2015 NFL PLAYOFFS---CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

Often wrong but never uncertain---that's me and I'm proud of it. So even though I am a mere 2 – 4 against the spread on these games so far, I'll be happy to tell you who's going to win these games. And don't worry. You can rely on me. Bet the house.

Indy at New England (-7). Offensive yards/pass numbers are about even---NE has 6.1 and Indy has 6.0. New England's yard/pass on defense, however is superior---5.3 to 5.9. Also, as a general matter, the smart guys will tell you that the Colts' defense is not very scary. By my numbers, Indianapolis can't win this game, but of course, they couldn't beat Denver last week either. And that's the problem. The Colts are dangerous. A road win in the playoffs is a meaningful event. I like the Pats to win this game, but I wouldn't lay these points.

Green Bay @ Seattle (-7). Have they given the Superbowl trophy to the Seahawks yet? The games are just a formality, right? And what about the Stanley Cup? Did they give them the Stanley Cup too? That's the way is seems, doesn't it? Seattle's back. It's over.

Green Bay wins the yds/pass matchup by a 7.3 to 6.4 tally, with defensive yds/pass equal. Green Bay is, by my basic measure of playoff competence, better than the Seahawks, and they are getting 7 points as well. I like the Packers to win this game, and even if they don't, I certainly like them with the points.

Countervailing considerations include the following: 1) Seattle is at home where they are very good and Green Bay is on the road, where they are not, 2) the Packers were underdogs three times this year (at Seattle, New Orleans and Detroit) and they got toasted on all three occasions, and 3) Aaron Rodgers has one leg.  Problems.  I admit it.  So don't bet the house.  Just the Mercedes.  

Perhaps the biggest reason I like Green Bay is that the Seahawks are the best defensive team in the league and the best defensive team almost never wins the Superbowl. For the best defensive team to win it two years in a row? Well, I doubt it has ever happened.

Copyright2015MichaelKubacki