New England vs. Seattle (-4.5)
It remains my position that the most important quality of teams that get to, and win, the Superbowl, is an ability to complete long passes. It can help to have an effective running back and it can help to have a competent defense (especially a pass defense), but neither of these features offer any value as a predictor of the team that will take home the Lombardy Trophy. Year after year, however, the teams that go deepest into the playoffs are those that can throw the ball downfield. This is why the guys who win the Superbowl MVP trophy are usually named Simms, Elway, Warner, Rodgers, Brees, Montana, Manning, and Bradshaw, with a few guys named Rice, Branch, Swann, and Biletnikoff thrown in. O.J.? Nah. Barry Sanders? Nope. There are a few running backs on the list but the last one was Terrell Davis in 1998.
By this measure, the best AFC team this year was the Patriots. Buffalo had an argument for a while, but the final Adjusted Yard/Pass (AYP) for the Patriots was 8.1, the best in the league.
In the NFC, the Rams and the Packers both challenged Seattle for the AYP crown, but the Seahawks kept getting better while L.A. and Green Bay faded. The Seahawks are now clearly the best the NFC can offer.
This is the correct Superbowl. New England and Seattle are the two best teams. And by my reckoning, the Patriots are a wee bit better.
The most important number to consider is offensive AYP, where the Patriots prevail by 8.1 to Seattle’s 6.9. Though less important, Seattle’s defensive AYP is better (4.5 to 5.7), reflecting the fact of Seattle’s superior pass defense, which may be the best in the NFL.
Other measures are close. Each team is 7-0 in blow-outs, defined as a win by 11 or more points. Also, each has a double-digit average margin of victory over the course of their full season.
With the Patriots superior in my numbers, and the Seahawks favored by 4.5, I must take New England here.
It is tempting to look at the Conference Championship games and make too much of the QB performances. Drake Maye, against an inspired Denver defense and very unpleasant Denver weather, went 10/21 for 86 yards with no interceptions. He was terrible. Sam Darnold, on the other hand, had one of his best games of the season, going 25 for 36 for 346 yards (and no INTs) against the Rams.
However, when we compare these QBs based on their overall season performances, well…there’s no comparison. Each man played every game for his team in 2025-6, and Darnold had a very nice year, with a 7.0 AYP and a 99.1 NFL QB rating. But Maye’s AYP was a full yard more (8.0), he had six fewer interceptions than Darnold, and he achieved a 113.5 NFL QB rating.
In 2025-6, Drake Maye put up the best stats of any quarterback in the NFL but, for some reason, the Rams’ Matthew Stafford is considered THE superstar and Maye is viewed as “just some guy.”
I refuse to write off the entire season because of how Maye performed in dreadful conditions on January 25th. The Pats win. The Pats are back.
Copyright2026MichaelKubacki
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