KC @ New England (-5)
The Chiefs and the Pats are the two best teams left in the
division, so the winner of this game will be my heavy favorite to win next week
as well.
With the five points, it’s extremely tempting to take the
Chiefs in this spot. They have won
eleven games in a row, they are second in the AFC with an AYP of 6.4, they appear
reasonably healthy (for an NFL team in mid-January), and they crushed Houston
in their wildcard game.
(Note: the big win last week has little value as a
harbinger. I looked back about ten years
and teams winning a wildcard rout do not routinely win the following
weekend. In fact, it often happens that
they are themselves routed by a rested divisional winner.)
On the other side, however, are the Patriots, a team that warrants
serious consideration on pedigree alone.
In addition, their passing offense gets the AFC’s top AYP score of 6.8. AND Edelman and Amendola will both be playing
(though Gronkowski remains questionable).
AND nobody ever got rich betting against New England in New England in January.
I have to pass this game.
I expect the Patriots and Belichick will somehow find a way to win, but
there is no reason to think KC will fail to give a good account of
themselves. If forced to choose, I would
take the points with KC, but I would rather just watch and enjoy this game and
save my cheese for the next contest.
Green Bay @ Arizona (-7)
Arizona has the best AYP (7.5) in the NFL, and they are my choice
to win the Superbowl. Their point
differential of 13.7 points/game is the highest in the league. In addition, they have an excellent pass
defense (though others may be slightly better).
Last week, I listed Green Bay as a “pretender,” and the fact
they beat another pretender (the Washington Ethnic Slurs), does not transform
them into a “contender.” Actually, it’s
hard to be terribly impressed with the win.
The game was not decided until the 4th quarter, and Rodgers
and Cousins had roughly comparable performances. Green Bay remains a team that struggled
through the last half of the season and a team with the worst AYP (5.4) in the
NFC.
Of all the games this weekend, this one appears to be the biggest
mismatch. If Green Bay manages to
sustain a running attack as they did against the Slurs, it could be close. That seems unlikely, however. On December 27, Arizona beat Green Bay 38 – 8,
and there is no reason to expect this result will be substantially different. Expect a blowout and lay the points.
Seattle @ Carolina (-2)
With the best record in football, Carolina is the rare team
that manages to succeed without a great deal of reliance on the big play. The team’s AYP of 6.0 is not a bad number,
but it is fourth in the NFC, and results largely from Cam Newton’s largely
error-free season (only ten interceptions) rather than his ability to complete
the bomb. Along with that comes the 2nd-best
(first was Buffalo) rushing yards in the league and the best pass defense.
In a sense, Carolina is a test of the hypothesis to which I
have dedicated my life and the lives of my eight wives and 36 children in our
heavily-fortified Nevada compound. You
can win a lot of games by being the Carolina Panthers, but in the playoffs,
there will come a time when you have to score and you have to score now, and you have to be able to do it
against anyone. This is why Michael
Jordan and Joe Montana and Reggie Jackson and Wayne Gretsky are revered figures
in sports. It’s also why Barry Sanders
never played in a Superbowl.
There are outliers in any data set, of course. The 1990-91 NY Giants (the team that made
Parcells an official “genius”) certainly didn’t fit my mold, and neither did
the 2000-01 Ravens. They don’t disprove
the theory but they remind us that these are not science experiments, they are
football games, and on a given Sunday….
It goes without saying as well, that I am merely a blowhard and predictor
concerning NFL results and not the vehicle of football’s consciousness.
So maybe Carolina is an outlier. Certainly, it can win this game. Carolina can win the Superbowl. I’m just not picking them to do so.
This is a close game.
Seattle’s AYP is 7.0, a full point higher than Carolina’s, but Carolina’s
pass defense is clearly superior to Seattle’s, as is its point differential. Also, there are a dozen other statistical
measures that seem to favor Carolina.
(One that does not is rushing defense---Seattle has the best in
football. Which is nice when you are
facing the 2nd best running game in the league.)
Finally, there’s the petulant Marshawn Lynch for the
Seahawks to deal with. Maybe it means
nothing when your star running back decides his contract issues are more
important than the opportunity to play in a playoff game, but it can’t be a
positive for the team.
And all this leaves me---nowhere. On balance, the only result that would
surprise me is a blowout by either side, and that makes it tough to play into a
2-point line. So I won’t.
Pittsburgh @ Denver (-7)
For all the reasons discussed last week, Denver’s status as
a top seed is practically supernatural.
They probably shouldn’t be in the playoffs at all. Against a contender, they would lose. Against Pittsburgh? Well, if we knew Roethlisberger were healthy,
I would take Pittsburgh to win outright.
As it is, I will still take the points and the Steelers.
Denver’s AYP for the year is 4.6. Pittsburgh’s is 6.0. It is true that Denver has one of the better
pass defenses in the playoffs and Pittsburgh has one of the worst, but it is
also true that Pittsburgh (a 6 seed) outscored its opponents by 104 points,
while Denver outscored its foes by only 59.
For every point that can be cited in Denver’s favor, there is at least
one for the Steelers as well.
Peyton Manning may recapture the magic this weekend and
throw for five touchdowns, 420 yards and no interceptions, but I’m taking the
points here. As Damon Runyon instructed
us, “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but
that’s the way to bet."
Copyright2016MichaelKubacki
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