Tampa Bay @ Green Bay (-3.5)
I have
a theory about this game.
In the
Tampa Bay---New Orleans game, the Saints looked like the better team for the
entire first half. Then the second half
happened, and what had looked like a football contest turned into a mugging.
So here’s
my theory---it was Tom Brady, who has a lot of rings but always seems to want
another one. He persuaded his teammates
that he can get them a ring too, and
all they have to do is give him everything they have, mentally, spiritually,
and violently for the next three weeks.
They know it is unlikely they will have another year with Tom Brady, and
they know many of them will never have another shot at a ring. And they are professional football players,
so they really really really want a Superbowl ring.
That’s
what happened to the New Orleans Saints in the second half, and that may well
be what will happen to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. On October 18, the Packers went to Tampa Bay
and were crushed 38-10, their only defeat of the season by ten or more
points. The Bucs remember that game, so
they know it is possible to pummel the Packers.
Green
Bay’s AYP of 7.7 is the highest in the tournament and is a full yard better
than Tampa’s, though the Bucs appear to have a slightly better defense. Each outscored their opponents by almost 9
ppg, and had strong records in games decided by ten or more points. They are both good teams, with good numbers,
and if this game were simply a matter of AYP, I would have to take the Packers
to cover the spread.
But I
have to pass.
Buffalo at K.C. (-3.5)
The
problem with having to go through the concussion protocol this week is that the
first thing they ask you is, “Who is the Vice President?” And it’s not a very easy question at the
moment. When Mahomes got clocked in the
second half on Sunday, the VP was Mike Pence, so that would have been a good
answer. But now it’s Kamala Harris,
right? And she’s completely different. She’s a chick, for one thing. And she’s “Asian,” I guess, because they keep
saying she’s Asian even though you would never mistake her for Bruce Lee. But that’s identity politics. Identity politics is hard for any of us, so
imagine what it’s like for football players.
And don’t
forget Joe Biden. I mean, he was the
Vice President for a long time, so if you ask somebody coming out of a stupor
who the VP is, well, “Joe Biden” is not the exactly CORRECT answer, but it’s
not a terrible answer, especially if you are a football player and they don’t
really expect you to know this stuff, and they normally don’t care if you do
UNTIL YOU GET A CONCUSSION AND THEY WANT YOU TO PLAY IN THE AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
GAME.
Take
Buffalo here, and not just because Mahomes is still in concussion limbo and may
not play. He probably will play. In fact, we will all be amazed if he doesn’t
play. Buffalo, coming into this game, is
better.
Kansas
City does have the highest AYP in the AFC, at 7.4, but Buffalo is only a couple
ticks behind. Buffalo also has a
superior pass defense and a better point differential over its regular-season
opponents. Buffalo also won eight games
that were decided by ten or more points and lost only one of them.
The
Chiefs and Bills met on October 19 and the Chiefs won that encounter 26-17, in
a game where K.C. actually had more rushing yards than passing yards (extremely
unusual for any NFL team, and especially for one coached by Andy Reid). Impressive, but not nearly as impressive as
the crunch the Bills laid on their final six regular season opponents, winning
by an average of 20 ppg.
While
arguments can be made for the Chiefs, the important numbers are very close
between these two, and the Bills seem to be on the rise while the Chiefs are
treading water. And then there are the
questions about Mahomes’ condition.
I’m
taking the Bills and the points.
Copyright2021MichaelKubacki
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment