I refer the reader to previous articles on my NFL playoff predictions for the philosophy that guides me. In a nutshell, the teams that win the NFL playoffs are teams that can complete long passes. The best defensive teams rarely win. Teams with run-based offenses never win. What you must do to win a Superbowl is throw the ball down the field.
For this reason, my primary tool is a number I call AYP, or “adjusted yards per pass.” This is the number of yards gained passing during the season divided by the number of passes thrown and adjusted downward for the number of interceptions thrown. A very good team will have an AYP over 7 for the season. An AYP of 6 is pretty good. Teams with an AYP under 5 do not play games in the month of February.
Since AYP can also be calculated for a team’s pass defense, I do so, mostly so I can look at the extremes: who has a really good pass defense, and who has a bad one. I also glance at point differentials over the course of the season.
Finally, I note how each playoff team did in blowouts (defined as a game decided by 11 or more points), during the season. When one good team beats another good team with a last-second field-goal, it may mean they got lucky. But when a good team beats another NFL team by 28, it tells me something.
We start with the three categories of teams.
I no longer define PRETENDERS as those teams who won’t win a game, because with 14 teams in the playoffs, the occasional weakling may sneak through to the second round, though they have no real shot at playing in February. The pretenders in 2025 are the L.A. Rams, Chiefs, Texans, Steelers and Broncos.
COULD GET LUCKY teams are those that have something going for them and could get to the Super Bowl with a few breaks here and there. This year, there are five of them, largely because none of the top teams appear invincible. These are the Buccaneers, Vikings, Redskins, Packers, and Chargers.
CONTENDERS are the best of the best, and this year they include the Lions, Eagles, Bills and Ravens. All of them expect to win the Super Bowl, and they will be disappointed if they don’t at least get there.
L.A. Chargers (-2.5) @ Houston
The AYP numbers here are enough to dictate the result. The Chargers, at 6.8, have one of the best numbers in the tournament while Houston (at 5.1 AYP) has the worst. Defensive AYP for both teams is under 5.0, making them two of the better pass-defending teams in the playoffs.
Houston may actually have the best pass defense in the NFL, but the playoffs tend to be about scoring rather than defending and Houston seems to be going backwards in that department. In their last four games they have scored 20, 19, 2, and 14 points. Over the season, they have not outscored their opponents, while the Chargers put up an additional 6 points per game against theirs.
Lay the points.
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-10)
No one will pick the Steelers to win this game, so the question is whether the Ravens can cover. I think the answer is that they can and they will. If this were simply a matter of reviewing the teams’ numbers over the course of the season, one could be forgiven for taking the points with the Steelers. However, the two squads are going in different directions.
Baltimore is the AFC favorite to get to New Orleans on February 9. Their AYP is 8.0, best in the NFL. (Buffalo is second in the AFC at 6.9.) They are one of three teams that has not been blown out this year, they outscore their opponents by 9.2 points, and they have won five of their last six. Their last four games were all blowout wins, over the Giants, Steelers, Texans and Browns. If they have a flaw, it’s that their pass defense is only mid-range, but it has been good enough.
Pittsburgh has had a fine season, their AYP numbers are respectable, and they have outscored their opponents by 2 points per game. However, they have lost their last four games. Three of them were blow-outs, and one of those blow-outs was a 34-17 loss to the Ravens on December 21.
One reason for Pittsburgh’s decline is that injuries to T.J. Watt seem to be catching up with him. Watt is a defensive superstar whose play has often kept the Steelers close in games where their offense might falter. As recently as December 15, he had five solo tackles, seven overall tackles and two sacks in a game against Philadelphia. Since then, however, he has not recorded a sack and had only two solo tackles. Against the Bengals on January 4, Watt was completely shut out of the stat sheet.
Opponents scheme against him, of course, but typically are unable to stop him entirely. Now, it seems, they can.
Take the Ravens and lay the points.
Denver @ Buffalo (-8.5)
Here is another where no one will pick the underdog Broncos to win outright against a superior Buffalo team that is 8-0 at home this season. Thus, the question is: will the Bills cover? This one is close enough that I will have to (reluctantly), take Denver.
Buffalo’s AYP is 6.9, second in the AFC only to Baltimore, while Denver’s number is 5.3. This is significant, as is the fact that the Bill’s QB is Josh Allen while Denver’s is a rookie named Bo Nix.
When I consider the 8.5-point line, however, I note that Denver played close games with the Chargers twice, with KC and with Cincy. The only real blemish was a 41-10 thumping by Baltimore on November 3. Denver mostly does it with defense, allowing only 18.3 PPG to opponents, but they also scored 425 points, 5th best in the AFC. (Bills were the best, with 525 points.). And in blowouts, the Broncos were 7-1 this season. Their season record was only 10-7, but they achieved that record by beating the crap out of mid-level teams and then losing close games to the good ones.
For all these reasons, one should hesitate before laying 8.5 points to the Denver Broncos. This is not my most confident pick, and a more-sensible player might pass this game. I’ll take the points, however.
Green Bay @ Philadelphia (-4.5)
This is the best Eagles team I have ever seen. It is much better than the team that won the Super Bowl, and by the end of this short essay I will persuade myself to bet them in this game. But first let’s talk about the Packers.
On September 6, Green Bay lost its first game, in Rio de Janeiro, to the Philadelphia Eagles by a score of 34-29. Then, in their six division games against Chicago, Minnesota and Detroit, they lost five excruciatingly close games and beat Chicago 20-19 on November 17. They beat EVERYBODY else. They crushed Tennessee, Arizona, San Fran, Miami, Seattle, and New Orleans, and were one of only three teams that did not get blown out themselves. (Detroit and Baltimore were the other two; KC’s only blowout was in their last game of the season, when Andy didn’t care.)
The Packer AYP number is 6.8, compared to Philly’s 6.5. (Philly’s defensive AYP was 4.3, superior to GB’s 5.0, but as I’ve only pointed out 6 million times, offense is much more important than defense in the playoffs.). Each team outscored its opponents by more than a touchdown per game.
Based on all this, it would be hard to lay the points, wouldn’t it? However, last week’s game against Chicago changes the equation. In the second quarter of that game, Jordan Love hurt his elbow and left the game. He is listed as “questionable” for this playoff game and he says he is “hopeful” he will play. I don’t doubt he will play, but it seems clear he is damaged and will not be at his best.
Love was replaced in the Chicago game by Malik Willis, who was drafted by Tennessee three years ago and moved to Green Bay this past season. He may turn out to be an NFL quarterback, but in three seasons, he has thrown 75 completions in 120 attempts for 900 yards with 3 TD passes and 3 interceptions. His career QB rating is 83.3 on a scale where the stars rate over 100 and journeyman starters usually fall in the 90 to 99 range.
Perhaps even more significant was the injury to WR Christian Watson, who will not play against the Eagles. Watson may not be the Packers top receiver, but he was clearly the only deep threat, with an average reception of 21.4 yards.
These injuries leave Green Bay with an injured (or a novice) quarterback who will be unlikely to complete any long passes in a playoff game against an experienced Eagles team, at home, with all their stars on the field.
There. I did it. I persuaded myself to lay the points and bet the Eagles.
Washington @ Tampa Bay (-3)
The numbers here are spookily similar. The Adjusted Yards per Pass for both Tampa and Washington is 6.1. The defensive AYP for Tampa is 6.0; for Washington it is 5.8. Each team has won five out of its last six, scoring about 30 PPG along the way. Each team is 5-1 in blowouts.
And speaking of blowouts, they played each other on September 8 in the first game of the season, with Tampa Bay winning 37-20. I choose to put very little weight on that result since it was Jayden Daniels NFL debut. Over the course of the season, he has put up a 100.1 QB rating, which is fairly wonderful for a rookie and extraordinary for a rookie on a team like the Redskins that was not expected to do much this season.
The game is in Tampa and the Bucs are favored by 3. I see no reason to bet this game, so I recommend a pass. I am in a playoff pool and must pick every game against the spread, however, so I’m taking Tampa Bay. Nobody will be surprised if Daniels wins himself a Super Bowl ring some year, but he is a rookie and it won’t be this year. Baker Mayfield, on the other hand, is a guy who has paid his dues and now is a veteran quarterback with a 106.8 QB rating.
If you want the action, lay the three points. Otherwise, just sit back and enjoy what will probably be a close game.
Minnesota (-1.5) @ LA Rams
This game has been moved to Arizona because of the fires in Los Angeles. The line has bounced a little over the course of the week, but it has favored the Vikings by a point or two since it opened.
I am surprised Minnesota is not favored by more.
I think the wise guy wisdom is that the Rams started the season 1-4 and then fixed something and went 9-3 the rest of the way, so they must be hot. Also, we cannot ignore that they beat the Vikings 30-20 on October 24. And finally, Matthew Stafford won a Super Bowl in February 2022, so he’s qualified.
Minnesota, for some reason, is not getting any respect. They won nine games in a row before losing to Detroit in the season finale. While they have only a small edge over the Rams in AYP, Sam Darnold has had a stand-out year with a QB rating of 102.5 while Stafford was mediocre at best (QB rating 93.7). Stafford had the best year of his life three years ago and I see no evidence he will repeat that magic moment. He’s not Mahomes or Brady or Peyton Manning. He had a great year, he was surrounded by a good team, and he got a ring. God bless him, but there’s no reason to think he’ll do it again.
Minnesota has a small edge in the offensive AYP, and a clear advantage in everything else. Their QB is better, their pass defense is much better, and they outscored their opponents by almost 6 PPG while the Rams were outscored by theirs. The Vikings were also capable of blowing teams out (4-1 on the season) while the Rams were not (0-2).
And now, for the Rams, it’s not even a home game. Take Minnesota and lay the 1 or 2 points.
Copyright2025Michael Kubacki
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