2021 NFL PLAYOFFS---Division Week

 

Except for Cleveland, these are the best eight teams.

 

LA Rams at Green Bay (-7)

 

          The Rams played a wonderful game, on the road, and beat Seattle last week.  Their defense dominated.  And they have the best pass defense in the tournament.

 

          However, Green Bay is not Seattle.  GB’s AYP is a (stunning) 7.7, the highest of any team in the NFL, while the Rams’ AYP is a middling 5.9.  The Packers’ record in blowouts (games decided by ten or more points) was 8-1; the Rams’ record in those games was 6-2.

 

          This game is a mismatch.  Green Bay covers.

 

Baltimore at Buffalo (-2.5)

 

          Because Baltimore’s offense is different from that of most teams, the Lamar Jackson-led Ravens will probably never look that powerful when viewed through the prism of AYP.  Last week, with their AYP of 5.8, Baltimore faced a Tennessee team with an AYP of 7.2.  I picked the Titans.  I lost my bet.

 

          Here, I have to travel much the same road.  Buffalo’s AYP is 7.1, far superior to Baltimore’s.  The Bills do have a much better pass defense than Tennessee did, and that may make the difference.  But the truth is: I am probably not ever going to be a fan of the Ravens offense.

 

          The other thing that stands out about the Bills is the way they have come into the playoffs.  In their last six regular season games, they scored an average of 38 points and beat all six opponents by an average of 20 per game.  It is true that Indy provided a challenge last week, but I expect a return to form for Buffalo.

 

          I enthusiastically lay the points with the Bills.

 

Cleveland at KC (-10.5)

 

          I know everything has changed now that KC won a Superbowl and Andy Reid has been vindicated at last, and he really was brilliant for all those years but sometimes you’re just unlucky, etc. etc. etc.

 

          Maybe.

 

          Here is some of what I wrote in 2019:

 

                    Since the 1970 merger of the NFL and the AFL…KC has made it to ONE AFC Championship game, which it lost.  I know the players were different, I know the coaches were different, I know everything was different, but still….

 

                                                *

 

          And then there’s Andy Reid, the Jacques Who of football coaches, who always wins ten or twelve games a season but can never win the big one.  How many times have we seen that goofy, befuddled, fourth-quarter look on his puss as the clock ticks down in yet another game he should have won but is losing by 14?

 

                                                *

 

          And then there’s Andy, of course.  Despite all his disciples in the NFL coaching fraternity (who are rather tediously listed during every national broadcast of a KC game), the tale of Andy Reid has one recurring theme---losing the big one.  And while his QB, Mahomes, is the most entertaining player in the league, and while the Kansas City Chiefs have the best yards/pass numbers this year and should be the favorite to win it all, I just don’t believe it. Andy always finds a way to lose a critical game he should win by two touchdowns, and I fear this matchup might be the one.

 

            Even beyond Andy himself, the franchise is cursed.  The last time the Chiefs won a home playoff game was a wee bit over twenty-five years ago, on January 8, 1994, when they squeaked by the Steelers 27-24 in OT.  Since then, KC has gone 1-10, its only triumph a wildcard victory in Houston on January 9, 2016.  Four of the ten losses have come in this exact situation, with the Chiefs earning a bye and then losing their first home game in Division Week.

 

            I know Cleveland appears unlikely to win this game.  K.C.’s 7.4 AYP is superior to Cleveland’s 6.6, and the Chiefs have a better pass defense as well.  Cleveland was outscored by their opponents while the Chiefs averaged seven points more than their opposition.  And yes, Baker Mayfield is not Patrick Mahomes, and he never will be.

 

          Still, this is EXACTLY the sort of game Andy Reid has become famous for losing.  Until the Superbowl win, of course.  Now all is forgotten.

 

          Without the Andy Reid factor, I probably pass this game since 10.5 is too big a number to lay with any confidence in a Divisional Weekend game.  But Andy Reid is always a factor whenever he is coaching, so I’m betting Cleveland.

 

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3)

 

          They’re calling it the AARP Bowl, starring the two oldest QBs in the free world.

 

          I don’t see much to separate them.  The AYP is 6.8 to 6.7 in favor of New Orleans, which also has a slightly better pass defense.  The Saints outscored their opponents by 9.1 points; the Bucs by 8.6.  Tampa was 7-2 in blowouts and New Orleans was 7-1.

 

          The Saints, as the home team and the higher seed, have a slight edge, but I think the 3-point line is just about right.

 

          I pass.

 

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