would not have gone along.  Those folks are long gone.)

 

More recently, I have been fed the same line about Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris.  There are just too many Americans, I am told, who won’t vote for a woman.  Again, I say: name three.

 

There are certainly Democrats who stayed home and didn’t vote for Hillary or Kamala, but does that mean they wouldn’t vote for a woman?  No.  It means they wouldn’t vote for those women, who are arguably the worst Democratic candidates in at least the last century.  I could go into more detail about their manifest flaws, but this is not about Hillary or Kamala or Obama, remember?  It’s about using the word “retard” to describe people who have no real physical or mental impairment but are nevertheless, you know, retarded.  And my position is that nobody is offended by the term retarded because nobody uses that term to describe someone with a physical or mental disability.  “Retarded” just doesn’t mean that anymore.  Today “retarded” only means things like driving your car, alone, with an N-95 mask on.

 

The meaning of words changes over time.  “Zounds” and “gadzooks,” both of which refer to the wounds inflicted on Jesus Christ, were fairly powerful cuss words at one time, and now they are archaic joke words like cowabunga.  “Retarded” has a history as well.  At one time, “idiot” and “moron” were clinical terms used to describe different levels of cognitive disability, but they lost any clinical meaning and became silly insults used by The Three Stooges and others.  “Retarded” replaced them because it was thought to be a more elegant and gentle and descriptive term.  Now “retarded” has become a joke too.

 

And it’s only a joke.  No one is truly offended by it anymore.  My definitive proof came recently when Donald Trump called Minnesota Governor Tim Walz a retard.  There was enormous pushback to this remark by Democrats and the press and other Trump-haters, but none of it was based in the use of the word itself.  Instead, the response was a straight denial of the charge.  Tim Walz is not a retard, they said.  Trump is the retard.  Renaming the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts the “Donald Trump and John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts”---now there’s the retard. In other words, though the response to Trump’s insult was outrage, the responders nevertheless accepted the modern meaning of “retard” and “retarded.”  Everybody accepts it---right, left, Trump-lovers, Trump-haters, the woke, and the unwoke.  Even retards.

 

Copyright2026MichaelKubacki

Thursday, January 15, 2026

2026 NFL Playoffs—DIVISION WEEK

 

         The only comment I received on my article on Wildcard Weekend was that it didn’t have any jokes in it.  “You used to put a lot of jokes in these things.  What happened to you?”

 

         So, do you know why football players don’t wear glasses?  Because it’s a contact sport!!!!!

 

Buffalo @ Denver (-1)

 

         This is the easiest pick of the weekend.  Denver has the lowest Adjusted Yards/Pass in the AFC, at 5.5 yards.  Buffalo, at 7 AYP, is second only to the Patriots.  This is one reason Buffalo scored 80 points more than the Broncos did.

 

         On their way on a 14-3 record, the Broncos lost to the Chargers, Colts and Jaguars, and they played none of this year’s elite squads (the Pats, Seahawks, Rams or the Bills).  With a weak schedule, they were only 3-1 in blow-outs, and their victories included beating the Jets by 2, the Giants by 1, the Raiders by 3, the Raiders by 7, and the Redskins by 1.

 

         Josh Allen, despite his rep as a playoff loser, had the best performance of any QB on Wildcard Weekend, completing 28 of 35 for 273 yards and a QB rating of 108.7.

 

         The wrong team is favored.  Take Buffalo.

 

San Francisco @ Seattle (-7.5)

 

         The other day, I was wondering why the football kept getting bigger.  Then it hit me.

 

In the first game of the regular season, the 49ers beat Seattle 17-13.  In the last game, on January 3, the Seahawks won 13-3 in a dominating performance notable for San Fran’s injuries and anemic offense.  Purdy played for the 49ers, but not well.

 

         Since then, the 49ers beat an Eagles team that seemed to be heading backwards offensively, so we can give them credit for that, but Purdy’s performance of 18 for 31 for 262 yards included two interceptions.  In addition, George Kittle is now lost for the season.

 

         Seattle’s AYP of 6.9 is superior to San Fran’s 6.1.  In addition, the Seahawks probably have the best pass defense in the tournament and the 49ers probably have the worst.  Seattle outscored its opponents by 11 point per game.  San Fran outscored its foes by 4.  Seattle was 7-0 in blowouts while the 49ers were only 5-3.

 

         I will take Seattle and lay the points, but the 7.5 points are a problem.  Two teams in the same division split their two games (both reasonably close), and as the broadcasters like to say, “These two teams know each other very well.”  Seattle will win, but I am not overwhelmingly confident they will cover.

 

Houston @ New England (-3.5)

 

         New England, with the highest AYP in the NFL (8.1 yards), is one of my favorites to win it all.  Houston, with a 6.1 AYP, should be a substantial underdog (more than 3.5 points), so my choice here is clear.  I’m on the Pats.

 

         On other measures, however, Houston has much to recommend it.  Both teams blew out their opponents in Wildcard Weekend, both teams outscored their opponents by a touchdown or more in the regular season, and neither team got blown out this year (Pats were 7-0 in blowouts and the Texans were 5-0).  Also, one can argue that the Texans, with their 19 interceptions on the year (vs. 10 for the Pats), have a better pass defense.

 

         So I’m not suggesting the Texans are hopelessly outclassed.  But the Patriots are better, and they are also at home.  Lay the points.

 

         And I have one more suggestion.  Houston gave up 6 points last week and the Patriots gave up 3.  With the total for this game at 41, consider the under.

 

         And by the way, do you know where football players go when they need a new uniform?  New Jersey!   

 

LA Rams (-3.5) @ Chicago

 

         Considering the numbers over the regular season, this game looks like a joke.  The Rams should win by 30.

 

         AYP for the Rams is 7.2; for the Bears, it’s 6.3.

 

         The Rams beat their opponents by 10.1 PPG; the Bears won by 1.5 ppg.

 

         The Rams were 8-0 in blowouts; Chicago was 3-2.

 

         Looking at just last weekend, Caleb Williams had a fairly dreadful game against the Pack, going 24-48 for 361 yards and 2 interceptions.  His NFL quarterback rating was 71.8.  Stafford’s (for the Rams), was 93.8.

 

         And yet, the Rams seem to be going backwards and have not played an impressive game since mid-November.  Over their last seven games (including the wildcard), they are only 4-3 and are giving up almost 30 points per game.  And of course, the mighty Carolina Panthers, who were a 10.5-point dog, almost beat them last week.

 

         And then there’s the stinkin Bears, who never look very good but who always seem to win the game they MUST win.

 

         So I guess my advice is to proceed cautiously.  All I have is my numbers and they tell me the Rams will (should?) crush da Bears, so I’m laying the points.  And maybe holding my breath.

 

         And as for the Dolphins, they didn’t make the playoffs this year, but they always lead the league in one statistical category: all-porpoise yards.

 

Copyright2026MichaelKubacki 

Thursday, January 8, 2026

2026 NFL Playoffs---WILDCARD WEEK


         I refer the reader to previous articles on my NFL playoff predictions for the philosophy that guides me.  In a nutshell, the teams that win the NFL playoffs are teams that can complete long passes.  The best defensive teams rarely win.  Teams with run-based offenses never win.  What you must do to win a Superbowl is throw the ball down the field.

 

           For this reason, my primary tool is a number I call AYP, or “adjusted yards per pass.”  This is the number of yards gained passing during the season divided by the number of passes thrown and adjusted downward for the number of interceptions thrown.  A very good team will have an AYP over 7 for the season.  An AYP of 6 is pretty good.  Teams with an AYP under 5 do not play games in the month of February.

 

          Since AYP can also be calculated for a team’s pass defense, I do so, mostly so I can look at the extremes: who has a good pass defense and who has a bad one.  I also glance at point differentials over the course of the season.

 

          Finally, I note how each playoff team did in blowouts (defined as a game decided by 11 or more points), during the season.  When one good team beats another good team with a last-second field-goal, it may mean they got lucky. But when a good team beats another NFL team by 28, it tells me something.

 

         We start with the three categories of teams.

 

         With 14 teams in the playoffs, the occasional weakling may sneak through to the second round, but they have no real shot at playing in February.  The PRETENDERS in 2026 are the Broncos, Steelers, Chargers, Bears, Panthers, and  49ers.

 

         COULD GET LUCKY teams are those that have something going for them and could get to the Super Bowl with a few breaks here and there.  This year, there are four: the Jaguars, Texans, Eagles, and Packers.

 

         CONTENDERS are the best of the best, and this year they include the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks, and Rams. All of them expect to win the Super Bowl, and they will be disappointed if they don’t at least get there. 

 

L.A. Rams (-10.5) @ Carolina Panthers

 

         The Rams present an AYP of 7.2, best in the NFC.  The Panthers, with a 5.2 AYP have the worst number in the 14-team tournament.   The game looks very much like a blow-out, and the Rams are 8 – 0 in blow-outs this season, while the Panthers are 1-5.  And did I mention the Rams have outscored opponents by more than ten points per game while the Panthers have been outscored by four points per game?

 

         On the other hand, Carolina BEAT the Rams 31-28 on November 30.  This was the beginning of a disappointing last six games for the Rams where they went 3-3 (other losses to the Falcons and Seahawks) and gave up 28 ppg for those final six.

 

         This is not my favorite game of the weekend, and asking a fading Rams squad to cover a large spread like this is maybe asking too much.  Still, the Rams CAN throw the ball down the field and the Panthers don’t belong here, so I’m laying the points.  One thing I know is that the Rams can score the points---they scored 518 of them this year, highest in the league.

 

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (-1.5)

 

         Green Bay’s injuries late in the season have been a problem.  Micah Parsons is out until next year and Jordan Love ended December with a concussion.  The Pack lost their last four games and the last two were blowouts by the Vikings and Ravens.

 

         Love has cleared the concussion protocols, however, and will play.  While Green Bay may not go deep into the tournament, the return of Love should be enough to get them past the Bears.  The Packers’ AYP is 7.1, mostly due to Love’s excellent season, while the Bears’ AYP is only 6.3.

 

         The Bears are here for two reasons.  First, their division, which looked so scary last year, is not nearly as strong as it was, allowing the Bears to rise to the top.  Second, while Chicago’s pass defense is only 9th best among playoff teams, they posted 23 interceptions this year, and some happened to come in close games in the last minutes.

 

         The Bears and Packers split their two games, each winning at home.

         

         The wrong team is favored.  Green Bay will win outright.

 

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

 

         These are both good teams, and either is capable of getting to the Superbowl.

 

         Jacksonville has won eight in a row and six of them were blowouts.  They have beaten their opponents by eight points per game and they may have the best pass defense in the NFL (partly because of 22 interceptions).   They are 13-4, one win better than Buffalo’s 12-5.

 

         Buffalo is close in all the secondary categories I look at.  They outscored opponents by 7 ppg (the Jags margin was 8ppg), and they were 6 – 1 in blowouts (Jags were 7 – 1).

 

         The major difference is that Buffalo can make the big plays.  Their AYP, thanks to Josh Allen, is 7.0, best in the AFC.  Jacksonville’s is only 6.1. 

 

         I will be on Buffalo, laying the points, but I expect a close game that could go either way.

 

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

 

         An offensive tackle is not usually viewed as THE key to a team’s offence, but Trent Williams is that guy for the 49ers, and it appears he may be too injured to play.  Without an effective offence, San Francisco is in trouble because they have gotten this far by outscoring their opponents.  Their pass defense is among the worst in the playoffs.

 

         Both teams have outscored opponents by about 3.5 ppg and have recorded more blowouts than blown-outs.  Philly has a meaningful edge in the AYP game (6.6 to 6.1) however.  That, the 49er’s weak pass defense, and the injury situation, lead me to take the Eagles and lay the points.

 

L.A. Chargers @ N.E. Patriots (-3.5)

 

         This is one of the easier choices.  The Pats dominate in almost every category.

 

         The Pats outscore opponents by 10 ppg; the Chargers beat theirs by only 1.5.  New England is 7 – 0 in blowouts, while the Chargers are only 5 – 4.  Most significantly, the Pats have an 8.1 AYP, best in the tournament, and the Chargers’ AYP is a mere 5.7.  New England also scored the most points of any AFC playoff team, and the Chargers scored the least.

 

         The Patriots will cover with room to spare.

 

Houston Texans (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

 

         This too looks like an easy cover for the favorite.

 

         Houston started the season at 3 – 5, then won their last nine games.  They have not lost since November 2nd, when the Broncos took them 18 – 15 on a field goal on the last play of regulation.  Along the way, the Texans blew out five teams and never got blown out themselves (Pittsburgh was just 3 – 3 in blowouts). They also outscored their opponents by 6.5 ppg and the Steelers outscored theirs by half a point per game.

 

         Houston’s AYP of 6.1 does not suggest they will be playing in the Superbowl, but the Steelers are even lower, at 5.8.  Finally, the Texans have given up the fewest points (295) of any team in the AFC.

 

         I’m taking Houston and laying the points.

 

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