Quick, now. What’s
the last dome team to win a Superbowl?
That’s correct. It
was the New Orleans Saints on February 7, 2010 in a game you may have forgotten
because it coincided with celebrations of Dimitri Mendeleev’s birthday around
the globe. On that day, the Saints triumphed
at Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida and defeated the Indy Colts (another dome
team) by a score of 27 - 10.
Most years, two or three dome teams make it to the NFL
playoffs, and all of us wise guys nod sagely and say something like, “Well,
let’s see what happens when they have to leave their little
temperature-controlled hut and play a road game on the planet Neptune (that
one’s still a planet, right?), in January.”
I know I’ve thought that in the past when Indy or Minnesota or Atlanta
managed to limp into the playoffs.
This year, however, Superbowl Whatever-Whatever will be
played under a dome at U.S. Bank Park in Minneapolis, Minnesota, the home field
of the Vikings, and one likely scenario is that the Vikes will simply need to
win three home games (the Divisional Playoff, the Conference Championship and
the Superbowl), to secure the trophy.
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As you should know by now, the predictions here are based on
the theory that the ability to “make a big play” or “throw the ball down the
field” is what wins championships and the best statistical measure of this
ability is what I call Adjusted Yards Per Pass (“AYP”), which is the
readily-available stat yards/pass adjusted downward for interceptions. Teams with a high AYP number win
Superbowls. Teams with low AYPs do not,
no matter how good their running back is or how dominant they are in time of
possession or how many of their starters are married to exotic foreign
supermodels.
I also calculate defensive
AYP because it provides some measure of a team’s ability to stop the other guy
from completing long passes. And
finally, I look at points/game differential, and I do this not because it has a
great track record of predicting Superbowl victories but because a) it’s so
easy to calculate that I don’t see why I shouldn’t, and b) my plodding
intellect assumes that if New England outscores its opponents by 10.1 points
per game and Buffalo is outscored by 3.6 points per game, then New England is
more likely to win a championship. But I
have no evidence to back that up.
And one more thing is being added---I counted the number of
times each team has crushed or been crushed, which is defined as winning or
losing a game by ten or more points.
I’ve discussed this in the past, and it’s something Bill James
originally posited regarding baseball---that the measure of a good team is not
its record in close games but rather its record in blowouts. Truly good teams pummel the weak ones far
more often than they get pummeled themselves.
Here, for example, is the record of the last ten Superbowl winners in
regular-season games decided by ten or more points:
2017 New
England 10-1
2016 Denver 3-1
2015 New
England 8-2
2014 Seattle 8-0
2013 Baltimore 4-2
2012 NYG 4-3
2011 Green Bay 5-0
2010 New
Orleans 9-1
2009
Pittsburgh 6-1
2008 NYG 5-5
Note that the only two teams with more than two crush losses
are the NYG teams in 2008 and 2012 which, under Eli’s magic touch, somehow
managed to get the trophy despite being viewed, by rational observers, as the
twelfth-best of the twelve teams competing that year. In other words, they pretty much sucked all
season, and then got smokin’ hot.
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THE PRETENDERS---Tennessee, Buffalo, Carolina, Atlanta
There are different reasons for discarding these guys, but
the red flags are unmistakable. Carolina (4.5), Tennessee (4.7) and Buffalo
(4.9) have the three lowest AYP in the tournament. Tennessee and Buffalo were outscored by their
opponents in the regular season. None of
them has a winning record against the other playoff teams (Atlanta played seven
playoff teams this year, and lost five of those games). Buffalo has a 2-5 record in crush games
(i.e., they were beaten five times by ten or more points). Carolina was 3-4 in crush games, Tennessee
was 3-3, and Atlanta was 4-2.
Atlanta is the best of the bunch, but their AYP of 6.4 is
only fourth best of the six teams in the NFC.
Their defensive AYP of 5.5 is fifth of six.
All are dogs on Wildcard Weekend, and all of them will
probably lose.
COULD GET LUCKY---Philly, KC, Jacksonville
These teams all have something wonderful going for them, but
also have potentially fatal flaws.
Jacksonville is a hot team among certain wise guys because
they have the best pass defense in the NFL, they are second in points allowed
(Minnesota is first), they outscored their opponents by 9.3 points/game, and
they seem to be getting stronger as the season progresses.
The problem with Jacksonville is that they are all
defense. When they held opponents to ten
points or less, they went 8-0. When they
gave up more than ten points, they were 2-6.
In order to advance to the Superbowl, they will probably have to beat
both Pittsburgh and New England (and both those contests will be road games for
the Jags). How likely is it they will hold
each of those stalwarts to single digits?
As we all remember, KC started the season by dominating the
Patriots in New England, rolled through the first six weeks of the season, and
then fell off a cliff in November. The
Chiefs are the only team that lost to BOTH the Giants and the Jets. They
recovered their mojo sufficiently to win their last four games, beating the
Raiders, Chargers, Miami and Denver (none of which will be playing on February 4th.) So they kind-of suck, right?
Well, maybe. When you
add it all up, they are 10-6 and are tied with NE for the best AYP in the
AFC. They get a pretty easy home game in
the wildcard round, and they’ve already beaten the Patriots. Also, is Andy Reid NEVER going to get a
little lucky and win a Superbowl? OK, I’m
making the call here---KC could get
lucky.
Then there’s my Iggles, the team with the best record in the
NFL but which will be an underdog at home when they play their first game in
the second week of the playoffs.
The theory that Philadelphia can still get to the Superbowl,
and win it, is based on everything you can think of that’s good for the Eagles
and doesn’t have anything to do with Carson Wentz. Home field advantage is part of it, for
example. To get to the Superbowl, Philly
will probably have to win home games against New Orleans and Minnesota, two
decent dome teams that may not like playing in South Philly in January. It is plausible that Philly can win both
those games. Another thing that doesn’t
have anything to do with Carson Wentz is the Eagle defense, which has been very
good and which is at least as responsible as the offense for Philly’s success.
Finally, the thing that really has nothing to do with Carson
Wentz is Nick Foles, who actually has a decent record as an NFL starter (and
backup) quarterback. Philly being what
it is, the overwhelming majority of Eagles fans believe Nick will give us a deer-in-the-headlights-in-the-playoffs
kind of performance. I suspect he will
be better than that, but I too fear he will fall short of the performance
necessary to get to the dance. On the
other hand, he does bear an uncanny resemblance to Jeff Hostetler.
Kidding aside, the real problem with the Eagles is that even
with Wentz, the team’s offense was not good enough to get to a Superbowl. The AYP, most of which is attributable to
Wentz’s play, is only the fifth best of the six NFC playoff teams. The Eagles played a weak schedule, won a lot
of games with their defense, and had more than their share of highlight-reel
plays from their quarterback. That does
not normally win you a ring.
But still…
THE CONTENDERS---New England, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, New
Orleans, LA Rams
We will discuss these teams in more detail next week (they
will all still be in the hunt).
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Tennessee at KC (-8).
The featured item on Tennessee’s
resume is that they beat the Jaguars twice.
However, they have the worst AYP (4.7) in the AFC group, while KC is
tied for first at 6.8. KC will win the
game, but to some extent they are limping into the playoffs, and it’s hard to
get a sense of how good they are. I don’t
bet this line.
Atlanta at LA Rams
(-5 1/2). The Rams win the AYP
battle 6.7 to 6.4, and they also have a superior defense. With the Rams in the ascendant and the
Falcons trying desperately to hang on to last year’s (sort-of) glory, I envision
a game in doubt until the second half, but the Rams pulling away. I lay the points.
Buffalo at
Jacksonville (-8 ½). Initially, you
look at this line and think “Well, Buffalo’s not that bad.” But they are.
Jacksonville beats them in AYP 5.6 to 4.9. Defensive AYP also favors the Jags 3.3 to
4.9. Finally, J’ville outscored their
foes by 9.3 points per game while the Bills were outscored by 3.6. My over/under for Buffalo points in this game
is 6. I think Jacksonville covers.
Carolina at New
Orleans (-7). New Orleans beat
Carolina twice this year, and dominated them, so it’s tempting to take the
contrarian bent that they can’t do it three times. I reject that view. The Saints have the best AYP (7.1) in either
conference and the Panthers have the worst (4.5). The New Orleans defense is also
superior. Carolina is probably the worst
of the twelve teams in the playoffs this year and New Orleans has a legitimate
shot to win it all. I lay the seven
points.
Copyright2018MichaelKubacki
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