NIKKI

          As I write this, Nikki Haley is about to get clobbered by Trump in Michigan just as she got clobbered in South Carolina and New Hampshire.  She got pounded by “None of the Above” in Nevada.  Even in the open primary states, where Democrats can vote for her, she loses to Trump by 20 or 30 percentage points.  In a state with a closed primary, where only Republicans can vote for the Republican nominee (e.g., Pennsylvania, Oregon), she is unlikely to get 10% of the vote.

 

         She says she won’t quit, and she still has donors who fund her campaign, yet the only issue she is ever asked about is when she will quit the race and concede victory to Trump.  Particularly annoying are the incessant howls from pro-Trump partisans, which never seem to stop.  Why is she still running?  Why won’t she drop out?  What’s the matter with her??

 

         There are two quite obvious reasons she is still running.  The first is the one she has stated repeatedly.  Trump cannot win a general election, she argues.  He will never get fifty percent of the vote because too many people hate him.  Is she wrong?  I don’t know, but it’s an argument that can’t be dismissed out of hand.  He hasn’t gotten 50% of the vote so far, and he has run for president twice.  And it’s not like the Trump-haters have all suddenly changed their minds and said they’re sorry.

 

         The second reason would be impolite to say, and perhaps politically damaging to her, but we all know what it is.  It is possible Trump will be put in jail, or prevented from running, or will have to make a deal where one of the terms is that he drops out, or is seriously injured or killed by a deranged leftist, or for some other reason will not be on the ballot in November.  If that should happen, Nikki Haley wants to be there when it does.  “Here I am.  Nikki Haley.  Remember me?  I’m running for president and I’m ready to go!”

 

         Do not construe this somehow as an argument that you should vote for Nikki Haley.   I don’t like Nikki Haley.  I view her as combining the worst traits of Mitt Romney and George W. Bush, and it doesn’t help that her backers are Bushies and neo-cons and country-club Republicans and military-industrial rent-seekers.  If she should become the Republican nominee, I doubt I would vote for her.  I might just vote for my wife or RFK Jr. or Nick Foles.

 

         But the pro-Trump partisan nastiness from the pro-Trump partisan nasties doesn’t help the Republicans and it doesn’t help Trump.  He would be much more popular, and much more effective, if he were not so quick to display petty vindictiveness and encourage it in his followers.  But that’s his personality.  He’s fundamentally a bully, which means he values loyalty to himself above all other qualities, and he hates anyone who publicly opposes him.

 

         Haley is running to be the replacement, and it’s a perfectly reasonable thing to do.  Normally, there is no need for a replacement candidate, but this race for the Republican nomination is not normal, and the chance there will need to be a replacement is not zero.  It’s far from zero.  Besides the indictments and the chance Trump’s age will catch up with him, the Democrats will do anything, legal or illegal, to get him out of the race.  Therefore, it is only prudent to have a replacement.  I wish it were someone other than Haley, but she beat Chris Christie and she beat Ramaswamy and she beat DeSantis and some other Republican malcontents and non-entities, so she gets to be the replacement if we need one.  That’s how it works.

 

         If he could perceive subtle distinctions, rather than always dividing the world into “people who love me” and “people who hate me,” Trump would acknowledge what was happening and embrace the Haley-as-replacement-candidate phenomenon.  He could joke about the situation in a good-hearted sort of way, as it gradually became clear no replacement would be needed.  By being minimally gracious about it, he might put himself in a position to gain the support of Haley and her followers once the criminal cases fall apart and the other obstacles are overcome.  Many of Haley’s voters are Democrats or never-Trumpers, of course, but there are also Republicans who could be persuaded to vote for The Donald once they see no other reasonable alternative. 

 

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