2013 NFL PLAYOFFS---ROUND 2

The NFC

These are the hard ones, of course. Atlanta, San Francisco, Seattle, Green Bay---no one (outside of Massachusetts and Colorado) would be astonished to see one of these teams win the Superbowl, so the two winners this weekend are anybody's guess. Both lines, by gametime, will be close to a field goal, with Atlanta favored over Seattle and San Fran favored over the Pack.

I see a real edge for Seattle in its game against Atlanta. Offensively, their passing attacks are both very efficient but the Seattle pass defense is significantly better than Atlanta's. Seattle's defense, in fact, is largely the reason Seattle outscored its opponents by 167 points this year, while Atlanta outscored its foes by only 120.

On the other hand, Atlanta had a week off and gets to play at home.

Prognosticating ain't easy (that's why they pay me so much money), but I have to go with the Seahawks. When a team that is demonstrably superior is getting points in a playoff game, you must take that team.

I pass on the other contest. San Fran's yards/pass numbers are a wee bit better than Green Bay's and the 49er's are legitimate favorites in this game. They also are at home, of course, and there's no tundra in the “city by the bay,” even in January, so there's no reason NOT to bet the 49ers. But I won't. Maybe it's Aaron Rodgers and how cute he is in those insurance commercials. Maybe it's the specter of that game on September 9, the first game of the season, when San Francisco beat Green Bay IN GREEN BAY by a score of 30 – 22. Maybe it's my loathing for Nancy Pelosi. I don't know. I just can't climb aboard the San Francisco bandwagon just yet, though I acknowledge they have put up the best numbers in the NFC.

The AFC

These, by contrast, are the easy ones. I will be amazed if New England and Denver do not win, and so will you. Each is favored by more than a touchdown, and they deserve to be. These are point spread games, so the question is whether either game will be a true blowout or whether the underdog will be able to keep it close.

Denver dominates Baltimore in yards/pass, both offensively and defensively. Let me reiterate part of that: Denver's pass defense is a LOT better than Baltimore's, despite the primitive Jungian memories buried deep within all of us of extraordinary Baltimore defenses going back to the Pleistocene Era. Forget that. Denver is much better, on both sides of the ball, which is why the Broncos outscored their opponents by 8 points more per game than the Ravens did. Denver is scary, while Baltimore went 10 – 6 in a weak division. This game is over in the third quarter. I lay the points with Denver.

If you follow football at all, you have probably noticed the slightly creepy similarities between Bill Belichick and Richard Nixon. The jowls. The forehead. The paranoia. The smile that, like Nixon's, always looks like somebody just told him to “Smile!” so he tries to do so even though he doesn't quite know how and he wouldn't like it much even if he did. Have you noticed that as Belichick ages, the physical resemblance is increasing?

What am I trying to say here? I acknowledge Belichick is a football genius (though it doesn't hurt your status as a genius to have Tom Brady as your QB).  New England's continuing dominance under Belichick is an amazing story of sports success. They will almost certainly beat Houston. And yet....

I just don't trust the bastard. He's the kind of guy who, if his bowels are out of whack this week, might start bombing Cambodia rather than game-planning for Houston. Psychologically, Belichick is trouble. I'm not sure I trust Giselle either, for that matter. New England is a twisted team, mentally speaking, for a number of reasons.

And when I look at the numbers, the game could be close. New England is the second-best team in the AFC in yards/pass, point differential, etc., but Houston is third. In addition, Houston's pass defense is clearly superior to that of the Patriots. Then there was that 42 – 14 whipping the Pats put on Houston on December 10^th. Houston remembers that game, and if that debacle helps anyone, it helps them, not the Patriots. The 42 -14 score is not an accurate reflection of the relative strengths of these two teams.

New England wins. Maybe they win big. But I'm not touching it.

Copyright2013MichaelKubacki