I went 2 and 2 for Wildcard Weekend, and I’m not proud of it. I didn’t see Buffalo coming, but perhaps I should have. My other loser, the Cowgirls, was a much better team than SF (which will get crushed this week), but I failed to take into account the now irrefutable fact that Dak Prescott is a mutt. He cannot be trusted. San Fran did not play an especially wonderful game, but they at least showed up. Dakota and the Boys did not.
We had
AYP (Adjusted Yards/Pass) numbers for each team for the regular season, and we
now have AYP numbers for the twelve teams that played on Wildcard Weekend. Here they are:
Winners
LA
Rams 13.0 AYP
Buffalo 12.3
KC 8.9
Tampa 7.9
Cincy 7.3
SF 4.9
Losers
Dallas 5.0
Pitts 4.8
Vegas 4.5
Philly 3.7
NE 3.5
AZ 0.6
I
conclude from the Wildcard games that the teams who can throw the ball down
the field tend to win in the playoffs.
In my examination of the upcoming four games, I seek evidence, hints or suggestions as to
which teams will be able to complete long passes and which teams will not. In the Buffalo-Patriots game, for example, if
we had known Buffalo would finish up with 12.3 AYP and the Patriots would have
3.5, the Bills would have been an automatic selection. Unfortunately, on any given Sunday…etc.,
etc., etc. Past performance is no
guarantee of future results.
Just
out of curiosity, I compiled the rushing stats for the winners and losers as
well. The winners will always have more
rushing attempts than the losers because once you get a lead, you run the ball
in order to keep the clock running. Other
than that, I see nothing very useful in the rushing numbers. The winning teams ran the ball 183 times for
a total of 778 yards, and an average gain of 4.3 yards per attempt. The losers rushed 110 times for 481 yards and
an average of 4.4 yards per attempt.
Running the ball has very little to do with winning playoff games.
Cincy
@ Tennessee -3.5
The
wrong team is favored here. Cincinnati
will win outright.
Tennessee’s
season was highlighted by a five-game winning streak that stretched from
October 18 to November 14 when they beat Buffalo, Kansas City, Indy, LA Rams,
and New Orleans. They then finished the
season with a 4-3 run that included losses to Houston, New England and
Pittsburgh. The four wins in that string
were blow-outs of Jacksonville and Miami along with squeaker victories over San
Fran and Houston.
Tennessee
is here because of its running game, fifth in the NFL with 2404 yards. Their AYP, however, is a mere 5.7, compared
to the Bengals’ 7.4 in the regular season (and 7.3 in its Wildcard win).
Take
the points.
SF @
Green Bay -5.5
This one
is something of a challenge because San Francisco went on the road and won a
game as an underdog against what appeared to be a formidable Dallas team. One is tempted to ask, “Are these guys for
real? Are they peaking at the right
time? Can they go into the tundra this
weekend and slap the Packers around as well?
I doubt
it. When I look at the 49er’s game
against Dallas, I see a Cowboy squad that scored 31 points per game putting up
17, at home, in a playoff game, against the worst pass defense in the
tournament. During the season, San Fran
intercepted nine passes. The only playoff
team with fewer defensive interceptions than San Fran was Vegas.
The
49ers were the happy recipients of a Cowboy meltdown. There is no reason the think Aaron Rodgers
will be similarly kind.
To
their credit, San Fran has the best regular season AYP (7.3), of any team in
the NFC. But Green Bay’s number was 7.0,
which was second best. Also, the Packer
pass defense is far superior to San Francisco’s. And then there’s the tundra….
Take
Green Bay. Lay the points.
LA
Rams @ Tampa Bay -3.5
The
Bucs won seven of their last eight games, losing only the puzzling 9-0 debacle
to the Saints on December 19. They lost
their earlier game to the Saints as well, and a game to the Redskins, and they
also fell to the Rams on September 26.
Tampa won the other thirteen and they outscored their opponents by 9.4
points per game.
The
Rams won twelve games and outscored their enemies by 5.2 per game. Their AYP is the same as Tampa’s and their
pass defense might be a hair behind Tampa’s.
Or it might not.
One is
tempted to say this is exactly the sort of game Brady will find a way to win,
and maybe he will. There is not much
distance between the two teams in terms of the numbers I trust, however, so I
will pass.
Buffalo
@ KC -2.5
The low
point of Kansas City’s season came on October 10 when they lost at home to the
Buffalo Bills by a score of 38-20. At
that point, they were 2-3, and every sportswriter in America was assigned to
write an article entitled, “What is Wrong with Patrick Mahomes?” The two or three who concluded there was
nothing wrong with Patrick Mahomes were correct. The Chiefs finished the season winning nine
of their last ten, beating five playoff teams and losing to the Bungles by only
a field goal. In their last six games,
they outscored their opponents by an average 14 points. Their AYP of 6.4 is almost a yard better than
Buffalo’s.
Not
that Buffalo sucked. Of the twelve games
they won this season (eleven regular season and one playoff), the smallest
margin of victory was twelve points. All
their victories were blowouts. No last
minute field-goal wins. No bad call by
the refs to give them a disputed victory.
Over the entire season, they outscored their opponents by 11.5 points
per game, the biggest margin in the NFL.
The
other point in Buffalo’s favor here is that they have the best pass defense of
any of the remaining teams in the playoffs.
It is certainly better than KC’s.
Nevertheless,
I will bet the Chiefs to continue their roll to the conference championship
game. Josh Allen will score some points
for the Buffaloes, but the central question of this game is whether the Buffalo
pass defense is so good it can stop Mahomes.
I don’t think it can.
Take
the Chiefs and lay the 2.5.
Copyright2022MichaelKubacki
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