2015 NFL PLAYOFFS - ROUND 2

Based on adjusted yards/pass numbers, none of these four games is close. New England is a half yard better on offense and .6 yards better on defense. Green Bay beats Dallas by a half yard on offense and .9 yards on defense. Denver is only .3 yards better than Indy on offense but 1.6 yards better on D. Seattle is 1.1 yard better than Carolina on offense and .8 yards on defense. All four home favorites should win.

But that's not always how it works, is it?

At the beginning of each season, the playoff dream of every coach and player in the NFL is the same: win enough games to get a top seed in the Conference, then: 1) bye, 2) home win, 3) home win, 4) Superbowl win. Considering how universal the desire, it's surprising just how infrequently this happens. Of the fourteen Superbowls played in this millennium, only four teams have gone bye/homeW/homeW/SuperW. These were the 2004 Patriots, the 2009 Steelers, the 2010 Saints and the 2014 Seahawks. The other ten championships were won by teams with at least one road victory along the way. The 2013 Baltimore Ravens had two road wins, one of which came in Foxborough, Mass. The 2012 Giants also had two (this was the year I kept telling you the Giants were the worst team in the playoffs, even after their two road wins). The 2011 Packers and the 2008 Giants each had three road wins on the way to their Superbowl victories.

Even I am capable of learning things, and after doing these predictions for several years now, this is what I have learned: if you win a road game in the NFL playoffs, you are a real threat to win it all. When you win on the road, you are a contender, no matter what my numbers say. Winning on the road is a BIG DEAL. (Or, as Joe Biden would put it, a “big f***ing deal!”)

As of which brings us to...

Baltimore @ N.E. (-7) The Patriots have better numbers, but they have the smallest advantage of any of the four favorites and the Ravens are proven road warriors, having won at Pittsburgh last week. Also, let's not forget that win in Foxborough two years ago. There are very few teams that win in New England in December and there are even fewer that win in January, and maybe a win two years ago doesn't mean much this weekend, but Harbaugh and Belichick and Brady and Flacco remember it.

Speaking of Flacco, he's not cute and southern and laid-back like Peyton and he's not self-deprecating and quiet like Rodgers, and he doesn't do commercials for big insurance companies, but he's a very nice player. His record in the playoffs is 10 – 4 and he owns a ring. Also, he has been in the league for seven years and I don't believe he has missed a game to injury.

This is a close call, but I'm taking the points with Baltimore.

Carolina @ Seattle (-11) The Panthers won the first round at home so we can't properly call them playoff road warriors, but their final regular-season game was a 34-3 thrashing of Atlanta, in Atlanta, to win their division, so that kinda sorta puts them in the category (and certainly made me take notice).

What I really like about Carolina is that they awakened on the morning of December 7 with a record of 3–8–1, and now have fought their way to the second round of the playoffs. I also like the 11 point spread.

It is possible, of course, that Cam Newton will complete his first two passes to Seattle ubercornerback Richard Sherman and find himself behind by two touchdowns 90 seconds into the game. At that point, Carolina players start taking out their cell phones to secure tee times at Pinehurst for Monday. Much more likely, however, is that both teams struggle to score and one of them wins a 16-14 war of attrition. Taking Carolina here is not about Cam Newton, it's about believing in the Panther's defense, and in their current magical mojo. I do.

When you bet against Seattle this time of year, you not only have to beat Seattle, but the referees as well. Nevertheless, I take the 11 points.

Indianapolis @ Denver (-7) In contrast to the first two games, one looks in vain for some magical mojo. By any measure, Denver is far superior and Indy would appear to be just another dome team going on the road in January. I do not discount Andrew Luck, who will someday win one or more Superbowls, but at this stage of his career, going on the road to beat a really good team is not something he can be counted upon to do. Take Denver minus the 7.

Dallas @ Green Bay (-6) And this is the easiest pick of the week. Green Bay has been the best team in football this year, and Dallas (like Indy) is a dome team going on the road (to Lambeau!) in January. Last week, at home, in a game dominated by the Lions, Dallas squeaked out a victory with considerable assistance from the zebras. What's to like about the Cowboys in this spot? Chris Christie's lucky sweater?

Romo has had one of his best years and he has now won two playoff games in his 11-year career, but he will have to wait until next year to win his third. Take Green Bay and be thrilled you are not being asked to lay two touchdowns.

Copyright2015MichaelKubacki