Last
week’s results were one up and one down.
Buffalo went to OT with Houston and lost by a field goal, so my +2.5
made me a loser. On the plus side,
Minnesota won outright as an 8-point dog.
This
week pits the four bye-week teams against the wild-card winners. The wild-card winners are all underdogs, as
they should be, but the point spreads may offer some opportunities.
Minnesota
@ San Fran -7
Minnesota
tends to get little respect in a spot like this, partly because Captain Kirk
still gets no respect and partly because the 49ers have been the best team in
the NFC the entire year. San Fran’s
stock went down a little bit at the end when their season concluded with a
brutal stretch of five games in which they gave up a few more points than they
had in the first half of the season. Still,
when you play Baltimore, New Orleans, Atlanta, the Rams and Seattle and you win
three of them, and all the games are decided by a touchdown or less, I can’t be
all that critical.
Minnesota’s
AYP, however, is 6.7 and San Francisco’s is only 6.6, reflecting the fact that
the 49ers key ingredient for victory was the best defense in the NFC. The offense was respectable, but only 4th
best in the Conference.
Other
measures would seem to favor the 49ers.
They were 7-0 in blow-outs (Minn was 8-1), and their point differential
was 10.5 points per game compared to Minnesota’s 6.5.
I was
hoping the line would be posted as 8 or 9, at which point I could take the
Vikings with few reservations. At 7
points, I am not as enthusiastic but I will still take Minnesota. The 49ers should prevail, but the line is too
high.
Tennessee
@ Baltimore -10
Yes, I
know Baltimore is the favorite to win it all, and yes, I know they beat their
opponents by an average of 15.6 points/game, highest in the league. And yes, it worries me that nobody has really
come up with a solution to the problem of Lamar Jackson.
However,
Baltimore’s AYP is 6.4 and Tennessee’s is 7.1, and if my theory of what wins in
the playoffs means anything, it means I have to take the 10 points with the
Titans.
The
reason AYP is important, at least in theory, is that at some point in the
playoffs, a team will be put in a situation where they must make some big
plays, take the ball down the field and score quickly. If Tennessee wins, or even keeps it close, it
will be because Baltimore will be unable to do that.
Houston
@ KC -10
And
here’s the other 10-point line. And this
one appears to be a mismatch.
Kansas
City boasts the highest AYP in the tournament, at 7.4, which is far superior to
Houston’s 5.8. In addition, the KC
defensive AYP is also a yard and a half better than Houston’s. The chiefs outscored their opponents by 15.2
points per game. Houston was outscored
for the season.
Kansas
City was 7 – 0 in blowouts this season, while Houston was blown out three
times. This will be their fourth.
Lay the
points with Andy. Yet again, he will
probably find a way NOT to win a championship, though he has the best team in
football this year. But it’s hard to
believe even Andy Reid can blow this game.
Seattle
@ Green Bay -4.5
Green
Bay looks to be the 4th best team in the NFC this year, and Seattle
is the 5th. Seattle has a
slight edge in AYP while Green Bay has a better pass defense. The differences are not large, and each team
has a wonderful passer. Russell Wilson
and Aaron Rodgers have each won a Superbowl, and nobody would be shocked if
either of them won another one, though their supporting casts this year make
that seem unlikely.
The bye
week matters some. The tundra matters
some. What matters most is that Aaron
Rodgers will be throwing against the weakest pass defense of the twelve teams
in the NFL tournament. I lay the points
with the Packers.
Copyright2020MichaelKubacki
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