The only comment I received on my article on Wildcard Weekend was that it didn’t have any jokes in it. “You used to put a lot of jokes in these things. What happened to you?”
So, do you know why football players don’t wear glasses? Because it’s a contact sport!!!!!
Buffalo @ Denver (-1)
This is the easiest pick of the weekend. Denver has the lowest Adjusted Yards/Pass in the AFC, at 5.5 yards. Buffalo, at 7 AYP, is second only to the Patriots. This is one reason Buffalo scored 80 points more than the Broncos did.
On their way on a 14-3 record, the Broncos lost to the Chargers, Colts and Jaguars, and they played none of this year’s elite squads (the Pats, Seahawks, Rams or the Bills). With a weak schedule, they were only 3-1 in blow-outs, and their victories included beating the Jets by 2, the Giants by 1, the Raiders by 3, the Raiders by 7, and the Redskins by 1.
Josh Allen, despite his rep as a playoff loser, had the best performance of any QB on Wildcard Weekend, completing 28 of 35 for 273 yards and a QB rating of 108.7.
The wrong team is favored. Take Buffalo.
San Francisco @ Seattle (-7.5)
The other day, I was wondering why the football kept getting bigger. Then it hit me.
In the first game of the regular season, the 49ers beat Seattle 17-13. In the last game, on January 3, the Seahawks won 13-3 in a dominating performance notable for San Fran’s injuries and anemic offense. Purdy played for the 49ers, but not well.
Since then, the 49ers beat an Eagles team that seemed to be heading backwards offensively, so we can give them credit for that, but Purdy’s performance of 18 for 31 for 262 yards included two interceptions. In addition, George Kittle is now lost for the season.
Seattle’s AYP of 6.9 is superior to San Fran’s 6.1. In addition, the Seahawks probably have the best pass defense in the tournament and the 49ers probably have the worst. Seattle outscored its opponents by 11 point per game. San Fran outscored its foes by 4. Seattle was 7-0 in blowouts while the 49ers were only 5-3.
I will take Seattle and lay the points, but the 7.5 points are a problem. Two teams in the same division split their two games (both reasonably close), and as the broadcasters like to say, “These two teams know each other very well.” Seattle will win, but I am not overwhelmingly confident they will cover.
Houston @ New England (-3.5)
New England, with the highest AYP in the NFL (8.1 yards), is one of my favorites to win it all. Houston, with a 6.1 AYP, should be a substantial underdog (more than 3.5 points), so my choice here is clear. I’m on the Pats.
On other measures, however, Houston has much to recommend it. Both teams blew out their opponents in Wildcard Weekend, both teams outscored their opponents by a touchdown or more in the regular season, and neither team got blown out this year (Pats were 7-0 in blowouts and the Texans were 5-0). Also, one can argue that the Texans, with their 19 interceptions on the year (vs. 10 for the Pats), have a better pass defense.
So I’m not suggesting the Texans are hopelessly outclassed. But the Patriots are better, and they are also at home. Lay the points.
And I have one more suggestion. Houston gave up 6 points last week and the Patriots gave up 3. With the total for this game at 41, consider the under.
And by the way, do you know where football players go when they need a new uniform? New Jersey!
LA Rams (-3.5) @ Chicago
Considering the numbers over the regular season, this game looks like a joke. The Rams should win by 30.
AYP for the Rams is 7.2; for the Bears, it’s 6.3.
The Rams beat their opponents by 10.1 PPG; the Bears won by 1.5 ppg.
The Rams were 8-0 in blowouts; Chicago was 3-2.
Looking at just last weekend, Caleb Williams had a fairly dreadful game against the Pack, going 24-48 for 361 yards and 2 interceptions. His NFL quarterback rating was 71.8. Stafford’s (for the Rams), was 93.8.
And yet, the Rams seem to be going backwards and have not played an impressive game since mid-November. Over their last seven games (including the wildcard), they are only 4-3 and are giving up almost 30 points per game. And of course, the mighty Carolina Panthers, who were a 10.5-point dog, almost beat them last week.
And then there’s the stinkin Bears, who never look very good but who always seem to win the game they MUST win.
So I guess my advice is to proceed cautiously. All I have is my numbers and they tell me the Rams will (should?) crush da Bears, so I’m laying the points. And maybe holding my breath.
And as for the Dolphins, they didn’t make the playoffs this year, but they always lead the league in one statistical category: all-porpoise yards.
Copyright2026MichaelKubacki
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