2020 NFL PLAYOFFS---Wild Card Week

2020 NFL Playoffs---Wild Card Week

The Pretenders---Philly, Seattle, Houston, Buffalo, and Tennessee

Could Get Lucky---Green Bay, Minnesota

Contenders---San Fran, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City, New England

          As always, I rank these teams by a number I call Adjusted Yards/Pass (“AYP”), which is a measure of the ability to make big pass plays.  The “adjustment” aspect of it involves interceptions, which I use to reduce the actual yards/pass a team has achieved during the season.  I also look at Defensive Adjusted Yards/Pass, which is not nearly as important because defense is not nearly as important as offense in winning the Superbowl.  Finally, I note point differentials, and team records in blow-out wins of ten or more points.  Very good teams will normally have a number of blow-out wins during the season and very few blow-out losses.

          And then there’s Lamar Jackson.

          Baltimore has an AYP of 6.4, which is the seventh best of the twelve teams in the tournament.  Their defensive AYP is only the fifth best.  Based solely on these numbers, Baltimore would appear to be a team that might win a game or two, but probably wouldn’t make it to February.  The Lamar Jackson factor, however, is why they have the highest point differential (15.6 points/game) in the league, why they have won nine of the ten blow-outs they have been involved in, why they scored more points than any other team and, of course, why they are the top seed in the AFC.  Defensive coordinators have yet to solve the Lamar Jackson conundrum and until they do, Baltimore will be the favorite to win it all.  I’m going to pick against them in the AFC Championship game on January 19 because that’s what my numbers will tell me to do, but I will not be shocked or confounded if Mr. Jackson proves me wrong.

          Starting with the NFC, four teams are tightly bunched at the top of the AYP list---New Orleans (6.8), Seattle (6.8), Minnesota (6.7), and San Francisco (6.6).  Of these, however, SF has a clear edge in pass defense, an advantage in point differential (10.5), and a record of 7-0 in blow-outs.  New Orleans and Minnesota have very similar numbers for 2^nd and 3^rd favorites in the NFC, while Seattle is further back with the worst pass defense in the tournament.  Green Bay, despite having a week off as the 2-seed, is one of the weaker NFC combatants.

          The AFC, by contrast, has three dangerous contenders in KC, Baltimore and New England along with three others---Buffalo, Houston and Tennessee---who have little chance of success.  KC has the best AYP in the tournament at 7.4, New England has the best defensive AYP at 3.1, and Baltimore, of course, has Lamar Jackson.  All three teams have beaten their opponents by an average of more than 12 points per game.  It would be surprising if the AFC team were not favored in the Superbowl this year.

          Buffalo @ Houston -2.5.  Buffalo is the better team here in every category except AYP, where it trails by a small amount.  Houston has lost three blow-outs this year and actually has a negative point differential in the regular season. The game is in Houston, but with Buffalo sporting a 6-2 record on the road this year, I will gladly take the points and the Bills.

          Tennessee @ NE -5.  Tennessee has a very respectable AYP of 7.1, scored 402 points for the season, and achieved a notable victory over Kansas City in Week 10.  I don’t expect them to win in New England (in January!), but considering the Patriots’ difficulties scoring points over the last half of the season, the game could be close.  I pass this game, though if I were forced to choose, I would lay the points with the Pats.

          Minnesota @New Orleans -8.  You know, Kirk Cousins really did have a wonderful year.  His QB rating was 107.4, which was second in the league to another guy you probably never heard of named Drew Brees.  AYP for these two teams were 6.8 and 6.7, with defensive AYP also about the same.  Point differential was 7.3 for NO and 6.5 for the Vikings.  Just on the basis of raw numbers, I don’t see a lot of difference, which is why eight points looks like a lot to me.  I’m taking Minnesota.

          Seattle @ Philly +1.5.  These two are clearly at the bottom of the NFC barrel, with very small (but positive) point differentials and the two worst pass defenses in the conference.  Seattle is at least a wee bit better in every regard, and beat the Eagles 17-9, in Philly, in Week 12, in a game that could have gone either way.  This is a toss-up, and while I may have a dollar riding on the Eagles, I can’t recommend you do the same.  The logical bettor will pass this contest.

Copyright2020MichaelKubacki