I refer the reader to previous articles on my NFL playoff predictions for the philosophy that guides me. In a nutshell, the teams that win the NFL playoffs are teams that can complete long passes. The best defensive teams rarely win. Teams with run-based offenses never win. What you must do to win a Superbowl is throw the ball down the field.
For this reason, my primary tool is a number I call AYP, or “adjusted yards per pass.” This is the number of yards gained passing during the season divided by the number of passes thrown and adjusted downward for the number of interceptions thrown. A very good team will have an AYP over 7 for the season. An AYP of 6 is pretty good. Teams with an AYP under 5 do not play games in the month of February.
Since AYP can also be calculated for a team’s pass defense, I do so, mostly so I can look at the extremes: who has a good pass defense and who has a bad one. I also glance at point differentials over the course of the season.
Finally, I note how each playoff team did in blowouts (defined as a game decided by 11 or more points), during the season. When one good team beats another good team with a last-second field-goal, it may mean they got lucky. But when a good team beats another NFL team by 28, it tells me something.
We start with the three categories of teams.
With 14 teams in the playoffs, the occasional weakling may sneak through to the second round, but they have no real shot at playing in February. The PRETENDERS in 2026 are the Broncos, Steelers, Chargers, Bears, Panthers, and 49ers.
COULD GET LUCKY teams are those that have something going for them and could get to the Super Bowl with a few breaks here and there. This year, there are four: the Jaguars, Texans, Eagles, and Packers.
CONTENDERS are the best of the best, and this year they include the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks, and Rams. All of them expect to win the Super Bowl, and they will be disappointed if they don’t at least get there.
L.A. Rams (-10.5) @ Carolina Panthers
The Rams present an AYP of 7.2, best in the NFC. The Panthers, with a 5.2 AYP have the worst number in the 14-team tournament. The game looks very much like a blow-out, and the Rams are 8 – 0 in blow-outs this season, while the Panthers are 1-5. And did I mention the Rams have outscored opponents by more than ten points per game while the Panthers have been outscored by four points per game?
On the other hand, Carolina BEAT the Rams 31-28 on November 30. This was the beginning of a disappointing last six games for the Rams where they went 3-3 (other losses to the Falcons and Seahawks) and gave up 28 ppg for those final six.
This is not my favorite game of the weekend, and asking a fading Rams squad to cover a large spread like this is maybe asking too much. Still, the Rams CAN throw the ball down the field and the Panthers don’t belong here, so I’m laying the points. One thing I know is that the Rams can score the points---they scored 518 of them this year, highest in the league.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (-1.5)
Green Bay’s injuries late in the season have been a problem. Micah Parsons is out until next year and Jordan Love ended December with a concussion. The Pack lost their last four games and the last two were blowouts by the Vikings and Ravens.
Love has cleared the concussion protocols, however, and will play. While Green Bay may not go deep into the tournament, the return of Love should be enough to get them past the Bears. The Packers’ AYP is 7.1, mostly due to Love’s excellent season, while the Bears’ AYP is only 6.3.
The Bears are here for two reasons. First, their division, which looked so scary last year, is not nearly as strong as it was, allowing the Bears to rise to the top. Second, while Chicago’s pass defense is only 9th best among playoff teams, they posted 23 interceptions this year, and some happened to come in close games in the last minutes.
The Bears and Packers split their two games, each winning at home.
The wrong team is favored. Green Bay will win outright.
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
These are both good teams, and either is capable of getting to the Superbowl.
Jacksonville has won eight in a row and six of them were blowouts. They have beaten their opponents by eight points per game and they may have the best pass defense in the NFL (partly because of 22 interceptions). They are 13-4, one win better than Buffalo’s 12-5.
Buffalo is close in all the secondary categories I look at. They outscored opponents by 7 ppg (the Jags margin was 8ppg), and they were 6 – 1 in blowouts (Jags were 7 – 1).
The major difference is that Buffalo can make the big plays. Their AYP, thanks to Josh Allen, is 7.0, best in the AFC. Jacksonville’s is only 6.1.
I will be on Buffalo, laying the points, but I expect a close game that could go either way.
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
An offensive tackle is not usually viewed as THE key to a team’s offence, but Trent Williams is that guy for the 49ers, and it appears he may be too injured to play. Without an effective offence, San Francisco is in trouble because they have gotten this far by outscoring their opponents. Their pass defense is among the worst in the playoffs.
Both teams have outscored opponents by about 3.5 ppg and have recorded more blowouts than blown-outs. Philly has a meaningful edge in the AYP game (6.6 to 6.1) however. That, the 49er’s weak pass defense, and the injury situation, lead me to take the Eagles and lay the points.
L.A. Chargers @ N.E. Patriots (-3.5)
This is one of the easier choices. The Pats dominate in almost every category.
The Pats outscore opponents by 10 ppg; the Chargers beat theirs by only 1.5. New England is 7 – 0 in blowouts, while the Chargers are only 5 – 4. Most significantly, the Pats have an 8.1 AYP, best in the tournament, and the Chargers’ AYP is a mere 5.7. New England also scored the most points of any AFC playoff team, and the Chargers scored the least.
The Patriots will cover with room to spare.
Houston Texans (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
This too looks like an easy cover for the favorite.
Houston started the season at 3 – 5, then won their last nine games. They have not lost since November 2nd, when the Broncos took them 18 – 15 on a field goal on the last play of regulation. Along the way, the Texans blew out five teams and never got blown out themselves (Pittsburgh was just 3 – 3 in blowouts). They also outscored their opponents by 6.5 ppg and the Steelers outscored theirs by half a point per game.
Houston’s AYP of 6.1 does not suggest they will be playing in the Superbowl, but the Steelers are even lower, at 5.8. Finally, the Texans have given up the fewest points (295) of any team in the AFC.
I’m taking Houston and laying the points.
Copyright2026MichaelKubacki
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