2013 NFL PLAYOFFS

No shot: Washington, Minnesota, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Cincy

Can get lucky: Atlanta, Green Bay, Houston

Seriously good: SF, Seattle, Denver, New England

NFC.

Somebody from the NFC will play in the Superbowl this year and they will probably lose to either Denver or New England. The best of the NFC lot are San Fran and Seattle, but Atlanta, Green Bay (and even Washington) are all worthy of some respect. The only real throw-away in this group is Minnesota, the sort of running-back-centered squad that never goes anywhere in the playoffs.

In the yards/pass sweepstakes that matters so much in the tournament, San Francisco and Seattle stand out from the pack. Atlanta, as the #1 seed, gets to play at home, and they are not a fraud, so they have a chance. Green Bay? Well, their yards/pass numbers are decent, and their quarterback is a winner and they won eleven games and.... They are in a wild-card game and that's not normally a path to the championship, but Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers and the tundra is still the tundra and I can't hate them.

In the wild-card games, take Green Bay to cover, even though it's a big number. Also take the Seahawks over RGIII. Washington has had a wonderful year and RGIII is a very nice young man, but their defense is thin and this is one of those teams for whom just making the playoffs is a dream come true. I like these guys a lot, but it's over now.

AFC.

On September 17, the Denver Broncos traveled to Atlanta and lost by 6 points to the undefeated Falcons. The following week, at home, Denver lost (again by 6) to Houston. Two weeks later, in New England, the Broncos lost to the Patriots 31 – 21. Since then, Denver has won eleven games in a row, and only one of those games was as close as 7 points.

Three losses in the season's first five weeks to what may be the league's three best teams (other than Denver itself), all at a time when Peyton Manning was still shaking off a year's worth of inactivity and learning a new offense. Since then, there has not been a single misstep. Denver is this year's favorite to win the Superbowl.

Trivia question: how did Denver get to the playoffs last year? The magic of Tim Tebow? Well, no---not really. It was actually the Denver defense that dragged Tebow and the rest of Denver's dreary little offense along for the ride. That defense is still there, but now a healthy Peyton Manning is running the other piece of the show. Peyton must feel he stepped in something wonderful at last. In all his years at Indy, he never had a defense like the one he has in Denver this year. This is the best pass defense in the playoffs (though Seattle and San Fran are close), and the Broncos are also one of only seven teams this year to give up fewer than 100 yards rushing per game. Denver is also the only AFC team this year to give up fewer than 300 points in the regular season.

Peyton has the best yards/pass numbers in the playoffs and he has the rare luxury of a strong defense as well. Why don't we just hand them the trophy right now?

Well, one reason is the Patriots. They have once again scored a ridiculous number of points (557, to be exact), and scoring points is the most important thing you have to do in January and February. While the Patriot defense is nothing special this year, Brady is so good and so efficient that he can often prevail simply by racking up point totals lesser QBs cannot. Also, while it is possible to beat New England, you cannot beat them up. They lost only four games this year by a total of eleven points. This means that even against strong opponents, they will have the ball in Brady's hands at the end of a close game. Denver is the NFL's best this year, but New England is still dangerous. One must note, however, that the Patriots are only the #2 seed. To get to the Superbowl they will have to win in Denver.

The AFC wild-card games feature Cincinnati at Houston and Indianapolis at Baltimore. Both home teams are favored and both should win but it's hard to find much value in the pointspreads of these games. Baltimore only went 10 - 6 this year, had a relatively weak schedule, and lost four of their last five, so it is tempting to take the points and jump aboard the Andrew Luck train. I remain skeptical of any team in 2012, however, who was capable of losing to the NY Jets by 26 points. Pass.

Copyright2013MichaelKubacki