2022 NFL PLAYOFFS---Conference Championships

 

          I went two out of three last weekend (I had the Packers, Cincy and KC), for a current total of 4-3.  I also said the Bungles would win outright, so I give myself an extra pat on the butt for that one.

 

          Here are the regular-season AYP numbers for the four remaining teams:

          Cincinnati            7.4

          San Francisco      7.3

          LA Rams             6.6

          Kansas City         6.4

 

          And here are the AYP numbers for the two playoff games:

          Cincinnati            7.6

          San Francisco      4.6

          LA Rams           10.9

          Kansas City         8.7

My two selections this week are dictated largely by my system and the numbers.

 

          Cincy @ KC -7

          The Bengals are at least as good at throwing down the field as KC is.  The pass defenses are comparable and they both have a decent, but not dominating, running game.

          The Bengals beat the Chiefs 34-31 on January 2.  I’m not going to predict that Cincinnati will win this game, though it would not surprise me.  But I am comfortable taking the seven points with a crew that I suspect is slightly better than the Chiefs, but may not be as flamboyant or exciting.

 

          San Fran @ LA Rams -3.5

          I fear the San Francisco 49ers because nothing in my philosophy explains how they got here.  I can try to ignore the Dallas game because Prescott is a mutt who is capable of losing to anyone in the playoffs.  The victory over Green Bay is baffling, however.  Garoppolo, who commanded an offense that scored a total of two touchdowns in dispatching the Girls and the Packers, should not prevail over Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay.  Yet he did.

          But I have no choice but to take the Rams.  In contrast to the 49ers, they have posted two excellent passing performances in beating the Cardinals and the Bucs.  Also, their regular-season pass defense was significantly better than the 49er’s, (though there can be no complaints about the SF pass defense at the moment).

          San Fran beat the Rams twice this season, the last time on January 9, in Los Angeles, in OT.  So maybe it comes down to the usual wisdom from the usual geniuses, that it’s VERY difficult to beat a team three times in the same year.  I’m taking the Rams to win that third game after dropping the first two, and I’m laying the points.

 

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