Kansas City (-1.5) vs. San Francisco
On
January 19, the bubble burst for Tennessee, a good team that will probably
contend for a few years to come, but which finally ran into an offense it could
not control. I got that one wrong.
In the
NFC, the 49ers rolled easily over the Packers, scoring 37 points against them
for the second time in two months. I
cashed on that one, making my record for these playoffs 5-3.
During
the regular season, KC posted 7.4 Adjusted Yards/Pass, the best in football
this year. Since the 49er’s AYP was
merely a respectable 6.6, the system I am using to make these selections tells
me to bet the Chiefs. A difference of
7.4 to 6.6 is significant, and the Chiefs should cover. That is the call I am making.
There
are always other factors, of course. For
the Conference Championship games, in an effort to determine which teams were “peaking
for the playoffs,” I calculated AYP numbers limited to the last six games of
the season. San Fran, in those last six,
had achieved an 8.5 AYP while KC’s AYP was a less-impressive 6.2. Perhaps the 49ers were actually peaking! Maybe the Chiefs were fading! On the other hand, Kansas City had won all
six of those games by an average margin of 16 points so it was hard to make the
case they were falling apart.
And if
defense matters? Well, SF has an
edge. Their defensive AYP is a stunning
4.1, superior to the Chief’s 4.7. Beyond
the numbers, we all saw what the SF defenders did to the Vikings and the
Packers.
On the
other hand, which QB would you rather have?
Jimmy Garoppolo is certainly good enough to win a championship and I
expect he will someday. Mahomes, however,
is capable of winning any game all by himself.
If this Superbowl is won by the team with the better quarterback, as
most of them are, this is an easy call.
KC, and Mahomes, are better.
And
then finally, there’s the donut boy, with whom most Philadelphians have a
complex love/hate relationship. When he
left here after fourteen seasons as head coach of the Eagles, virtually
everyone was glad to see him go, despite his winning record in the regular
season, despite his (one!) Superbowl appearance, and despite his NFC East
titles. He was extremely fan-unfriendly,
he routinely lied to the sporting press, and he looked very much like the kind
of coach who would usually go 11-5 in the regular season but would NEVER win a
championship.
He is
still that guy. Philadelphia’s dislike
of him has faded now that the Eagles have finally won a Superbowl because the frustration
of those lost fourteen seasons has been buried under the joy of victory, and
there is probably a majority of Philly fans pulling for Andy to win this thing.
I am
not one of them. To me, he is still the
guy who somehow always finds a way to lose the big one.
KC is
the better team. Lay the 1.5
points. If offenses win Superbowls, and
great QBs win Superbowls, and Adjusted Yards/Pass is a legitimate predictor of
who gets the cheese, then go with KC. Personally,
I will have to limit my betting to a traditional wager against my
brother-in-law of one dollar on the coin flip.
In that one, I like heads.
Copyright2020MichaelKubacki
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