TIME OF POSSESSION

On April 5, 1989, in one of the most famous games in NCAA tournament history, 16th-seed Princeton held the ball for most of the game, and lost 50-49 to Georgetown, the best team in the country. On every possession, the Tigers passed the ball, worked their weave, and usually managed to find a decent shot with 2 or 3 seconds remaining on the shot clock. And they almost won, though it was a game that should not have been close

In most games with a clock, “holding the ball” is a strategy employed by the weaker team, not the stronger. Reducing the number of possessions effectively shortens the game and introduces an element of luck. In a shorter game, the weaker team always has a chance. Back before the NCAA introduced a shot clock for basketball, it was not UCLA who would hold the ball for as long as they could, it was the St. Leo’s of the world. In a 4-possession game, St. Leo’s could beat UCLA; in a 120-possession game, UCLA would win by sixty.

Football teams often try to employ the same strategy, especially since Bill Parcells used it to win the 1991 Superbowl with what was probably the worst team ever to win an NFL championship. Holding the ball for 40:33 of the game, the New York Giants eked out a 20-19 win when Buffalo’s Scott Norwood missing a winning fieldgoal attempt in the final seconds. It was this game that made Parcells a certifiable football genius and sent every football coach in America scurrying for ways to manufacture 12-minute drives.

There is an additional factor that makes the strategy attractive. It simply takes more energy to play defense than offense. While this is true in any sport, it is even more important in football because of the extreme demands made on defensive players. Football coaches feel that if they can keep the opposing defense on the field for most of the game, they will wear down, become exhausted and make mistakes. Undoubtedly, there is some truth to this, though it would be difficult to quantify.

However, though reducing the number of possessions can help a football team win a game against a stronger opponent, there are three reasons shortening the game is not as effective a strategy in football.

First, it ain’t easy. On the basketball court, playing keep-away is relatively simple, even for the weaker team. In football, however, executing a 15-play drive that consumes eleven minutes on the clock requires you to advance the ball steadily down the field, getting first downs when you need them to keep the drive going.

Secondly, you are less likely to score. One of the biggest problems in putting together a 15-play drive is the likelihood something will go wrong---a fumble, an interception, a bad call by the refs, or a major penalty. In a 15-play drive, something going very wrong is three times as likely to happen as in a 5-play drive. A 15-play drive is notable BECAUSE it is so rare and difficult to achieve. Defenses, remember, are composed of large, extremely-fit, highly-trained, violent men, and their mission to prevent you from advancing the ball. While it may be possible to fool them or overwhelm them on occasion, a strategy that requires you to do that repeatedly is not likely to succeed. (This is why, by the way, every team that relies on the running game for most of its offense is doomed to failure.)

On September 21, 2009, the Indianapolis Colts beat the Miami Dolphins 27 – 23. The result was not surprising. What was notable about the game was that the Colts had possession of the football for just 14:53. The Dolphins had the ball more than three times as long as the Colts, yet lost. This brings us to the third reason that mitigates against holding the ball, at least in pro football.

Specifically, let’s consider the importance of Peyton Manning to the Colts. He is, after all, the highest-paid player on the team, and certainly the most valuable. It’s a solid organization from top to bottom, of course, but without Manning, it would have virtually no shot at making it to the Superbowl. With Manning, however, it’s one of the favorites. He is at least as important to the Colts as Tom Brady is to the Patriots. The Patriots are another great team, but look what happened last year when Brady was injured. The team played well, and were always dangerous, but they never really had a shot at the title.

Every play Peyton Manning is on the field is a play in which he might get his neck broken. It’s a violent game. And this possibility is something every sane general manager and coach has to take into consideration. If you want to get to the Superbowl, and your most valuable player is Peyton Manning, don’t you want him on the field for fifteen minutes a game rather than forty? Ideally, don’t you want to send him out for a four-play touchdown drive and then sit him down while your cheaper (and somewhat interchangeable) beasts go out for ten minutes to stop the other guys?

In the NFL, teams pay about as much money to the defense as they do to the offense, overall. However, the quarterback and the left tackle (and often the star wide receiver) usually get paid more than anybody else on the team. These three offensive players may get 30% of the team payroll. When you are that heavily invested in three players on the roster, you want to do everything possible to protect them from injury, and one thing you can do is design an offense that puts them in danger as little as possible. When Peyton Manning is your quarterback, the LAST thing you want is a 15-play drive, because it might mean the end of your season.

Copyright2009MichaelKubacki