2022 NFL PLAYOFFS---Wildcard Week

           I refer the reader to previous articles on my NFL playoff predictions for the philosophy that guides me.  In a nutshell, the teams that win the NFL playoffs are teams that can complete long passes.  The best defensive teams rarely win.  Teams with run-based offenses never win.  What you have to do to win a Superbowl is throw the ball down the field.

 

          For this reason, my primary tool is a number I call AYP, or “adjusted yards per pass.”  This is the number of yards gained passing during the season divided by the number of passes thrown, and adjusted downward for the number of interceptions thrown.  A very good team will have an AYP over 7 for the season.  An AYP of 6 is pretty good.  Teams with an AYP under 5 do not play games in the month of February.

 

          PRETENDERS are those teams with very little chance of winning a game.  This year, they are Las Vegas, Pittsburgh and Philly.

 

          CONTENDERS are the teams nobody would be surprised to see in the Superbowl.  Usually, there are two or three.  This year there are six because no one at the top appears invincible:  KC, Buffalo, New England, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and Dallas.

 

          COULD GET LUCKY is where I put the franchises that I think (follow me here), could get lucky.  Some of them, perhaps most, will win a game or two.  They tend to have something wonderful going for them or they are peaking at the right time or they have a relatively easy path to the Superbowl.  They are:  Tennessee, Cincinnati, LA Rams, Arizona, and San Fran.

 

LV Raiders @ Cincy -5.5

          Vegas is one of those teams that manages to sneak into the playoffs having been outscored by its opponents---by 65 points.  Cincy certainly had its ugly moments (losing to the Jets once and Cleveland twice), but did win the AFC North and outscore its foes by 85 points.  Both these teams appear to going backwards, but Cincinnati started from so much higher a level than Vegas that the Bengals should be able to win and cover this spot.

          Neither is distinguished for their pass defense, but on the offensive side, the Bengals posted a 7.4 AYP.  This was the best number in the AFC, and considerably better than the Raiders’ 6.5.

          I can bet Cincy here.

 

New England @ Buffalo -4.5

          On December 6, the Patriots went to Buffalo in a very cold game with wind gusts of 40 mph.  New England threw three passes that night, for twelve yards, and beat the Bills 14-10.  The game is now Exhibit A in the increasingly popular theory that Josh Allen doesn’t like bad weather.

          This Sunday night promises minus-number wind chills and, while high winds are not predicted, rain and snow are a distinct possibility.

          Looking at the numbers, both the Pats and the Bills have scored a lot of points this year and they may have the two best pass defenses in the tournament, though there are other contenders.  New England’s AYP, however, is 6.4 vs. Buffalo’s 5.6, so I have to give the Patriots the edge.

          I would make this game a toss-up, so I will take the points that come with the Patriots.

 

Philly @ Tampa Bay -9.5

          There’s no reason to think Philadelphia can win this game.  Over the course of the season, the Iggles were 1 – 7 against teams with winning records, and the one win was against the Saints, who only became a winning team when they beat Atlanta in their finale to go 9 – 8 overall.  The Iggles are not one of the 14 best teams in the NFL.

          The teams played in Philly on October 14, and Brady barely broke a sweat in building a third-quarter 28-7 lead.  Fifteen meaningless points later, the game ended with Tampa still on top at 28-22.

          And that’s the problem here---the 9.5 point line.  Tampa’s AYP is better than the Eagle’s, their pass defense is much better than the Eagle’s pass defense, and while Jalen Hurts is a very nice young man, Tom Brady has been in ten Superbowls and has won seven of them.  Tampa is at least 9.5 points better than the Eagles, and I expect them to be ahead by two touchdowns or more at some point in the game, but a back-door cover by the Philadelphians is as likely as not.

          I must pass, though the Bucs will win.

          All of which reminds me, for no particular reason, of my hope for the new name of “The Washington Football Team,” which will be announced on February 2.  I want them to be called “The Landover Maryland Football Team.”

 

San Francisco @ Dallas -3

          The 49ers are being touted by some wise guys as a team that can beat the Cowboys, and it is true that they have improved as the season progressed, but so have the Cowboys.  SF has outscored their last six opponents by an average of 5 points per game, but Dallas has outscored their last six by 16 per game.  San Fran has the worst pass defense in the entire tournament, while Dallas has the best in the NFC.  San Fran has a losing record against winning teams, while Dallas does not.  Dallas scored a hundred more points this year than the 49ers, and gave up (a few) less.

          What San Francisco does have is an AYP of 7.3, which is the highest in the NFC by a small amount.  The Dallas AYP is 6.8.  If you want to bet the 49ers, that is what you are counting on---that Garoppolo will be able to complete more long passes than Prescott will.  Considering that Dallas leads the NFL in interceptions, I’m not buying it.

          I’m taking Dallas, laying the three points, and expecting a comfortable win.

 

Pittsburgh @ KC -13

           Three weeks ago, Pittsburgh went to Kansas City and played a Chiefs team weakened by a COVID outbreak that kept three starters out of the game, including Travis Kelce.  Nevertheless, KC took a 30-0 lead midway through the third quarter on the way to a 36-10 win.  The only reason to think this game will have a different result is that Andy Reid has an inexplicable habit of, once in a while, taking a vastly superior and heavily-favored team and losing to an inferior foe by three touchdowns.  (See, e.g., the 2021 Superbowl.)

          In the last six games. KC has outscored its opponents by 84 points; Pittsburgh has been outscored by 12.  KC’s AYP is 6.4.  Pittsburgh’s AVP is 5.2, the worst number in the field.  A “blowout” in my lexicon means a game decided by 9 or more points.  Pittsburgh has been blown out five times this year.

          Laying thirteen points is always a gamble and carries with it the danger of the better team going out to a large lead and then giving up enough meaningless scores to lose the cover.  I will take that chance here, though I wouldn’t do it in the Philly at Tampa game.  I lay the points and pray that Andy doesn’t forget he has a game Sunday.

 

Arizona @ Rams -4

          Looking at the overall numbers for both teams this season, this appears to be a fairly even match-up.  They split their two division games with each winning on the road.  They scored and gave up about the same number of points over the full season.  Arizona’s AYP is 6.9 versus 6.6 for the Rams.  On the other side of the ball, the Rams’ pass defense might be a shade better.

          What separates the two is that the Rams are rising as the Cardinals are fading.  The Rams won five of their last six, losing only their last game, in overtime, to the 49ers.  In the process they outscored their opponents by 52 points.  Arizona went 2-4 in their last six and were outscored by 25.

          The Cardinal swoon is troubling, and it’s not the way you want to come into the playoffs.  Therefore, the Rams must be favored, and four points sounds about right.  I can’t bet this one.

 

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