This Tuesday, May 16, Philadelphia will elect its next mayor. It is actually a primary election, so the result will not be final until the general election in November, but with Philly’s 7-1 edge for Democrats in registration, the winner of the Democratic primary almost can’t lose. The last time there was a Republican mayor was 1952, and Republicans long ago gave up the ghost on mounting some sort of opposition to Democratic rule.
For
most of my life, ethnicity and skin color was the primary concern of voters in
Philadelphia. Italians voted for
Italians, Irish voted for Irish, and blacks voted for blacks. In the 1970s, Judge William Marutani was
elected to the Court of Common Pleas twice, pulling close to 100% of voters
with Italian ancestry. He was actually
of Japanese descent, but he NEVER let his photograph be taken.
Around
1990, the city became majority non-white, and it was assumed that Ed Rendell
(1992-2000) would be the last white mayor Philly would ever have. And in fact, for the next sixteen years, John
Street and Michael Nutter, two black men who knew how to play the game, held
the office.
Then in
2016, an interesting thing happened. Jim
Kenney, a white leftist with a familiar ethnic name and experience in city
government, rolled to victory. At the
time, there were plenty of crusty old wise guys in Philly politics who said
Kenney could never be elected, but as often happens, the wise guys are often
the last people to see that the old paradigm has crumbled and been replaced
with something new.
While
identity politics is very much alive in Philadelphia, old-fashioned race
hustling went out of style while nobody was watching. John Street (2000-2008), was probably the
last pure practitioner of it. He had
been a rabble-rouser in North Philly and had worked his way into the
establishment as a City Councilman, but he was a product of the streets. His successor, Michael Nutter, was also
black, and he knew how to play the card, but he had been educated at prep
schools and was something of a nerd.
Then came Kenney, the white radical.
In its
simplest terms, young black voters became ideological. Increasing numbers of young black people went
to college, and inhaled the leftist indoctrination that takes place there. Also, the race politics of the past were
embodied by men like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson, who were now geezers and increasingly
viewed as an embarrassment. It was no
longer necessary to vote for someone with your skin color or ethnicity. You could now vote for the most leftwing candidate
no matter who he was.
Which
brings us to the election three days from now.
Of the
nine candidates, four of them are throwaways with 2% of the vote or less. The other five, in a poll two weeks ago, were
in a five-way tie. The winner (and
nobody knows that will be), will probably get 20% of the vote. Nobody will get 25%.
Of the
five, three are white---two businessmen and a woman with experience in city
government. One is a woman of Asian
descent. And one is a middle-aged black
woman, the “establishment” candidate, who has been involved in politics since
she was a teenager and has held a number of elected offices.
Twenty
years ago, this would have been a no-brainer---the one black candidate (Cherelle
Parker), would win since she would get a few white votes and ALL the black
ones. That does not, however, appear to be what is going to happen.
My
prediction is that Philly will elect the most radical leftist who has at least some
experience in government or elected office.
That is Helen Gym. Bernie Sanders
and AOC are coming to a rally for her tomorrow, and thousands of lefties from
all over the country are knocking on doors for her this weekend. For several years, under Mayor Kenney, Philly
has been sliding into crime and drugs and homelessness. Police get arrested for doing their jobs, so
they don’t do their jobs as much as they used to, and many of them have retired. All that will continue at an accelerated pace
if Gym is elected.
Copyright2023MichaelKubacki
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